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House Races Analysis

by BooMan
Wed May 14th, 2008 at 05:57:03 PM EST

To get a sense for how vulnerable the Republican House members are, I looked at every Republican-held seat in the country that has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+10 or less. The seat the Republicans lost in Mississippi last night has a PVI of R+10. I also added in a few seats that are more Republican than R+10 but which have very well funded Democrats in the race.

As you'll see there are over seventy-five potentially competitive seats, and another thirty or so that could be competitive if the Dems find a candidate, or if the candidate improves their fundraising, or if the DCCC can devote enough money to make up for a financial disadvantage.

Simply put, the Republicans should be absolutely terrified. More than a third of their seats are in jeopardy.

You can look up the the cash-on-hand for every candidate here. I used the following format for each seat:

Congressional District (CD), Partisan Voting Index (PVI), Incumbent/Open Seat, Challenger, Challenger's Cash on Hand (COH). Enjoy.

Alabama

CD-02 (R+13)- (Open Seat)- Bobby Bright- COH: 46,000
CD-03 (R+4)- (Mike Rogers)- Josh Segall- COH: 223,000
CD-05 (R+6)- (Open Seat)- R. Parker Griffith- COH: 112,000

Alaska (Primary Date: 8/26/08)

CD-AL (R+14)- (Don Young) - Ethan Berkowitz- COH: 287,000. Diane Benson- COH: 45,000

Arizona (Primary Date: 9/2/08)

CD-01 (R+2)- (Open Seat)- Ann Kirkpatrick- COH: 465,000. Jeff Riley- COH: 216,000
CD-02 (R+9)- (Trent Franks)- John Thrasher- COH: 12,500
CD-03 (R+6)- (John Shadegg)- Bob Lord- COH: 632,000

California (Primary Date: 6/3/08)

CD-03 (R+7)- (Dan Lungren)- Bill Durston- COH: 128,000
CD-19 (R+10)- (George Radanovich)- no challenger
CD-24 (R+5)- (Elton Gallegly, possible retirement. Michael Tenenbaum has COH: 123,000)- Mary Pallant- COH: 10,500. Jill Martinez- COH: 3,000.
CD-25 (R+7)- (Buck McKeon)- Jacquese Lynn Conaway- COH: 151 dollars. Seriously.
CD-26 (R+4)- (David Dreier)- Russ Warner- COH: 244,000
CD-40 (R+8)- (Ed Royce)- No challenger has any COH.
CD-41 (R+9)- (Jerry Lewis, under investigation)- Tim Prince- COH: 107,000
CD-42 (R+10)- (Gary Miller)- Edwin Chau- COH: 32,000. Ron 'Kossack' Shepston- COH: 10,000.
CD-44 (R+6)- (Ken Calvert, Abramoff problems)- Bill Hedrick- COH: 12,000. Louis Vandenberg- COH: 10,000.
CD-45 (R+3)- (Mary Bono)- Julie Bornstein- COH: 104,000 (self-funder).
CD-46 (R+6)- (Dana Rohrabacher)- Debbie Cook- COH: 32,000.
CD-48 (R+8)- (John Campbell)- Steve Young- COH: 10,000...and debt of 223,000. Not sure about that story.
CD-49 (R+10)- (Darrell Issa)- Bob Hamilton- COH: 21,000
CD-50 (R+5)- (Brian Bilbray)- Nick Liebham- COH: 240,000
CD-52 (R+9)- (Open Seat, Duncan Hunter's son running to replace him)- Mike Lumpkin- COH: 80,000

Colorado (Primary Date: 8/12/08)

CD-03 (R+6)- (Marilyn Musgrave)- Betsy Markey- COH: 376,000
CD-06 (R+10)- (Open Seat)- Henry Eng- COH: 13,000

Connecticut

CD-04 (D+5)- (Chris Shays)- Jim Himes- COH- 1,025,000

Delaware (Primary Date: 9/9/08)

CD-AL (D+7)- (Michael Castle)- no challenger has any significant COH. Kossack Jerry Northington is a candidate in the race.

