Booman Tribune

Making It No Contest

by BooMan
Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 11:41:17 PM EST

In American politics, symbols are more important than power structures for a simple reason. Power structures are hidden. Most people don't know who they're voting for when they cast their vote for some individual candidate. In their mind they are voting for a candidate, not for a faction. This is particularly true for the independent voter that does not identify with any particular faction. And by independent voter, I don't mean the voters on the left and right fringes that vote for third-party candidates. By independent voter I mean the people that are truly persuadable as supporters of one of the two major parties. It is these voters in a dozen and a half swing states that determine the outcomes of national elections. And it is these voters, in all 50 states (in the Democrat's case), that determined the outcome of the primaries.

I see American politics in terms of power and faction. In the primaries, I looked at the candidates in terms of which power blocs they were relying on to propel them to power. John Edwards was being powered predominantly by trial lawyers and a smattering of labor unions. Hillary Clinton was being powered by lobbyists, corporate cash, and the Democratic big donor list. And Barack Obama was being powered by the anti-Clinton faction (Daschle/Gephardt) of Congress, plus academia, some unions, urban progressive organizations, and small donors.

Based on that, it was easy to put Edwards and Obama in one category and Hillary Clinton in another. I knew which coalitions I favored (unions, urban and academic progressives, and small donors) and which I opposed (corporate lobbyists and big donors). That Barack Obama was black and that Hillary Clinton was a woman held some interest to me (it made both candidates more attractive) but was of secondary importance, at best.

I was consistently frustrated to see Democratic women, particularly progressive women, that found Clinton's gender so compelling. I was also frustrated by academic progressives that took no account of the obstacles and compromises an urban progressive must navigate to maintain their viability as a general election candidate. But, most of all, I was depressed to see how few people understood that they were supporting and opposing factions, not individual people.

If you focus on factions you will have a much better idea what a candidate will seek to do in office than if you listen to their latest poll-tested drivel. George W. Bush fashioned himself a 'compassionate conservative' who thought we should have a more humble foreign policy. Hillary Clinton said she was tested and ready on Day One. None of that matters. What mattered was that Bush was being advised on foreign policy by neo-conservatives and on energy policy by Big Oil & Gas. Clinton was being advised by Mark Penn and other free-trading corporate hacks.

But the rubber meets the road where independent voters make up their minds. Bush was more likable than Gore and Kerry. That was enough to keep the elections close. There are two ways to win a national election. If you win the argument outright, like Ronald Reagan did in 1980 and 1984, most of the country will vote for you. But if the argument ends in dispute, it goes to the judges. And the judges are independent voters in a dozen and a half states that don't have large party biases in either direction.

There are things you can do to improve your chances of winning in a judged election. If you can register enough new voters and mobilize them, you can take a swing state and turn it into a blue state or red state. You can win the argument in one region of the country (while failing to win it others) and sweep all the swing states in that region.

What we are trying to do is to win the argument. If we can win the argument, almost every state in the union will vote for us. The selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican vice-presidential race opens up an opportunity for the Democrats to win the argument in every region of the country. McCain is hoping that she will hold her own and force the decision to the judges. He hopes she will help him turn out his base in a few red states and take them out of contention. But he also hopes she will win over independent voters in the dozen and a half swing states.

Provided that they haven't lost the argument, those independent voters are unlikely to vote for or against McCain for rational reasons. Policy will not be decisive. Personality will be decisive. Trust will be decisive. Intangible qualities and current events will be as important as message. Sarah Palin is likeable. She's nice. In some ways she is reassuringly normal. And she is a woman...an attractive woman.

That's what McCain is betting on in this roll of the dice. There's nothing wrong with Joe Biden. He's a nice-looking attractive personality, too. But we don't want this to get down to a beauty contest. Not against a former beauty queen, anyway. We want to win this argument. We want to win it in the Midwest and in the South. We want to win it the Plains States and in the Mountain States. Ronald Reagan won New York and Massachusetts and California because he won the argument. When you win the argument, there are no blue states and no red states.

The Republicans cannot win the argument. Not this year. But they can keep it close enough to throw it to the low-information independent voters than make up their minds on matters of personality. That is why McCain picked Palin. We can try to make her less likable. But what we really need to do is make it no contest.



Display:
I don't understand what you mean by "win the argument." Could you please explain? Thanks.

What is the difference between creating "likeability" and "winning the argument?"

My recollection of the first Reagan campaign was one of superior marketing - a "pretty" face with a soothing voice and the familiarity of being in the entertainment business. He sold "trickle down economics," less government - with fewer social programs, less taxes - all packaged with the reassurances that all could be made well again.

Those who dance are considered insane by those who can't hear the music. (George Carlin)

by tampopo on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 01:11:15 AM EST
Winning the argument looks like this:

MARVIN STONE, U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT: Governor, as you're well aware, the question of war and peace has emerged as a central issue in this campaign in the give and take of recent weeks. President Carter has been criticized for responding late to aggressive Soviet impulses, for insufficient build-up of our armed forces. and a paralysis in dealing with Afghanistan and Iran. You have been criticized for being all too quick to advocate the use of lots of muscle - military action - to deal with foreign crises. Specifically, what are the differences between the two of you on the uses of American military power?

