Booman Tribune

Election Thread

by BooMan
Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:42:57 PM EST

Here are my final projections based on exit polls showing Obama getting 92% of the black vote in Indiana and 91% of the black vote in North Carolina.

Indiana
CD-1 0.53 0.48 Obama 3-3
CD-2 0.45 0.55 Clinton 3-3
CD-3 0.46 0.54 Clinton 2-2
CD-4 0.48 0.52 Clinton 2-2
CD-5 0.57 0.43 Obama 3-3
CD-6 0.41 0.59 Clinton 3-2
CD-7 0.64 0.37 Obama 4-2
CD-8 0.41 0.59 Clinton 4-2
CD-9 0.41 0.59 Clinton 4-2

Total 0.49 0.51 Clinton 25-22

At-Large: Tie 8-8
PLEO Delegates: Clinton 5-4
Total: Clinton 38-34

North Carolina
CD-01 0.72 0.26 Obama 4-2
CD-02 0.58 0.41 Obama 3-3
CD-03 0.50 0.50 Tie 2-2
CD-04 0.61 0.38 Obama 5-4
CD-05 0.43 0.57 Clinton 3-2
CD-06 0.45 0.55 Clinton 3-2
CD-07 0.52 0.47 Obama 3-3
CD-08 0.58 0.41 Obama 3-2
CD-09 0.54 0.46 Obama 3-3
CD-10 0.41 0.58 Clinton 3-2
CD-11 0.42 0.58 Clinton 3-3
CD-12 0.70 0.28 Obama 5-2
CD-13 0.59 0.40 Obama 4-3

Total 0.56 0.43 Obama 42-35

At-Large: Obama 15-11
PLEO Delegates: Obama 7-5
Total: Obama 64-51

Indiana and North Carolina

Total Delegates: Obama 98, Clinton 89, Obama +9
Estimated Popular Vote: Obama: Net +155,000



Display:
Hmm, I have a bad feeling.  Hope it's nothing.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:53:02 PM EST
things look pretty good in Indiana so far.  Obama is picking up some counties to the northwest of Indianapolis and he isn't getting totally slaughtered in his weakest areas.  Definitely too close to call at this time.  
by BooMan on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:09:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Erm, too early to call per MSNBC.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:10:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ohmigosh. I just saw SusanHu at NoQuarter urging people to watch Fox News instead of MSNBC. She was a Republican in her youth. I guess she feels more at home there. It's really sad to see how far off the deep end she's gone in this election!!

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:15:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
you mean SusanUnPC (or should I say UppityWoman) [Check uppity woman's email address: one and the same)

She has also praised Frank Luntz, Joe Scarborough, and our favorite, Pat Buchanan.

 

If you want me to go back to the place that I was born, tell your corporations to leave my country (Leon Gieco)

by cruz del sur (nicodk@sbcglobal.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:50:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
CNN already called IN for Clinton.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have they?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:15:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On their Web site she's listed as the "projected winner."

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:25:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wait! It's missing!!! I could have sworn I saw a red checkmark by her name. Maybe I didn't??? Cool!

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:25:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, they don't call until AP calls, at the earliest.  (They actually held out longer in New Hampshire than AP.)  AP has the exit polls, I believe, and they do they number crunching.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:28:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fox reported, based on Indiana exit polling  gives Clinton a 52-48% win.

Obama called for NC.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:33:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How special.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh
by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:16:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Booman-

If you're right about that popular vote total, then HRC is toast, by her own metric.

by eagleye on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:56:57 PM EST
The metric like the goal post changes:

WSJ

May 6, 2008, 1:40 pm

Clinton Counts Florida, Michigan in Delegate Math

In a Primary Day photo-op at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Sen. Hillary Clinton offered more campaign-as-racing metaphors and indicated she has her own ideas about where, exactly, the Democrats' primary finish line will be.Life is unpredictable. Racing is unpredictable. Politics is unpredictable," the candidate told reporters standing in the garage of racer and Clinton supporter Sarah Fisher. To reporters' dismay, she didn't predict the outcome of the primaries.

Clinton was also asked about the delegate count: Would the race against Sen. Barack Obama end when she or he gets 2,025 delegates - generally accepted as the total needed to secure the nomination -- or 2,209 delegates, a number that includes delegates from Florida and Michigan?

The Democratic National Committee has said it would not seat Florida and Michigan delegates since their states held early primaries in violation of party rules.

Clinton said she thought 2,209 was number needed to win.

On Monday, Geoff Garin, her chief strategist had said on a conference call that 2,209 is "what we believe is the standard for deciding this is that who has a majority of the total number of delegates, including Michigan and Florida, that -- to decide the nomination," according to a transcript of the call.

May 31, 2008.

!!!!!