Florida (Primary Date: 8/26/08)

CD-05 (R+5)- (Ginny Brown-Waite)- no challengers with COH.
CD-06 (R+8)- (Cliff Stearns)- no challengers with COH.
CD-07 (R+3)- (John Mica)- no challengers with COH.
CD-08 (R+3)- (Rik Keller)- Charles Stuart- COH: 316,000. James Smith- COH: 296,000
CD-09 (R+4)- (Gus Bilirakis)- John Dicks- COH: 312,000. Bill Mitchell- COH: 149,000
CD-12 (R+5)- (Adam Putnam) no challengers with COH.
CD-13 (R+4)- (Vern Buchanan)- Christine Jennings- COH: 483,000
CD-14 (R+10)- (Connie Mack)- Larry Byrnes- COH: 55,000
CD-15 (R+4)-(Open Seat)- Steve Blythe- COH: 12,000. Paul Rancatore- COH: 6,300
CD-18 (R+6)- (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)- Annette Taddeo- COH: 300,000
CD-21 (R+6)- (Lincoln Diaz-Balart)- Raul Martinez- COH: 593,000
CD-24 (R+3)- (Tom Feeney)- Suzanne Kosmos- COH: 581,000
CD-25 (R+4)- (Mario Diaz-Balart)- Joe Garcia- COH: 316,000

Idaho

CD-01 (R+19)- (Bill Sali)- Walt Minnich- COH: 328,000

Illinois

CD-06 (R+3)- (Peter Roskam)- Jill Morgenthaler- COH: 163,000
CD-11 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Debbie Halvorson- COH: 673,000
CD-13 (R+5)- (Judy Biggert)- Scott Harper- COH: 103,000
CD-15 (R+6)- (Tim Johnson)- no challenger with COH.
CD-16 (R+4)- (Don Manzullo)- Robert Abboud- COH: 64,000
CD-18 (R+5)- (Open Seat)- Colleen Callahan- COH: 107,000
CD-19 (R+8)- (John Shimkus)- Joe McMenamin- COH: 98,000

Indiana

CD-03 (R+16)- (Mark Souder)- Mike Montagano- COH: 268,000
CD-04 (R+17)- (Steve Buyer)- Nels Ackerson- COH: 150,000
Honorable mention:
CD-06 (R+11)- (Mike Pence)- Barry 'Tribber' Welsh- COH: 20,000

Iowa (Primary Date: 6/3/08)

CD-04 (D+0)- (Tom Latham)- Kurtis Meyer- COH: 108,000
CD-05 (R+8)- (Steve King)- Ron Hubler- COH: 47,000

Kentucky

CD-01 (R+10)- (Ed Whitfield)- no challenges with any COH.
CD-05 (R+8)- (Hal Rodgers)- no challengers with any COH.

Louisiana (Primary Date: 9/6/08)

CD-04 (R+5)- (Open Seat)- Paul Carmouche- COH: 109,000. Willie Banks- COH: 17,000
CD-05 (R+10)- (Rodney Alexander)- no opponent.

Maryland

CD-01 (R+10)- (Open Seat)- Frank Kratovil- COH: 182,000
CD-06 (R+13)- (Roscoe Bartlett)- Jennifer Dougherty- COH: 19,000

Michigan (Primary Date: 8/5/08)

CD-02 (R+9)- (Peter Hoekstra)- Fred Johnson- COH: 3,600
CD-03 (R+9)- (Vernon Ehlers)- no challenger
CD-04 (R+3)- (Dave Camp)- Andrew Concannon- COH: 16,000
CD-06 (R+2)- (Fred Upton)- no challenger
CD-07 (R+2)- (Tim Wahlberg)- Mark Schauer- COH: 751,000
CD-08 (R+2)- (Mike Rogers)- Robert Alexander- COH: 16,000
CD-09 (R+0)- (Joe Knollenberg)- Gary Peters- COH: 645,000
CD-10 (R+4)- (Candice Miller)- no challenger
CD-11 (R+1)- (Thad McCotter)- Ed Kiewall- COH: 7,000

