Booman Tribune

Obama and Iraq

by Steven D
Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 10:27:15 AM EST

First a little context:

In Iraq, the current government led by Prime Minister Maliki is arresting government officials who are members of Muqtada al-Sadr's movement. Maliki's cabinet has banned the use of pictures of non-candidates at political rallies, a move thought to be aimed at the Muqtada al-Sadr's political party which frequently uses his picture at rallies of his supporters. Progress has also reportedly been made between the Maliki government and the Bush administration regarding the status of forces agreement which will formally permit US troops (and their bases) to remain in Iraq after 2008. All this comes after news that the US military has been spying on the Iraqi military because they don't trust their putative allies.

And now word comes that Obama is walking back on his pledge to withdraw troops from Iraq, or as the headline from Reuters so delicately puts it "Obama signals flexibility on Iraq."

The Illinois senator has repeatedly pledged to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq, one brigade every month until all are out in 16 months. Last September he argued, "the best way to protect our security and to pressure Iraq's leaders to resolve their civil war is to immediately begin to remove our combat troops." [...]

Susan Rice, a top Obama foreign policy adviser, told MSNBC on Tuesday that "we absolutely have to draw down and redeploy our forces from Iraq."

"But he has said over and over again we have to be as careful getting out as George Bush was careless getting in. So he will redeploy our forces responsibly, at a rate that our commanders say is safe and sustainable."

Letting commanders have a say in the pace of withdrawal is new language from the Obama campaign.

Anthony Lake, who was Democratic President Bill Clinton's national security adviser and now a senior Obama foreign policy adviser, told the Financial Times Obama would maintain a "residual force for clearly defined missions" in Iraq.

The borrow a phrase from Seymour Hersh, "the battlefield is being prepared" for Obama to adopt a policy which accepts a long term commitment of an unspecified number of US forces to remain in Iraq. In essence, this is the same policy that Senator Clinton promoted in her campaign. It's difference from Senator McCain's position (Bush redux, otherwise known as "stay the course") is arguably lessening each day. In effect, this is a not so nuanced retreat from his earlier pledge to be out of Iraq within 16 months. Some might call this typical behavior by a Democrat, i.e., caving in to the fear of appearing weak on issues of national security and war by moving closer to the Republican position, rather than forthrightly promoting a policy that the majority of Americans favor.

Some might say that, and, frankly, it would be hard to argue with them. Indeed, some are saying this, quite openly and avidly:

(cont.)

"I can unequivocally say: the Obama campaign is making a very serious mistake," said Ariana Huffington, writing on the liberal Huffington Post blog. "Tacking to the centre is a losing strategy." [...]

Democratic strategist Liz Chadderdon predicted Obama would talk less and less about a timeline for withdrawal but would not change his core position that U.S. troops must leave Iraq.

"If Obama completely reversed on getting out of Iraq, I do think the base would walk away," she said. "I think he knows that and I think you'll never hear him say that."

The question for me is not what Obama's campaign strategy is with respect to how he "talks" about Iraq, the question for me is what he will do once he gets in office regarding Iraq. And statements by his current advisers do not give me much comfort on that point:

[Anthony] Lake compared the Iraq war to the conflict in Vietnam in citing the need to leave behind a functioning Iraqi government.

"It is common sense that we could not leave Vietnam successfully unless we left behind a government in Saigon that could govern successfully," he told the newspaper, lamenting that this view was not obvious enough to many U.S. politicians at the time.

This is the same Anthony Lake who was Bill Clinton's National Security Adviser, by the way. And he is spouting the insane belief that if only we had left a " government in Saigon that could govern successfully" we would have succeeded in Vietnam? What madness is this? What Vietnam is he imagining? Certainly not the one which exists in any reality I know of.

We will never have a functioning government in Iraq so long as our troops retain a presence there to prop up the most pro-American faction. At present US forces are backing al-Maliki and his allies, the group, ironically enough with the closest ties to Iran. It well established that this is one of the most corrupt governments in the region, and the fact that our military feels the need to spy on the Iraqi Army should tell you everything you need to know about the reliability of Prime Minister Maliki's government as our "partner" in the region. It is a fool's errand to attempt to establish a "stable" government in Iraq before leaving. You would have thought Vietnam and the lessons of Britain's prior occupation of Iraq would have taught our political elites this fact.

Sadly, no. Apparently they have learned nothing from history. And even worse, these are the people that Obama has advising him and speaking on his behalf regarding Iraq. That speaks volumes by itself, does it not?



