What in the hell?  Russia isn't pushing for shit except for Saakashvili and his cronies to sign a permanent ceasefire and let Tshkinvali be what it was before - essentially autonomous and independent.

Someone's been twiddling with Saak's medication, that's for sure.  He popped this entire thing off on his OWN and was expecting his big daddy Bush and company (and McCain signed up immediately as well with the Talking Points) to rush to the rescue.

This ENTIRE thing was engineered and set up by GEORGIA for regime change, not Russia.  It was clearly planned by Georgia and looks to be in every way like one of those April Glaspie "green light" situations which will be recorded as a "misunderstanding" since it FAILED (on Tblisi's part).

This is an entirely Cheney/neocon engineered disaster and it's a testament to outstandingly skillful political moves on Putin/Medvedev's part that it didn't turn into a worldwide disaster with Moscow pulling a "Kosovo" on the whole thing, including the B-T-C pipeline.

Oh and Russia ain't bombing shit.  PLEASE tell me you aren't getting that from Civil.ge

More links if you need 'em to back up what I'm saying.

Pax

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

At this point, that Russia is pushing south into Georgia proper is just a rumor. The NY Times has backtracked on the article you link to, as I show here.

Russia intervening in its neighbor Georgia -- whose secession from the Soviet Union was not legal by the way -- is a case of "our enemies run[ning] roughshod over us"? What are you smoking?

In case you haven't heard or have forgotten, the Cold War is over. We are no longer in an ideological life-or-death struggle with Russia. Russia is just a regional superpower which, after Yeltsin, has declined to become one of our client states. Since it has refused to become our client state, it is our enemy, according to the prevailing wisdom of the Washington foreign policy establishment.

But you don't live in Washington. So how did you manage to drink the Washington Kool Aid? (Sorry to mix drug metaphors.)

Link to an English-language report from Russia here (Youtube).

For some darn good coverage from a mostly neutral source see Der Spiegel (in English)

Pax

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

But Booman, regime change is good! It worked in Iraq!

<sarcasm>


Recommended by Hideo Kojima

I've been watching this since late Thursday night when the shelling of S. Ossetia began.

Its very clear to me that:

1.  The US has been building up the Georgian military for several years.  This is the front porch of Russia proper.

2.  Russia has been watching this.  Prior to this acute conflict, a buildup of Russian heavy armor occurred on the Georgian border, concommitant with the US/Israeli training program known as 'Immediate Response'.  Hell, Condi Rice was there one month prior to this conflict (July 10).

3.  Russia is highly pissed at the US incursions on its former territories, the highlight of which is our intention to put our 'missile shield' in the Czech Republic.

4.  Georgia's actions on S. Ossetia were absolutely reprehensible.  There was a cease-fire agreement in place for Aug. 8, which Georgia broke by heavy shelling of Tshinvali.  The reports I've seen about this shelling are 2000 dead, the city destroyed.  These were not military targets, they were civilian targets.  It was this action that gave Russia the 'moral' upperhand to invade, the excuse was that something like 90% of the S. Ossetians had been issued Russian passports.

5.  This conflict was ignited (in a bed of dry timbers with flames all around) by the Georgian president, Saakashvili.  Here is what boggles me.  The US has been helping to arm and train the Georgian military to the teeth for years.  Rice was there one month ago.  How in the hell does the Georgian president, launch this suicidal gambit without consulting with Washington?  On the opening fucking day of the Olympics?  To me this kind of incompetence has Cheney written all over it.  The past three days I've seen that bastard Saakashvili begging for western help - US, Europe, Nato - help that would pretty much be the start of WWIII (or IV if you prefer James Woolsey's numeration).

6.  The BP pipeline, aka the BTC (Baku-Tblisi-Ceylon) pipeline.  If Russia wanted to fuck it up, fuck it up Russia would.  Reports of it being bombed yet missed are just a clue to Russia's game plan.  They are saying, we can fuck this shit up bad if we want to, but we are not.