MR. REAGAN: I don't know what the differences might be, because I don't know what Mr. Carter's policies are. I do know what he has said about mine. And I'm only here to tell you that I believe with all my heart that our first priority must be world peace, and that use of force is always and only a last resort, when everything else has failed, and then only with regard to our national security. Now, I believe, also, that this meeting this mission, this responsibility for preserving the peace, which I believe is a responsibility peculiar to our country, and that we cannot shirk our responsibility as a leader of the free world because we're the only ones that can do it. Therefore, the burden of maintaining the peace falls on us. And to maintain that peace requires strength. America has never gotten in a war because we were too strong. We can get into a war by letting events get out of hand, as they have in the last three and a half years under the foreign policies of this Administration of Mr. Carter's, until we're faced each time with a crisis. And good management in preserving the peace requires that we control the events and try to intercept before they become a crisis. I have seen four wars in my lifetime. I'm a father of sons; I have a grandson. I don't ever want to see another generation of young Americans bleed their lives into sandy beachheads in the Pacific, or rice paddies and jungles in the in Asia or the muddy battlefields of Europe.

MR. SMITH: Mr. Stone, do you have a follow-up question for the Governor?

MR. STONE: Yes. Governor, we've been hearing that the defense build-up that you would associate yourself with would cost tens of billions of dollars more than is now contemplated. Assuming that the American people are ready to bear this cost, they nevertheless keep asking the following question: How do you reconcile huge increases in military outlays with your promise of substantial tax cuts and of balancing the budget, which in this fiscal year, the one that just ended, ran more than $60 billion in the red?

MR. REAGAN: Mr. Stone, I have submitted an economic plan that I have worked out in concert with a number of fine economists in this country, all of whom approve it, and believe that over a five year projection, this plan can permit the extra spending for needed refurbishing of our defensive posture, that it can provide for a balanced budget by 1983 if not earlier, and that we can afford - along with the cuts that I have proposed in Government. spending - we can afford the tax cuts I have proposed and probably mainly because Mr. Carter's economic policy has built into the next five years, and on beyond that, a tax increase that will be taking $86 billion more out of the people's pockets than was taken this year. And my tax cut does not come close to eliminating that $86 billion increase. I'm only reducing the amount of the increase. In other words, what I'm talking about is not putting government back to getting less money than government's been getting, but simply cutting the increase in in spending.

MR. SMITH: The same question now goes to President Carter. President Carter, would you like to have the question repeated?

MR. STONE: Yes, President Carter, the question of war and peace, a central issue in this campaign. You've been criticized for, in the give and take, for responding late to aggressive Soviet impulses, for an insufficient build-up of our armed forces, and a paralysis in dealing with Afghanistan and Iran. Governor Reagan, on the other hand, has been criticized for being all too quick to advocate the use of lots of muscle - military action - to deal with foreign crises such as I have mentioned. Specifically, what are the differences between the two of you on the uses of American military power?

MR. CARTER: Mr. Stone, I've had to make thousands of decisions since I've been President, serving in the Oval Office. And with each one of those decisions that affect the future of my country, I have learned in the process. I think I'm a much wiser and more experienced man than I was when I debated four years ago against President Ford. I've also learned that there are no simple answers to complicated questions. H. L. Mencken said that for every problem there's a simple answer. It would be neat and plausible and wrong. The fact is that this nation, in the eight years before I became President, had its own military strength decreased. Seven out of eight years, the budget commitments for defense went down, 37% in all. Since I've been in office, we've had a steady, carefully planned, methodical but, very effective increase in our commitment for defense. But what we've done is use that enormous power and prestige and military strength of the United States to preserve the peace. We've not only kept peace for our own country, but we've been able to extend the benefits of peace to others. In the Middle East, we've worked for a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, successfully, and have tied ourselves together with Israel and Egypt in a common defense capability. This is a very good step forward for our nation's security, and we'll continue to do as we have done in the past. I might also add that there are decisions that are made in the Oval Office by every President which are profound in nature. There are always trouble spots in the world, and how those troubled areas are addressed by a President alone in that Oval Office affects our nation directly, the involvement of the United States and also our American interests. That is a basic decision that has to be made so frequently, by every President who serves. That is what I have tried to do successfully by keeping our country at peace.

MR. SMITH: Mr. Stone, do you have a follow-up for?

MR. STONE: Yes. I would like to be a little more specific on the use of military power and let's talk about one area for a moment. Under what circumstances would you use military forces to deal with, for example, a shut-off of the Persian Oil Gulf [sic] if that should occur, or to counter Russian expansion beyond Afghanistan into either Iran or Pakistan? I ask this question in view of charges that we are woefully unprepared to project sustained - and I emphasize the word sustained - power in that part of the world.

