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by BooMan
I used the following methodology to estimate the outcome of the Indiana primary. I looked at the estimated vote by district, racial demographics by district, and education levels by district provided by Poblano. I used a baseline measure for the black vote of 89%-11% for Obama, and for the white vote of 58%-42% for Clinton (as suggested by SurveyUSA). I then adjusted the white vote for level of education. I could have used income, but with the heavy influence of universities in Indiana, I thought education the better variable. I did not take into account Obama's potential strength among whites in the northwest region, or his possible weakness in other areas of the state. I also stole PsiFighter37's code to make it easier for myself.
Indiana (May 6th primary, 72 pledged delegates)
IN CD-01: 6 delegates I estimate that blacks will makeup 25% of all voters in the First District (the second highest percentage in that state). Nevertheless, the district has a slighter lower than average level of education, and I anticipate the white vote will break 60-40 for Clinton. Obama should pull out a narrow popular vote victory here, but not the big margin that he needs to win that state.
IN CD-02: 6 delegates Despite the presence of Notre Dame University, the Second District has an even lower level of education than the First District. I also anticipate that blacks will make up only 11% of the electorate here. I anticipate a solid victory for Clinton, but not enough to pick up any delegates.
IN CD-03: 4 delegates The Third District is located in the Northeast and is considered solid Clinton country. Only about 8% of the electorate should be black, and the district has an average level of education. Obama should do well enough in Ft. Wayne to keep it somewhat close, and I don't anticipate Clinton gaining any delegates out of the Third.
IN CD-04: 4 delegates The Fourth District is one of the most conservative districts in the state, but it includes Purdue University. As a result it is the second most educated district in the state. In spite of blacks making up less than 5% of the anticipated electorate, I project that Clinton will only narrowly win the Fourth and get no delegates out of it.
IN CD-05: 4 delegates Many people think the Fifth District, which is represented by Dan Burton and only gave John Kerry 28% of the vote, is going to break heavily for Clinton. I disagree. The Fifth District is, by far, the most educated in the state. I actually predict that Obama will win the white vote in this district and carry it easily. He won't, however, get any delegates for his efforts.
IN CD-06: 5 delegates The Sixth District is the only district in Indiana with an odd number of delegates. It only takes 50+1% of the vote to earn a delegate. The district houses Ball State University. Nevertheless, it has lower than average income and only about 6% of the vote is likely to be black. Clinton should cruise to a large victory here, but not a large enough one to earn more than one delegate.
IN CD-07: 6 delegates The Seventh District is Indianapolis, and this is Obama's stronghold. With about 43% of electorate expected to be black, I predict Obama will win by about a 63-37 margin and net about 33,000 votes out of the capital. But it won't be enough to offset his deficits elsewhere in the state.
IN CD-08: 6 delegates The Eighth District is the most fascinating in the state. Terre Haute is Evan Bayh's homebase. But the district also hugs the Illinois border. And Obama should do very well in Evansville, the district's largest city, where the mayor has endorsed him. The Eighth has the second lowest level of education in the state and only about 5% of the electorate is expected to be black. Overall, this is strong Clinton country. She needs 58.5% of the vote to get a delegate split. I have her getting fifty-nine. That's as close as you can get.
IN CD-09: 6 delegates The Ninth District hugs the Kentucky border. It also includes some exurbs of Cincinnati. And it is the home of the University of Indiana in Bloomington. Despite the University, the overall level of education in the district is slightly below average for the state. It's also the whitest district in the state. I'm hopeful that the numbers will be better than what my model projects, but I have Clinton pulling in 59% and just barely getting a 4-2 split.
At-Large Delegates (16 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (9 delegates) Overall, I project that Clinton will narrowly win the state by a 51-49 margin. That's what my model gave me. That means we'll have the following splits among the at-large and PLEO delegates.
That comes out to a 38-34 delegate split in favor of Clinton and an estimated popular vote victory of a mere 25,000 votes.
Indiana Primary Predictions | 3 comments (3 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Indiana Primary Predictions | 3 comments (3 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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