7.  What Russia is doing is precisely this:  They are stopping the US MIC right in its tracks in Georgia.  They are saying, NO MORE.  They were given a plausible excuse, a plausible excuse they have been waiting for, and they are going to defeat all the ideas the neocons ever had for Georgia, even if this means forcible and destructive annexation of the Georgian province.

Booman, I've read your site for a long time.  I generally agree with your assessments, but I think you are absolutely wrong when you state that "The events that precipitated this invasion are still in dispute".  Absolutely false.  The events that precipated this was the US MIC surrounding Russia, and Russia seeing an easy opportunity to roll some of this back with a huge FU to the US neocons and anyone else acquiescing to the US imperial demands in the former Soviet Union.  The bear is flexing its muscle, something we haven't seen in awhile.

One more note.  If Russia successfully annexes/subjugates Georgia to its liking, it makes it that much closer to a direct land link to Iran, leaving only Azerbaijan in the path.  Personally, I think this is a big deal.

One other note.  All parties involved, the US, Georgia, Russia and some would say Israel, are guilty of this tragedy, minus the civilians.  I do place more blame on the US, because we shouldn't have been there in the first place.

Bleh.  I'd donate one of my nuts if the global MIC could be dismantled.

.

I'm sorry BooMan, you are rehashing western propaganda similar to the reaction of our future president McShame or Hussein. Doesn't promise to be a bright future for American foreign policy in the next decade. A bit of introspection wouldn't hurt.

The facts on the ground in Abkhazia are as follows. The president of Abkhazia Sergei Bagapsh is a dictator like Georgian Saakashvili. There is an uncomfortable truce with a number of skirmishes like downing a Georgian UVA (made in Israel) earlier this year.  There is a UN Mission and Russian peacekeeping force along a stretch of disputed land in the Kodori Gorge separating the two 'states'. Abkhazia has called on Russia and the UN to remove its peacekeepers, who have left along with most civilians living in this area. The Abhazian troops are poised and have announced they will move into this area and take possession, now that Georgia is preoccupied with its military aggression in S Ossatia.

Commander in Chief Saakashvili is spending all of his time dumping propaganda trash over western viewers, especially the gullible and naive American citizens. Both presidential candidates included. That's true horror.

UN concerned war will spread to Abkhazia

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

Shakshvilli started a war. He has lost it. At some point his people will get rid of him. Unless all that military equipment the US will resupply him with is turned on his own people and he does have alittle previous there.

Anyone who's told by a Bush that they're an ally had better watch out.  Just ask the Shiites how well the uprising against Saddam Hussein went when Bush Senior allowed them to be slaughtered. Or the Kurds: that weent really well for them too.

Georgia is an ally of convenience because they were naive enough to support the war in Iraq by sending troops. As thrilling as it is to see Dick Cheney poke out his head and threaten the Russians, I really don't see what options the US has.  We're certainly not going to make any extraordinary actions to save their bacon, a fact the georgians seem to be grasping belatedly.

And just for the record, Jerome a Paris' analysis seems  very well informed.  It differs substantially from yours.  However, I am not informed enough to know who's correct. Interestingly, you seem to believe "his take is basically correct" while taking a different position on whether this is an uncalled for aggressive invasion or a response to provocation.

Jerome: "Russia has explicitly stated that bringing countries like Ukraine and Georgia, long parts of its empire, into NATO, would be seen as an aggressive act. Is that such an irrational position to take? (I mean, look at US policy towards Cuba...) And yet the US is pushing hard to do that, despite these explicit warnings. Who is being provocative and clamoring for conflict - those that bring military forces to the borders of Russia, or those that say they consider this threatening and will react unpleasantly if it goes on?"