Minnesota

CD-02 (R+3)- (John Kline)- Steve Sarvi- COH: 39,000
CD-03 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Ashwin Madia- COH: 190,000
CD-06 (R+5)- (Michelle Bachmann)- Elwyn Tinklenberg- COH: 102,000

Missouri (Primary Date: 8/5/08)

CD-02 (R+9)- (Todd Akin)- Byron Delear- COH: 116,000. Dave Pentland- COH: 66,000
CD-06 (R+5)- (Sam Graves)- Kay Barnes- COH: 954,000
CD-09 (R+7)- (Open Seat)- Judy Baker- COH: 188,000. Bob Gaw- COH: 102,000. Ken Jacob- COH: 74,000.

Nebraska

CD-02 (R+9)- (Terry Lee)- Jim Esch- COH: 88,000

Nevada (Primary Date: 8/12/08)

CD-02 (R+8)- (Dean Heller)- Jill Derby- COH: 134,000

New Jersey (Primary Date: 6/3/08)

CD-02 (D+4)- (Frank LaBiondo)- no challengers with COH.
CD-03 (D+3)- (Open Seat)- John Adler- COH: 1,003,000
CD-04 (R+1)- (Chris Smith)- Josh Zeitz- COH: 91,000
CD-05 (R+4)- (Scott Garrett)- Dennis Shulman- COH: 246,000. Camille Abate- COH: 116,000.
CD-07 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Linda Stender- COH: 845,000
CD-11 (R+6)- (Rodney Frelinghuysen)- Tom Wyka- COH: 13,000

New Mexico (Primary Date: 6/3/08)

CD-01 (D+2)- (Open Seat)- Martin Heinrich- COH: 342,000. Michelle Grisham- COH: 140,000
CD-02 (R+6)- (Open Seat)- Harry Teague- COH: 337,000. Bill McCamley- COH: 236,000.

New York (Primary Date: 9/9/08)

CD-02 (D+2)- (Peter King)- no challenger with COH.
CD-13 (D+1)- (Vito 'Secret Family' Fosselli)- Dom Recchia- COH: 325,000. Steve Harrison- COH: 91,000.
CD-23 (R+0)- (John McHugh)- Michael Oot- COH: 15,000
CD-25 (D+3)- (Open Seat)- Dan Maffei- COH: 676,000
CD-26 (R+3)- (Open Seat)- Jon Powers- COH: 402,000. Alice Kryzan- COH: 207,000
CD-29 (R+5)- (John Kuhl)- Eric Massa- COH: 565,000.

North Carolina

CD-08 (R+3)- (Robin Hayes)- Larry Kissell- COH: 131,000

Ohio

CD-01 (R+1)- (Steve Chabot)- Steve Dreihaus- COH: 567,000
CD-02 (R+13)- (Mean Jean Schmidt)- Vic Wulsin- COH: 212,000
CD-03 (R+3)- (Mike Turner)- Jane Mitakides- COH: 164,000
CD-05 (R+10)- (Bob Latta Jr.)- no opponent with COH.
CD-07 (R+6)- (Open Seat)- Sharon Neuhardt- COH: 50,000
CD-12 (R+1)- (Pat Tiberi)- Dave Robinson- COH: 8,000.
CD-14 (R+2)- (Steve LaTourette)- Bill O'Neill- COH: 47,000
CD-15 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Mary Jo Kilroy- COH: 944,000
CD-16 (R+4)- (Open Seat)- John Boccieri- COH: 250,000

Pennsylvania

CD-03 (R+2)- (Phil English)- Kathy Dahlkemper- COH: 74,000
CD-05 (R+10)- (Open Seat)- Mark McCracken- COH: 3,000
CD-18 (R+2)- (Tim Murphy)- Steve O'Donnell- COH: 200,000

South Carolina

CD-01 (R+10)- (Harry Brown)- Linda Ketner- COH: 130,000

Tennessee (Primary Date: 8/7/08)

CD-03 (R+8)- (Zach Wamp)- no opponent.