MR. CARTER: Mr. Stone, in my State of the Union address earlier this year, I pointed out that any threat to the stability or security of the Persian Gulf would be a threat to the security of our own country. In the past, we have not had an adequate military presence in that region. Now we have two major carrier task forces. We have access to facilities in five different areas of that region. And we've made it clear that working with our allies and others, that we are prepared to address any foreseeable eventuality which might interrupt commerce with that crucial area of the world. But in doing this, we have made sure that we address this question peacefully, not injecting American military forces into combat, but letting the strength of our nation be felt in a beneficial way. This, I believe, has assured that our interests will be protected in the Persian Gulf region, as we have done in the Middle East and throughout the world.

MR. SMITH: Governor Reagan, you have a minute to comment or rebut.

MR. REAGAN: Well yes, I question the figure about the decline in defense spending under the two previous Administrations in the preceding eight years to this Administration. I would call to your attention that we were in a war that wound down during those eight years, which of course made a change in military spending because of turning from war to peace. I also would like to point out that Republican presidents in those years, faced with a Democratic majority in both houses of the Congress, found that their requests for defense budgets were very often cut. Now, Gerald Ford left a five-year projected plan for a military build-up to restore our defenses, and President Carter's administration reduced that by 38%, cut 60 ships out of the Navy building program that had been proposed, and stopped the the B-l, delayed the cruise missile, stopped the production line for the Minuteman missile, stopped the Trident or delayed the Trident submarine, and now is planning a mobile military force that can be delivered to various spots in the world which does make me question his assaults on whether I am the one who is quick to look for use of force.

MR. SMITH: President Carter, you have the last word on this question.

MR. CARTER: Well, there are various elements of defense. One is to control nuclear weapons, which I hope we'll get to later on because that is the most important single issue in this campaign. Another one is how to address troubled areas of the world. I think, habitually, Governor Reagan has advocated the injection of military forces into troubled areas, when I and my predecessors - both Democrats and Republicans - have advocated resolving those troubles in those difficult areas of the world peacefully, diplomatically, and through negotiation. In addition to that, the build-up of military forces is good for our country because we've got to have military strength to preserve the peace. But I'll always remember that the best weapons are the ones that are never fired in combat, and the best soldier is one who never has to lay his life down on the field of battle. Strength is imperative for peace, but the two must go hand in hand.

Reagan won this argument decisively and, therefore, won the election decisively.

by BooMan on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 02:12:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He won the "war and peace" argument?

I'd say Carter won the argument, if you were approaching it in a rational fashion.  Agree with the earlier commenter on marketing.  It was superior marketing.

by Heart of the Rockies on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 08:55:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd suggest reading Glenn Greenwald's take on the Democratic Convention.  He makes two points:

1.  The Democrats failed to tell the American people that there was a revolution during the Bush/Cheney years, a revolution that changed our way of government in very fundamental ways.  Instead,

"The overriding impression one has is that the only things really wrong during the last eight years in this country are that gas prices are high and not everyone has health insurance. "

2.  They painted McCain as a benign old man who simply had a few different ideas about things and

"...almost completely avoided any criticisms of McCain the Person, who will emerge from the four days here as a Wonderful, Honorable, Courageous Man -- a friend to Democrats and Republicans alike -- who just happens to be wrong on some issues. The Republicans will spend the next four days mercilessly ripping Barack Obama's character to shreds...."

Could people weigh in on whether, given this strategy, the Democrats are trying to win a judged election or no contest election, as Booman puts it?  

by Heart of the Rockies on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 09:40:31 AM EST
Also available in orange.
by BooMan on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 11:44:10 PM EST
One way for the Obama campaign to minimize whatever value Palin brings is to simply ignore her, and stay focused on McCain like a laser.  She's an unknown, and let's not do her any favors by giving her more exposure.

I have two theories about why she is the VP pick.  The first is that no other GOP member of stature wanted the job.  They probably regard joining the McCain team as a kamikaze mission.

The other is that he's short- 5'7.  She is the only person on the list of possibles that wouldn't dwarf McCain and make him look ridiculous.

by eagleye on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 12:29:46 AM EST
The other is that he's short- 5'7.

Well, that's good news! Usually, the taller presidential candidate wins, unless the election is stolen, of course.

I think the reasoning for why she was chosen is that it was felt that she offsets McCain's negatives: he is a decrepit old male, while she is a relatively young woman. And, when it comes to the Republican base, she is a wingnut, which the base doubts McCain is, so the hope goes, that will help with turnout.

"Israel is a good friend of Israel." -- Barack Obama. Is that a Freudian slip indicating that Obama suspects that Israel is not a good friend of the US?

by Alexander on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 01:18:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Come on! He doesn't need her help. He does an excellent job of making himself look ridiculous.
by Hurria (Muslawia@gmail.com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 04:02:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 12:56:11 AM EST
When I saw this my first thought was "Wow!" But following BooMan's link to info on the '80 Reagan - Carter debates, I found out 80 million watched them. Checking out the more recent debates I found figures in the 60s to the 40s.

Now I am thinking 38 million is not so good after all.  :(

Those who dance are considered insane by those who can't hear the music. (George Carlin)

by tampopo on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 12:14:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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