Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

The Road to 60

by BooMan
Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 01:21:09 AM EST

Here is my ranking of the 23 Republican-held Senate seats in terms of the most likely to switch hands to the Democrats.

1. New Mexico- Pete Domenici (Rep. Steve Pearce vs. Rep. Tom Udall)
2. Virginia- John Warner (Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore vs. Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner)
3. New Hampshire- Sen. John Sununu vs. Fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
4. Alaska- Sen. Ted Stevens vs. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
5. Colorado- Wayne Allard (Fmr. Rep Bob Schaffer vs. Rep. Mark Udall)
6. Mississippi (2)- Sen. Roger Wicker vs. Fmr. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
7. Oregon- Sen. Gordon Smith vs. Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley
8. Minnesota- Sen. Norm Coleman vs. Al Franken
9. North Carolina- Sen. Elizabeth Dole vs. State Sen. Kay Hagan
10. Maine- Sen. Susan Collins vs. Rep. Tom Allen
11. Kentucky- Minority Leader Mitch McConnell vs. Bruce Lunsford
12. Georgia- Sen. Saxby Chambliss vs. Fmr. State Rep. Jim Martin
13. Idaho- Larry Craig (Fmr. Gov. Jim Risch vs. Fmr. Rep. Larry LaRocco)
14. Texas- Sen. John Cornyn vs. State Rep. Rick Noriega
15. Kansas- Sen. Pat Roberts vs. Fmr. Rep. Jim Slattery
16. Oklahoma- Sen. James Inhofe vs. State Sen. Andrew Rice
17. Tennessee- Sen. Lamar Alexander vs. Bob Tuke
18. Nebraska- Chuck Hagel (Fmr. Gov. Mike Johanns vs. Scott Kleeb)
19. South Carolina- Sen. Lindsey Graham vs. Bob Conley
20. Wyoming (2)- Sen. Mike Barrasso vs. ???
21. Alabama- Jeff Sessions vs. State Sen. Vivian Figures
22. Mississippi (1)- Sen. Thad Cochran vs. State Rep. Erik Fleming
23. Wyoming (1)- Mike Enzi vs. ???

In my opinion, we are likely to win all of the top six selections. In the rankings between seven and eighteen, I think it is possible that we will win four more. It seems very possible that we can pick up ten seats. Andrew Rice and Scott Kleeb are both excellent candidates that could well run way ahead of expectations. Rick Noriega needs money but he is also an excellent candidate. Jeff Merkley, Al Franken, and Tom Allen will all be running in states that Obama will win comfortably. Liddy Dole, Saxby Chambliss, and John Cornyn are all very flawed and vulnerable candidates. And Mitch McConnell is not safe. I think even Bob Tuke in Tennessee has the potential to make his race competitive. And Idaho's GOP might be just fractious enough to let Larry LaRocco squeak through.

As of tonight, I predict a pick-up of ten senate seats. Subtracting Lieberman from the caucus, that would give the Democrats (including Bernie Sanders) a 60-40 margin, enabling them to defeat any filibuster where they remain united.

I am admittedly going beyond what the evidence is showing me. My prediction is not based on current polling numbers but on an estimation of the talents of the second and third-tier candidates. I think we can win four of the following twelve contests:

1. Oregon- Sen. Gordon Smith vs. Speaker of the House Jeff Merkely
2. Minnesota- Sen. Norm Coleman vs. Al Franken
3. North Carolina- Sen. Elizabeth Dole vs. State Sen. Kay Hagan
4. Maine- Sen. Susan Collins vs. Rep. Tom Allen
5. Kentucky- Minority Leader Mitch McConnell vs. Bruce Lunsford
6. Georgia- Sen. Saxby Chambliss vs. Fmr. State Rep. Jim Martin
7. Idaho- Larry Craig (Fmr. Gov. Jim Risch vs. Fmr. Rep. Larry LaRocco)
8. Texas- Sen. John Cornyn vs. State Rep. Rick Noriega
9. Kansas- Sen. Pat Roberts vs. Fmr. Rep. Jim Slattery
10. Oklahoma- Sen. James Inhofe vs. State Sen. Andrew Rice
11. Tennessee- Sen. Lamar Alexander vs. Bob Tuke
12. Nebraska- Chuck Hagel (Fmr. Gov. Mike Johanns vs. Scott Kleeb)

Hitting 33% of these races seems doable to me. But it's a good question whether such a majority will be cohesive enough to stick together and override filibusters.