Texas

CD-07 (R+16)- (John Culberson)- Mike Skelly- COH: 667,000
CD-10 (R+13)- (Mike McCaul)- Larry Joe Doherty- COH: 122,000

Virginia (Primary Date: 6/10/08)

CD-01 (R+9)- (Bob Wittman)- Phil Forgit- COH: 11,200
CD-02 (R+6)- (Thelma Drake)- Glenn Nye- COH: 223,000
CD-04 (R+5)- (Randy Forbes)- no challenger with COH.
CD-05 (R+6)- (Virgil 'Nutso' Goode)- Tom Perriello- COH: 440,000
CD-10 (R+5)- (Frank Wolf)- Judy Feder- COH: 700,000
CD-11 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Gerry Connelly- COH: 422,000. Leslie Byrne- COH: 237,000. Doug Denneny- COH: 51,000.

Washington

CD-05 (R+7)- (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)- no challenger with COH.
CD-08 (D+2)- (Dave Reichert)- Darcy Burner- COH: 922,000

West Virginia

CD-02 (R+5)- (Shelley Moore Capito)- Anne Barth- COH: 327,000

Wisconsin

CD-01 (R+2)- (Paul Ryan)- Margeret Krupp- COH: 24,000
CD-06 (R+5)- (Tom Petri)- Roger Kittleson- COH: 3,000

Wyoming

CD-AL (R+19)- (Open Seat)- Gary Trauner- COH: 551,000

House Races Analysis | 6 comments (6 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: House Races Analysis (none / 0)

It looks as if BooTribber Barry Welsh IN-6 might have a good shot at finally unseating Pence this time.

From DownWithTyranny

The big shocker though was in the 6th District where Blue America-endorsed progressive Barry Welsh took 82,179 votes, as opposed to rubber stamp extremist Mike Pence who only had 38,031 votes.

It also looks like Barry could use a serious cash infusion.

"Only when we are no longer afraid do we begin to live." Dorothy Thompson, Journalist

by Indianadem on Wed May 14th, 2008 at 06:29:07 PM EST

Re: House Races Analysis (none / 0)

He needs a ton of cash. Like a quarter million.

by BooMan on Wed May 14th, 2008 at 06:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: House Races Analysis (none / 0)

I'm in NV-2 and I think Jill Derby has a good chance this time around. There are now more Democratic voters than Republican voters in Northern Nevada and they are excited to make some big changes this year. John McCain is not well liked here, so Republicans have little to get excited about.

by RandyH on Wed May 14th, 2008 at 07:45:27 PM EST

Re: House Races Analysis (none / 0)

Politico - GOP Scrambles:

Money quote:

Davis downplayed rumors of a coup Wednesday but distributed a "Where We Stand Today" memo in which he said the three special election losses were "canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the current climate."
"The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than the fall of 2006, when we lost 30 seats (and our majority) and came within a couple of percentage points of losing another 15 seats," Davis wrote. "Whether measured by polls, open seats, money, voter registration, generic ballot, presidential popularity or issues, our party faces a steep climb to maintain our current numbers."
Davis warned that the Republicans could lose 19 more seats in November if they don't find a way to reinvent their brand, which he said is now "an albatross to our members."
"We don't need to abandon long-held principles, but we do need to understand our shortcomings and make appropriate adjustments," Davis wrote. "It starts with the brand, and the brand is Bush. "
Davis said that Sen. John McCain, by contrast, won't "drag anyone down" but can't "carry anyone over the finish line," either.
(highlight added)

can we spell dire?

Yes. We. Can

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Wed May 14th, 2008 at 08:25:38 PM EST

Re: House Races Analysis (none / 0)

One of these days we need to take a swipe at my home district, NC-10.

Maybe 2010.

by Zandar1 on Wed May 14th, 2008 at 08:59:43 PM EST

Re: House Races Analysis (none / 0)

editgrid

Any chance you could post that info as a spreedsheat? A public post via Google Docs or my new favorite editgrid.com (just like Excel without the Microsoft!) would be helpful to sort the data.

Thanks!

Steve Harrison for Congress, NY-13, Staten Island and Brooklyn, NY

by lutton on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 10:14:28 AM EST

House Races Analysis | 6 comments (6 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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