Booman: "I don't pretend to be an expert on the former Soviet Socialist Republics but I do get the strong sense that Russia is so bloated with income from high energy prices that they are feeling very aggressive and looking to force the United States and Britain out of their former territory. The invasion of Georgia appears to be a gambit to take over control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the Black Sea ports that are transit points for Caspian energy supplies."

either way, i do feel that this comment:

Our troops are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and our economy is weak and our budget overwhelmed. Meanwhile, Russia is flush with cash and their troops are well-rested. With a lame-duck president and the country embroiled in a presidential election year, it was the perfect time for Russia to reassert itself.

...anyway, off to work.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??

Booman -- I don't understand your attitude about this. Russia is a vast, rich, strong country that got the shit kicked out of it at the end of the last century by a combination of internal failings and external enemies. It's people suffered.

Some years later, their fortunes revived thanks to oil and a ruthless regime.

Meanwhile, the shitkickers (us) tried to reorganize the world to keep Russia down. A combination of internal incompetence and external enemies has greatly weakened us, so the revived Russia wants try to regain some ground.

I can and do worry about the Ossetians, Georgians and others who find themselves in the way of the great power meat grinder. I don't have any sympathy with any of the powers in this though. And I certainly don't feel I have any interest, as a citizen of the US or as a citizen of the world, in encircling and threatening Russia. This doesn't work for peace.

Can It Happen Here?

I've got limited knowledge of this region, but man, I keep getting archduke assassination vibes.

Here's a video (in English) from an American living in the region calling Bush and Saakashvili for what they are - WAR CRIMINALS.

Pax

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

The San Francisco Chronicle stories, AP dispatches by someone named MISHA DZHINDZHIKHASHVILI, read like Georgian propaganda. For ex, this morning's story expresses puzzlement because right before the war Russia hadn't been bunching its troops near the border. Of course they didn't. They weren't the ones who invaded!

I think that Russia has legitimate concerns about South Ossetia and Abkhazia and the treatment of ethnic Russians. It will be interesting how the genocide charges play out. My guess is that they'll be ignored, like Isebegovic's and Tudjman's handiwork in Yugoslavia were ignored.

But more important for Russia, it controls the flow of most of the oil and gas that goes from Baku et al west to Europe. As I've mentioned many times here, there is an oil pipeline that Big Oil is trying to run south from the old Central Soviet Republics. Through Afghanistan. Which is why we are still there six years after bin Laden left. You know, came for bin Laden, stayed for the oil. Only maybe after all we came for the oil in the first place.

You can almost see Obama negotiating with Big Oil. "Look, this Iraq occupation is bankrupting us for your profits. We can maybe keep something going there on a smaller scale. Some bases and leave Halliburton in place. But I'll give you the pipeline through Afghanistan." That looks like the deal, and as bad as it sounds, it'll be better than McCain's version of the future.

Just as with Chechinya, Russia's moving back into Georgia.
Ukraine's next up.

"Think this through with me, Let me know your mind" Hunter/Garcia

.
Headline from Moscow:
Russia's Medvedev: operation in S.Ossetia near conclusion

Headline from Tbilisi:
Russia expands Georgia blitz, deploys ships

Russian tanks heading for Gori was based on a rumor, many civilians have left the city. It's clear, Georgian troops are retreating and demoralized. Georgia has met its fate and a double defeat: S Ossatia and Abkhazi territory. Russia and the ethic people have suffered but won a clear victory.

'Invasion of Georgia' a '3 a.m. moment'

≈ Cross-posted from my diary -- Heated Cold War Exchange at UNSC ≈

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

I agree with soj, Alexander and Safi. Georgia screwed themselves by investing in U.S. military hardware instead of investing in their own economy. They needed to figure out an accommodation with Russia but instead they let their desire to suck up to the U.S. get the better of them. Their bad.

You, Booman, need to step back and examine your assumptions as you misfired on this one.

Jeff Wegerson

Oh no, here come the Russians! OMG!!

mbr + dv + woyg

"our enemies run roughshod over us."

Run rougshod over YOU?! Excuse me?! I thought the Russians were running roughshod over Georgia.

Seriously, BooMan everything is NOT about you guys.