Booman Tribune ~ Predictions Thread

Predictions Thread

by BooMan
Mon May 5th, 2008 at 03:06:27 PM EST

Do you have any predictions? Here are some for you to work with:

North Carolina

PsiFighter37 (Obama 58% Clinton 42%, Delegates: Obama 63, Clinton 52)
Poblano (Obama 59% Clinton 41%, Delegates: Obama 66, Clinton 49)
Elliot (Obama 59% Clinton 40%, Delegates: Obama 65, Clinton 50)

Indiana

PsiFighter37 (Clinton 53% Obama 47%, Delegates: Clinton 38, Obama 34)
Poblano (Clinton 51% Obama 49%, Delegates: Clinton 36, Obama 36)
Elliot (Clinton 51% Obama 49%, Delegates: Clinton 36, Obama 36)

Predictions Thread | 32 comments (32 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

after all is said and done?

I predict President McCain, quite possibly by a landslide.

That's what I think. It's a gut feeling, but I predict that: Clinton will not drop out; I think she's going to try to fight it out on the convention floor; and that when all is said and done, the Democratic candidate (and the Party) will look about as appealing as a Ford Pinto, exploding edition.

Sorry to be pessimistic, but that's where I am today.
And actually, I almost would prefer a president mccain. Not enough to vote for him of course.

For whatever reason, it has been determined that Bushes shall never be held accountable for anything. I don't know what powers-that-be came up with this concept, but since Bush Senior's administration, democrats and republicans have been happy to play along. Somalia got dumped on Clinton, all the Iran-Contr people were pardoned, Clinton cleaned up Bush's recession, and now Georgie wants to dump Iraq on whoever the next democrat is.

Maybe I'm cuckoo-bananas, but I get the distinct impression that an all-out effort to prop up what's left of the economy until GWB leaves is underway, so he won't have to assume full blame for the impending disaster: better to dump that one, like everything else, on the Dumbocrats.

McCain may have media friends, but from what I've seen no one in Congress likes the guy very much. If he wins the presidency, perhaps his nasty disposition will help derail SCOTUS appointments while the economy falls to complete and utter shit on the GOP's watch.

it's not like Obama or Clinton have especially unconventional ideas for dealing with the economy. Nothing new at all.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??

by brendan on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 03:43:50 PM EST

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

... perhaps his nasty disposition will help derail SCOTUS appointments

I'm latching on to your comment as an encouragement for everyone to head over to Firedoglake where Peter Edelman of Georgetown is guest posting today. He is blogging about the Supreme Court and he gives a decent summary of where "we are at" on the court and why the court should be a major concern to progressives.

For those who constantly say that the court is lost already - head over there and learn why it is not lost yet but is hanging by a thread. All of our happy thoughts about things that a progressive Congress (assuming we ever had one) could do are also hanging by that thread.

by maryb2004 on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:03:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 1)

I predict Obama will win the nomination. I predict Hillary's promised support will be tepid, at best.

I predict that when ANY media scrutiny is shown re McCain, he'll go down in a hurry.

Obama will be our next president. And this country will have finally turned a major corner, away from the warmongering of the Clintons and the Bushes alike, and into a more peaceful, cooperative future.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:06:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Empress Hillpatine will try to cut Obama (none / 0)

at the knees herself, a la Lieberman. If she can't win the nominatin, she'll continue to dog Obama's steps by feeding oppo to the Repubs.

I predict long memories for everyone if she tries to run again in 2012.

Man, even right-wing Dems gave grudging support to the party back in the day. This kind of thing she's doing is unprecedented.

An untypical Negro

http://thisblksistaspage.wordpress.com

by blksista (gab1954@gmail.com) on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 06:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Empress Hillpatine will try to cut Obama (4.00 / 2)

I predict that come 2012, if Hillary should choose to run for re-election to the Senate, that she will find herself facing a primary opponent with at least $20 million cash-on-hand - and that I'd be willing to fork out the first $2,300...