Display:
This is really the nightmare behind the FISA argument. It's not that he changed his mind, its that it shows that we can't trust him on really important issues.

We can't trust him on the war now. Not only wouldn't he leave Iraq he probably would continue a war in Iran. I guess I should start getting ready for a republican VP with confederate ties or something...And, of course, if I can't end this evil horrible war with dnc majorities in both houses, possibly a super majority in the senate, what the frack am I voting for? What's the purpose?

Philip Shropshire http://www.threeriversonline.com

by pshropshire on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 10:36:14 AM EST
On the FISA argument a federal judge just ruled rejecting Bush's Views on Wiretaps

FISA revolt the biggest group on Obama's website

Watch the Video:  On the Irag Policy here's Axelrod with John Roberts on the issue* via TPM

pushing the candidate to walk back is afoot. Don't fall for it.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 11:05:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama made his plan for Iraq clear a long time ago. He SAID he would leave forces in Iraq, and he defined what some of their missions would be, and - surprise, surprise! those missions clearly included combat. That is why people have to stop just listening to the sound bytes and the campaign speeches and read something other than the candidates' campaign PR.

I have known since at least last year about his non-withdrawal "withdrawal" plan, and I have been telling people at every opportunity. Heaven knows I have brought it up enough times here. Do you believe me now, people?

by Hurria (Muslawia@gmail.com) on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 05:20:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have said to myself that I will wait until the FISA vote, just in case he comes to his senses, although I already know it is a lost cause. What a shame!!!
by cruz del sur (nicodekoenigsberg@yahoo.com) on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 10:50:24 AM EST
I feel sickened today, and my glasses are darkening by the moment.

"We are all atheists about most of the gods that humanity has ever believed in. Some of us just go one god further." - Richard Dawkins
by halo0 (philiott at gmail dotcom) on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 11:18:02 AM EST
still 4 months til the election...
at this rate Obama will be right of McCain by then.

The Four Horsemen of Bushism: War, Corruption, Hypocrisy and Greed
by esquimaux (esquimaux1 at gmail dot com) on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 11:26:46 AM EST
"Obama would maintain a "residual force for clearly defined missions" in Iraq."

This is nothing new. I have been repeating and repeating and repeating for months that this was Obama's stated plan from the beginning. He never intended to withdraw from Iraq, his plan is and always has been to continue the occupation but to reconfigure it to have a lower profile.

How is it that so many people have missed that until now, and now, suddenly are shocked - SHOCKED! - that Obama has come up with a "new" plan?

by Hurria (Muslawia@gmail.com) on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 05:15:00 PM EST
Wasn't this always his position, even back during the primaries? I remember a lot of wailing from certain corners because he wanted to remove American forces from Iraq quickly, but wouldn't rule out leaving behind a small residual force for longer-duration operations. I'm all for smacking Obama in the face and going "What the hell, man?" when he tacks to Clinton. But is that actually what he's doing here?

Kill because somebody was killed. Get killed because he killed. Do you think peace will ever come like that?
by Egarwaen on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 11:00:37 AM EST
When your advisers are saying we won't leave unless there is a "stable government" left behind, what does that tell you about an Obama adminsitration's actual long range plans for Iraq?

That and the fact that he will "listen to the generals" before making decisions on withdrawals.  What generals?  And why do generals get to make the critical political/strategic decisions regarding Iraq?  Their job should be to implement policy decided by the political leaders.

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

by Steven D on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 11:08:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, that was always his plan, and his plan was virtually identical to Hillary's plan as well.

As for it being a "small" force, military analysts estimated that in order to fulfill the missions he enumerated he would need to keep 50,000-75,000 troops in Iraq indefinitely.

Oh yes, and as for his insistence that he would not "build permanent bases", that is a nice transparent bit of verbal sleight of hand. He won't HAVE to build permanent bases because George Bush has already done so. And you can bet Obama will not leave those permanent bases empty and make his 50,000-75,000 troops sleep in tents out in the desert.

by Hurria (Muslawia@gmail.com) on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 05:28:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Didn't U.S. troops accidentally kill one of Maliki's nephews last week?  
by BooMan on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 11:19:20 AM EST
Yep

And women and children in an attack on a Sunni town also.  And probably lots of other people, since the use of air power as a force multiplier in urban areas has increased dramatically over the past several years.

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

by Steven D on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 11:24:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How "accidental" was it?
by gogol (lrblandin@sbcglobal.net) on Fri Jul 4th, 2008 at 01:17:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We are in the general election now, not the primary election, so of course the campaign will seek to sound more nuanced about this. They don't want to scare off the folks worried about an inexperienced president hastily withdrawing without talking to commanders first. He's always said that some residual forces would remain, mainly at the embassy.