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:08:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This has been another episode of Great Moments In Magical Thinking. Howard Dean said the delegates would be seated. He didn't say they were going to get to vote.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh
by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:15:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton said she'd abide by the rule set for FL and MI.
Clinton said she'd close the deal by Feb. 5th.
Clinton said she had no idea about Texas' primary/caucus.

This is a person prepared to be POTUS?  Who's cheat sheet will she use?

Blogging While Brown Convention Atlanta, GA July 25-27, 2008

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:30:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 

via TPM

INDIANA (3%)

Clinton  61%      Obama  39%

Turnout heavy in Monroe County

Overheard Indiana voter was for Obama before learning Obama is a muslim, and ...when corrected said could not take that chance that he was not.

email smear..smears do impact.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:01:03 PM EST
I don't get this. How can he be a Muslim and still have a problem with an obviously Christian pastor? I swear, sometimes I think Clinton has the Dumb As A Bag Of Rocks constituency sewn up. Then I look around at supporters of the other two candidates and come to the conclusion that we are surrounded by Dumb. (Some campaigns more than others, of course, and no campaign can claim a 100% Lackwit constituency, but there sure seems to be a lot of it out there.)

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh
by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:11:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rovian playbook works. Very depressing.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:19:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the best things about Obama being elected is going to be the virtual shredding of that Rove playbook. It isn't working on him, and hopefully it'll rub off on the Democrats that come in his wake and won't work on them either.

Well, I can dream I guess.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:22:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Simply having him as president will make the country smarter. I PROMISE.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:31:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh please oh please oh please, from your fingertips to the FSM's . . . noodly whatever.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh
by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:45:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't get this. How can he be a Muslim and still have a problem with an obviously Christian pastor?

How does a draft-dodger turn a war hero into a wimp and make himself a great leader?

Smears work.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:21:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just wait til they all get the email smear saying Hillary Clinton is a Lesbian who participated in three-ways with her husband and interns...! (On second thought, that might RAISE her popularity, haha!)

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:33:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh thanks a lot, now that image is going to be in my head all the way home on the bus. Bleah.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh
by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:47:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I believe it was P.T. Barnum who said that nobody ever went broke by underestimating the intelligence of the American public. What percentage of America still believes that Saddam Hussein planned 9/11?

The Underground Railroad
by Oscar In Louisville on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:25:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Enough. One of the Clinton supporters I reached in Indiana was defending Clinton because we needed to be at war in Iraq because of 9/11. Talked to her very patiently and slowly, and said, you do understand that Iraq never attacked us, right? It was Afghanistan. It was a horrible conversation.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:32:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, that was H. L. Mencken, but they were on the same page. Barnum (allegedly) said you could fool some of the people some of the time.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh
by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:40:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
P.T. Barnum said there was a sucker born a minute.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:50:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any guesses who they're voting for?

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh
by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:56:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't recall Hillary complaining about this SS decision. Did I miss it?

#$@!&%@!!!

These people weren't able to vote.

Indiana nuns lacking ID denied at poll by fellow sister
By DEBORAH HASTINGS - 3 hours ago

About 12 Indiana nuns were turned away Tuesday from a polling place by a fellow bride of Christ because they didn't have state or federal identification bearing a photograph.

Sister Julie McGuire said she was forced to turn away her fellow sisters at Saint Mary's Convent in South Bend, across the street from the University of Notre Dame, because they had been told earlier that they would need such an ID to vote.

The nuns, all in their 80s or 90s, didn't get one but came to the precinct anyway.

by Cee on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:11:18 PM EST
The Supreme Court's gonna roast for that. Any sixth grader at Our Lady of Perpetual Motion* can tell you, you don't mess with the sisters.

* Or any Blues Brother, but that's a different story.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:13:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Scalia cringing while cornered by 12 nuns with rulers beating against the palms of their hands.  

The election judge carrying a picture of the sacred heart saying why Antonin, why?  You were such a good boy.  Now take these rosaries...

by northcountry on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:44:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The asshat on the SS needed proof.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:20:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So after all the Sturm und Drang, all of the hoo-hah and Reverend Wright and Tuzla and Ayers and Bill, we're right back where we started eight weeks ago after Texas and Ohio? She gains nine in Pennsylvania, loses nine today?

I think I'll go find a brick wall to beat my head against. It'll feel sooooo good when I stop.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:21:06 PM EST
Hush! The primary is the only pillar holding up the economy at this point.
by Joyful Alternative on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:01:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He just mentioned that since Obama was up 20pts. two weeks ago in NC, he has to win by that much or something's wrong.  I don't recall him mentioning that same thing in OH, TX and PA when Clinton led by up to 25pts. in OH and only won by 11, or her 20pts lead in TX and only won the primary part by what 3 or 5 pts.  Or how she has a 24pt lead in PA and only won by 9 pts.

Blogging While Brown Convention Atlanta, GA July 25-27, 2008
by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:27:54 PM EST
he hearts Hillary

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:34:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
. <- This is Dot #1. It represents Pat Buchanan.