The Underground Railroad

by Oscar In Louisville on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 06:34:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Empress Hillpatine will try to cut Obama (4.00 / 2)

And I'll match that.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 06:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Empress Hillpatine will try to cut Obama (none / 1)

I will, too. Con gusto.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 10:46:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 1)

I think you are wrong about Obama having nothing different on the economy. And I don't have the specifics but others have done the work on it and I read up on it.

He has a circle of advisors that will handle things differently. And like McCain I am not a economist. So I can't word it for you. It is full of supply side shit I don't get.

But be assured, it will be different.

Franklin Roosevelt didn't campaign on what he ended up doing. He had to make the changes when he got in.

Things like putting people to work in public service, is one idea he has. And spending the money rebuilding here, instead of Iraq is definitly a difference.

Patriotism and religion, like whiskey, is best used in moderation. Mark Twain

by skeeters2525 on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:10:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

Zander1 did a diary a while back comparing economic stances on the whole financial sector mess. Far from being "nothing different", Obama's declared policies were orders of magnitude better than anything Clinton or McCain had to offer. Theirs were basically "keep doing what we've been doing, but do it better", his was "fix the fucking problem already, people!" Though I hate to say it, at this point anyone who believes that Obama isn't significantly to Clinton's left on every issue that matters is a "low-information voter".

Kill because somebody was killed. Get killed because he killed. Do you think peace will ever come like that?

by Egarwaen on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:59:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

I fear your prediction may well prove a damned good one.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:14:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

I predict Nuclear Winter come May 31. Hillary will use the nuclear option.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 06:40:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

Don't count out Indiana. Polls have been wrong. And the ones that have her way up are nuts. I have been on the ground the past week and my area, which should be Obama land, they were 100% Obama and if they didn't already vote, they sure were.

Of course she will win the Clinton hillbilles in the South. But the delegates are weighted in the North and the Indy areas.

So even a squeaker win for Clinton he will be ahead in the delegates.

Patriotism and religion, like whiskey, is best used in moderation. Mark Twain

by skeeters2525 on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:06:17 PM EST

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 1)

However, voter rolls have been scrubbed in the areas where Obama is supposed to do well. I'm concerned that the Voter ID bill will prevent some of his supporters from voting.

I think it will be a split decision. But she's still not going to catch him in delegates or the popular vote.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:07:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

Also of note, the consensus of these predictions is roughly that Obama will emerge with a 99-88 pledged delegate advantage and an additional 130,000 popular vote margin.

by BooMan on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:13:21 PM EST

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

Good point on the voters rolls. However, we went through the same thing in the Congressional races and it worked out ok.

But yes, you are certainly right, and it will hurt in Gary. But the Obamanites did a good job of being sure everyone is aware.

This is one issue Obama has been in the lead on in the Senate. Of course as far as I know it is not completed. But he will have more sway when elected.

Patriotism and religion, like whiskey, is best used in moderation. Mark Twain

by skeeters2525 on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:13:30 PM EST

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

I'm not too worried about the voter rolls . . . yet. A diary up on Big Orange is pointing out that before the purge there were more voters registered than there could possibly be registered voters in Indiana.

Still, I think it will come down to Obama will win NC, Clinton will win IN, and even when he erases the gains she made in PA she'll keep dragging this out . . . as . . . long . . . as . . . possible.

Somebody please just shoot me. Don't put me in suspended animation or I might wind up like this guy:

A guy went into a coma in 1983 and didn't come out until 20 years later. As soon as he could talk the first thing he said was, "How's Reagan doing?"
"Reagan?" asked the doctor. "You mean Ronald Reagan?"
"Yeah, how's he doing?"
"Um, I hate to tell you this, but he's dead."
The guy just leaned back and moaned. "Oh God, that means that idiot Bush is president."

I for one welcome our new Twitter overlords. @Omir55

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:55:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

I think that whatever the most annoying result could be is what we'll get. And this will drag on and on and on and on and on and on.....

by CabinGirl on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:26:59 PM EST

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

mark your calendar. May 31, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to address the Michigan - Florida "seat the delegates" fight.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 06:42:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 1)

l predict a long, hot summer, with major disturbances in colorado during the period surrounding august 25-28.

and does the poster in this photo creep anybody else out?

brings to my mind russian propaganda posters from the lenin era...

click images to enlarge

gaaaaaaaaaaaa

the revolution will not be televised...

by dada on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:49:15 PM EST

Re: Predictions Thread (4.00 / 2)

I think the artist's work is far more Eastern than that!!