But Obama's position has not changed. He's always said he will be careful getting out. He's always said that he would consult with commanders, to ensure it is done in an orderly and safe fashion.

But he's also said -- as he said to Rolling Stone just last week -- that getting troops out of Iraq is one of his top three priorities.  So all this panic about his Iraq position seems overblown to me. I highly doubt we'll see a FISA-like turnaround where Obama says "100 years in Iraq is fine with me".

by existenz on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 11:43:49 AM EST
I don't see where Obama has changed his position on Iraq. He's still saying exactly what he said from the beginning of the campaign.

On political conservatives: "I was so shocked I nearly dropped the Bible I was using to help me masturbate into my gun." Bill Maher
by lyvwyr101 (greatbear215@aol.com) on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 11:55:36 AM EST
To me Obama's biggest problem is these conservative leaning and hawkish advisors. I believe Susan Rice was all for regime change in Iraq and I would love to know the Iraq position of all his advisors BEFORE the invasion.

I am still waiting for Obama to level with the American people and realize that a Christian army in the middle of the muslim world will never ever help stabilize that country.

Blue Tidal Wave

by Mac G on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 12:20:25 PM EST
"a Christian army in the middle of the muslim world will never ever help stabilize that country."

Mac G, it has nothing whatsoever to do with a Christian anything in a Muslim anything. It has everything to do with human beings not like being bombed, invaded, having their homes, businesses, cities, families and lives destroyed, being dragged away in the middle of the night to be tortured, having their loved ones killed and maimed and being treated like shit by a violent foreign army. It's about human beings not liking a foreign power trying to take over their country, steal their resources, and force its will on them.

People need to stop looking at this as some kind of exotic Muslim thing, and see it for what it is - an absolutely predictable and 100% normal universal human reaction. Just ask yourself how Americans would react to ANY country, Muslim, Christian, Hindu, Buddhist, Jewish, or non-of-the-above doing to their country what their country has done to Iraq. It would not be any different, would it? So, why do people attribute it to some kind of "Muslim thing" about Christians instead of understanding that it is, quite simply, what humans do?

by Hurria (Muslawia@gmail.com) on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 05:42:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because we have the counterexamples of Puerto Rico, the Philippines (now, not then), Japan, Germany, South Korea, Guam, Hawaii, Samoa, etc.

Americans think they can occupy and make friends with anyone given enough time.

by BooMan on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 06:11:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Those are not valid counterexamples by an stretch of the imagination.

Iraqis do not despise the occupation because it is a "Christian" army (which it isn't anyway). Or do people believe that Iraqi Christians JUST LOOOOOOVE what the Americans have done and are doing in Iraq? If so, they have not talked to many Iraqi Christians obviously.

Please stop trying to turn it into something that is peculiar to Muslims. It is something that is universally human. Human beings don't like being bombed, they don't like having their loved ones killed and maimed, they don't like being treated like shit, especially by intruders, and they don't like having their entire lives and history dismantled, their resources taken by others for the benefit of the intruders, and their future determined by outsiders. If you (plural) were in Iraqis' place you would react exactly as they have. Exactly. Chew on that. Recognize it, and acknowledge it, please.

My god! Even ANIMALS defend their territory and fight back against other animals who invade, harm their shelters, threaten their young, and take their resources. It's not about Iraqis being Muslims or about your army supposedly being Christian.

by Hurria (Muslawia@gmail.com) on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 06:45:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PS Mac G., are you, by the way, suggesting that if a Muslim army did to Iraq what the U.S. has done and is doing to it, it would stabilize the country? That somehow Iraqis would accept all that from a Muslim army? If so, those of you who think this is about Muslims' reaction to a Christian army need to think again.
by Hurria (Muslawia@gmail.com) on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 05:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not the Tsar's fault. It's all those bad people around him.

I think I heard this one before.

by gogol (lrblandin@sbcglobal.net) on Fri Jul 4th, 2008 at 01:20:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This became completely predictable after Obama made his fawning speech before AIPAC the day after he clinched the nomination. As I noted on June 5: "this is not just about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Obama made it as clear as he could that he is going to sacrifice US national interests to the interests of Israel, as AIPAC perceives them. And AIPAC under no circumstances wants us out of Iraq."
by Alexander on Thu Jul 3rd, 2008 at 01:08:03 PM EST


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