. <- This is Dot #2. It represents a bag of rocks.

I'm sure you can take it from here.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:43:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rude One no likey Indiana...

The Underground Railroad
by Oscar In Louisville on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:31:42 PM EST
Hillary is projected to win 6-8% of the Black vote in NC. What Democrat since the Great Depression has won a general election with single-digit Black support?

The Underground Railroad
by Oscar In Louisville on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:40:50 PM EST
She thinks they'll all come home to mama in the general. Baloney.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:51:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
they'll be staying home.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:52:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We'll be giving Hillary the single-digit salute...

The Underground Railroad
by Oscar In Louisville on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:57:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And as for Clinton supporters saying they wouldn't vote for Obama in the fall? Doh, it's because they're REPUBLICANS voting for Hillary and wouldn't vote for him in any case!

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:51:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, there's a diary up on Big Orange that suggests that as many as 15% of the voters for Clinton in Indiana have no intention of voting for a Democrat in the fall.

I'd have to go play with the numbers because I think they're off (and the diarist admits as much), but it's an interesting thought.

And as Kos himself points out, self-declared independents are still voting for Obama over Clinton. Berry berry important.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:55:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton does another self loan?

had to.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:48:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow - this is kind of scary:

From Google Trends - http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama&hl=en

These are the top cities where people are searching "Obama." Reston VA is the HQ of the CIA.

Kind of shows you were the power sits, doesn't it?

Cities  

  1. Reston, VA, USA  

  2. Washington, DC, USA  

  3. Richardson, TX, USA  

  4. Chicago, IL, USA  

  5. Austin, TX, USA  

  6. New York, NY, USA  

  7. Philadelphia, PA, USA  

  8. St Louis, MO, USA  

  9. Seattle, WA, USA  

  10. Boston, MA, USA  


"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:54:30 PM EST
But what's Richardson, Texas? I've never even heard of it.
by Joyful Alternative on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:08:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Home of lots of teleco related companies just outside Dallas.
by northcountry on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:26:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Harold Ickes warns of an October surprise with Obama?

WTF?
via Will Bunch

This is what Harold Ickes, a longtime advisory to both Bill and Hillary Clinton, told Mark Halperin of Time's The Page tonight:

   "We don't know enough about Senator Obama yet. We don't need an October Surprise. And (the chance of) an October Surprise with Hillary is remote."

Will Bunch:

This remark is dismaying on several levels, partly because Ickes is virtually channeling Karl Rove, who implied something similar in a recent interview with GQ -- not backed up by any information of course. Just planting this vague idea in Joe Average Voter's head that there's something about Barry -- pick your vice, political or personal -- that all the kool kidz inside the Beltway know about, and it's going to pop one week before the election, is the only strategy here. As if the Clinton camp wouldn't use that information now, when they are still so eager to win but probably can't do so without a "game changer."

(emphasis added)

Harold Ickes needs immodium for the mouth.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:08:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am from Reston, havnt lived there in about a decade, but it was a pretty left leaning place back in the day. Good NOVA town.
by benjamink on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:09:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
CIA is actually in McLean VA.
by northcountry on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:26:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jeffrey Toobin on CNN actually was able to shut demigod Lou Dobbs up by telling him that Obama already won states with white voters.

Pat Buchanan is stuck in the past and he is not even making sense with his "analysis."

The worst part about all of this is the demographics always stay the same in these contests depending on geography and the media focuses on what voters they can not get.

Plus, why do these cable networks think we need to hear Republican political hacks talk to the public about the democratic primary?

"The heart of darkness is the president. Nobody knows what he thinks, even the people who work for him."

by Mac G on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:05:38 PM EST
Paul Begala is a fucking idiot. His dumb ass should know better when it comes to the history of African-American support for Democrats. Blacks didn't begin switching from the GOP to the Democrats with JFK, it began in earnest with FDR and the New Deal. It was accelerated by Truman issuing an executive order integrating the army and by Truman's insertion of an integration plank into the '48 Democratic platform (back when platforms had some correlation to the policies that the party actually intended to pursue). JFK's Camelot helped and LBJ solidified it with the Voting Rights Act, but it was Richard Nixon's Southern Strategy that made our support of the Democratic Party nearly ubiquitous.

Hillary has the opportunity to undo all of that in the next few months by continuing in her campaign to destroy Barack Obama. I've never voted for a Republican for any elective office, but if Hillary manages to become the nominee then that will change...

The Underground Railroad

by Oscar In Louisville on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:10:09 PM EST
a hearty AMEN

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
what happened?

CNN called Indiana for Clinton. I left to do some chores and at 8.36 P.M. with 52% of the percints in, at MSNBC - it's too close to call: Clinton 56% - Obama 46%???

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:41:11 PM EST


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