Booman Tribune

Obama's poll numbers problem

by eastcoastmoderate
Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 12:14:23 PM EST

For the past year, I have heard the stories coming out of the press, and liberal bloggers all over the internet that this is the Democrats year. All they have to do is trot out John Mc.Cain, and morph him into George Bush, and the Democrats will take control of the White House back after Bush has soiled it for the past eight years. But the latest Gallup poll may give some Democrats an uneasy feeling.

In the poll, it shows that Barack Obama has only a 3% lead over Mc.Cain, 45-42% That is statistically a dead heat, and what's worse, Obama's lead is down after Hillary Clinton got out of the race and endorsed Obama.

Now I know this is only one poll, and it's only a snapshot in time, but with the way things are running in this country right now, Obama should have a 12-15% lead.

Think about it. The economy is bad, we are in an endless Iraqi war, gas prices are through the roof, homes are foreclosing in record rates, Bush's approval rating is at an all time low of 25%, most of the world hates us because of Bush's cowboy diplomacy, the middle class is worse off than eight years ago, the poor are getting poorer, while the rich just get richer. All this bad news comes in a time where we have a Republican in the White House. Obama has said over and over again that he is the change candidate, and this is a change election, but we have yet to see the supposed change candidate manifest itself in an environment that certainly favors Democrats.

So what is Obama's problem? Could the people who voted for Hillary be holding out on Obama? Could it be that Obama is a classic liberal, and in some parts of this country, the word liberal is a dirty word? John Mc.Cain is one of the worst candidates the Republicans could ever throw at the Democrats. The guy makes paint drying an exciting thing to watch, he is prone to making gaffes in his supposed strength in foreign policy, a solid minority in his own party hate the guy because he isn't conservative enough, and to top that off, he represents a party who can't get out of its own way.

If I were a Democrat, I would be worried. Here we have a fresh, young face in Barack Obama, who has dethroned the Clinton machine, on a message of change in this country, who is suffering with all kinds of problems, running against a man, a party, and a sitting worthless president, and he is only up by 3%!!!

Something ain't right here.



Display:
meh...keep stirring ecm, maybe you'll get to see a repeat of this historic moment:

fun with photoshop, and a very big tip-o-the hat to white knuckles aka: knucklehead.

lTMF'sA...the revolution will not be televised...Peace

by dada on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 03:51:52 PM EST
If I were a Democrat, I would be worried

But you are not, so why don't you leave the "worrying" to us?

If you want me to go back to the place that I was born, tell your corporations to leave my country (Leon Gieco)

by cruz del sur (nicodk@sbcglobal.net) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 01:03:40 PM EST
ECM must be one of those compassionate conservatives, that's why he cares so much.  < cough, cough >  

Fear will keep the local systems in line. -Grand Moff Tarkin -SLB-
by boran2 (blogistan@yahoo.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 08:54:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
heh.
by BooMan on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 01:25:56 PM EST
I'll send you to this analysis at 538 Electoral projections and we have  over four months before voting day.

It's the electoral Votes that matters:

It's a landslide    Obama 308.5       McCain 229.5

Percentage Win: Obama 64.7%     McCain 35.3%

Popular Vote:     Obama 51.4%     McCain 48.6%

Gore will tell ya, "You can win the popular vote and lose the prize that counts."

McCain may have been around for over twenty years, yet his policy positions (depending on time of day) are not well known across the country.

Just wait. McSame as Bush.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 01:31:27 PM EST
I think we are getting a bit overconfident. His poll numbers are not bad but they could be better. I am bit concerned about Wright returning to the spotlight.  God I hate that man.
by Micheline on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 06:00:22 PM EST
ya think?...l'll grant, as yogi said: " it ain't over till it's over" but confidence is a big part of getting there.

take a look at these numbers instead, l think you'll find them enlightening as well as encouraging...assuming you don't share ecm's pov:

Obama leads among women 52%-33%, with Catholics 47%-40%, among independents 41%-36%, and even 47%-42% with blue-collar workers.

And contrary to the idea that his poor primary performances among Hispanics reflected an electability problem, he now leads 62%-28% with that group -- well ahead of John Kerry's 53%-44% advantage in 2004.

via tpm election central

the GE run-up has just started, expect these numbers to rise.

lTMF'sA...the revolution will not be televised...Peace

by dada on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 06:27:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's Jonathan Chait,TNR pondering The State of the Race that McCain finds himself faced with the possibility of having peaked in the polls:

The State of the Race

There's a remarkable unanimity among the polls right now that Barack Obama leads John McCain by about six points. Is this just a nomination bounce? Maybe. But maybe it's a lead that Obama isn't likely to relinquish.

Everybody has said for a while that the fundamentals of the race are very strong for Obama. This is reflected in the latest poll, from NBC/Wall Street Journal. By a margin of 51%-35%, voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican as the next president. Yes, Obama is running far behind that generic preference, beating McCain by just 6. But you wonder how much better McCain can do. He's already 10 points ahead of the generic showing. How much room for growth can there be?

The same poll shows white suburban women would prefer a Democratic president by an 11 point margin, and would vote for Hillary Clinton over McCain by 14 points, but McCain wins them right now by 6. It seems to me that Obama is more likely than McCain  to make up ground with this group. McCain's general appeal is considerable, but it's a distinctly male appeal. He's all about war and heroism and manliness. He's not a kitchen table issue guy. And on social issues, his stated positions -- granted, he doesn't care about them very much -- are extremely conservative. More campaigning and more information probably won't be McCain's friend here.

[.]

Moreover, when you look at the big events to come, they seem to favor Obama more than McCain:

1. The Republican Convention may be a mixed bag for McCain -- President Bush is going to have to make a major speech, and that can't help McCain.

go read the whole thing



Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:34:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good point Micheline. And just think, the Republican slime machine hasn't even gotten a hold of him yet. If and when the Repubs start getting desperate, Obama is going to start facing a whole lot more negativity. John Kerry got swift-boated to death, and it stuck. The Democrats have to have a plan to deal with it, ot they'll get the same treatment both Kerry and Al Gore got.

Why is it that both parties are so intent on screaming at each other, rather than trying to find solutions to this country's massive problems??
by eastcoastmoderate on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 10:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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