Check out this Mao poster, almost worth an intellectual property fight, eh?

And yes, ew.

by Lyrebird on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 05:19:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

bingo! you nailed it. nt (none / 0)

the revolution will not be televised...

by dada on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 05:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

Ewwwww. Just . . . just ewwwww.

I for one welcome our new Twitter overlords. @Omir55

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 04:57:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 1)

I think you're actually looking for a Mao poster for the comparison. More apt simile, too, in my opinion.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 05:28:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, like everything else... (none / 0)

They are scrambling behind Sen. Obama, in a pathetic and desperate display of me too-ism.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 10:57:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, like everything else... (none / 0)

they've been playing "catch up" since the campaign started. running a late 20th century rovian/reichwing program, while obama put together a group of people who had, as it turns out, a pretty damned good idea of how to run a 21st century, 50 state one.

other than the occasional gaffe...wright comes to mind...it's been brilliant, imo.

the revolution will not be televised...

by dada on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 11:26:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, like everything else... (none / 0)

Oh, it's been rich:

Obama has tons of college kids in his shots from Iowa. OK, we can get college kids, too!

Yes we can. Yes we will!

At one time, both she and Teflon John were saying that they were "fired up and ready to go."

Of course, it's getting harder and harder to see the difference between the two. One has more hair?

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 11:50:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

I predict I will get up Wednesday morning and avoid the cable talking heads for fear of ruining my day with reports of Hillary's continued "comeback" or her "resiliency," no matter what the numbers actually are.

by RollaMO on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 05:15:05 PM EST

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

Winner!

Seriously, when will this thing die? It's like Iraq, if Hillary wins it means she must stay, if Hillary loses she must stay, but leaving is not an option because otherwise Reverend Wright will win, or something.

More at Zandar vs. The Stupid.

by Zandar1 on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 05:27:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

Well, lemme be the first commenter on this thread to make an actual numeric prediction, FWIW...

North Carolina

Obama 54.5% Clinton 45.5%, Delegates: Obama 61, Clinton 54

Indiana

Clinton 53.8% Obama 46.2%, Delegates: Clinton 38, Obama 34

by bcamarda on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 06:01:58 PM EST

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 0)

I'll write it up later, put I ran the numbers, adjusted for varying education levels, and traditional black turnout of 29%. It should be much higher. And here what I got.

Obama 54% Clinton 46%

CD-1- Obama 71-29, 4-2
CD-2- Obama 55-45, 3-3
CD-3- Clinton 52-48, 2-2
CD-4- Obama 60-40, 5-4
CD-5- Clinton 58-42, 3-2
CD-6- Clinton 57-43, 3-2
CD-7- Obama 51-49, 3-3
CD-8- Obama 56-44, 3-2
CD-9- Obama 52-48, 3-3
CD-10- Clinton 60-40, 3-2
CD-11- Clinton 59-41, 4-2
CD-12- Obama 67-33, 5-2
CD-13- Obama 57-43, 4-3

Totals: Obama 40, Clinton 37

The rest split 21-17.

Overall: Obama 61, Clinton 54

by BooMan on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 06:05:10 PM EST

Re: Predictions Thread (none / 1)

Not bad considering the very generous assumptions.

My picks:

NC
Obama 56%
Clinton 44%

IN
Clinton 54%
Obama 46%

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 06:26:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Shooting Fish In A Barrel (none / 0)

I predict that PsiFighter's prediction will be spot-on, once again. Consider:

PA Prediction vs. PA Results

I'm willing to bank on that level of precision.

The Underground Railroad

by Oscar In Louisville on Mon May 5th, 2008 at 06:43:56 PM EST

Predictions Thread | 32 comments (32 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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