The Road to 60 | 16 comments (16 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

i want to believe! (4.00 / 4)

no, seriously, i really do. i hope you're right, and when i'm in a hopeful mood, i agree with your analysis. but you know me; i'm always expecting the lucy/charlie brown football moment. let's say we get to the magical "60 vote" margin. who's to say that "our" leaderz won't come up with some other excuse for why they can't end the war, reign in the Fed, etc? so long as they aren't threatened by, well, pitchforks and torches, what motivation do they have?

buy it will be fun to watch Mr. Father of the Intertubes go down, goddess bless us with that at least. eat it, your corrupt piece of shit.

by chicago dyke (anheduanna at yahoo.com) on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 01:55:33 AM EST

Re: The Road to 60 (4.00 / 2)

And when we get that 60...then what?

What will the excuse be from the Netroots when those 60 refuse to end the war?

More at Zandar vs. The Stupid.

by Zandar1 on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 09:08:08 AM EST

Re: The Road to 60 (none / 0)

The rest of us will be so busy making mud pies and trying to eat them that we won't care to notice what the Dem leadership is doing in Washington (see Haiti). We're in for a big change here. As the house of cards of advanced capitalism collapses from the winds of change, the US will suffer a huge loss of economic ability. We'll be in welfare lines, waiting for our handouts, trying to keep warm in our bankrupted domiciles.

I don't have much faith that a Democratic majority will truly solve problems and promote a progressive agenda. I do think that a Democratic majority will begin to address the inequities that have been developing, and will do a patchwork job on the economy-as-it-is to prevent some disaster, but for real change, I can't conceive that dinosaur being able to shed it's attachment to business as usual.

Share. Share resources, share delight, share burdens, share the healing. Sharing will bring us back from mass suicide. www.share-international.org

by Isis on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 10:02:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road to 60 (4.00 / 2)

I'm afraid that it is going to take a monumental economic collapse before anyone inside the Washington bubble is going to even consider anything substantive.

Right now things are bad in disparate sections of the economy. But for the most part people are not really feeling significant pain, only minor discomforts. Yeah, gas is high. But people, on the whole, are adjusting. Yeah, food prices are going through the roof. But most middle class families are making small modifications to their purchasing and still feel like they can make their budgets work. Yeah, the stock market is volatile. But most people are feeling like they can ride the wave once again to it's perceived inevitable stabilization. They think it's just another business cycle.

But what is not obvious to most, and is being reported by almost no one, is that the U.S. economy right now is nothing more than a house of cards. Held together by smoke and mirrors, the machinations of the Fed and corporate shell games that are not addressing the fundamental inadequacies that exist, but serve only to line the pockets of the corporations while the gettin' is good.

I think it is going to get worse, a lot worse. And people are not going to be prepared. And they will be stunned beyond belief when it happens. I believe the implosion will be sudden and triggered by something that has not yet even been contemplated publicly. We have not seen the full ramifications of the catastrophic policies implemented over the last ten years. Many, many people are truly struggling in this economy right now. But to be brutally honest, these people are looked on by Washington as being on the fringes of the economy, not in the fat middle. But when the full effects reach up and begin having significant impacts on those families in the $125K-$250K range of household income, you can be sure that the torches and pitchforks will appear in Washington. By then it will likely be beyond the reach of some kind of "patch" or "stimulus". I think the worst is yet to come. I am afraid we will all get to taste very soon the bitter fruit which we have sown over the last decade.

"Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity"

by MikeInOhio (miken45054@yahoo.com) on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 11:13:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road to 60 (none / 1)

I tend to agree. It will be worse than most people think, and it will be devastating to the middle classes who vote Republican: your car dealer, mall store operator, franchise owner, construction entrepreneur, developers. The lawyers and professionals will be ok, as they were in the Great Depression, but the business people are in for a very rough ride when consumer spending falls off sharply this fall, and the Christmas spending doesn't materialize. Let's not even talk about airlines!

The economy is in a kind of holding pattern that is not holding. The last time we experienced this kind of economic interregnum was November 1932 to March 1933, when the banking system collapsed.

Knut

by Knut Wicksell (b_didnn@hotmail.ca) on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 11:17:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road to 60 (none / 0)

Elegantly put. My point exactly with the real flesh to show substantiality. Thanks.

Share. Share resources, share delight, share burdens, share the healing. Sharing will bring us back from mass suicide. www.share-international.org

by Isis on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 12:31:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road to 60 (none / 0)

I honestly believe we'll either be in the middle of war with Iran, a full blown depression, or both by this time next year.

More at Zandar vs. The Stupid.

by Zandar1 on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 10:20:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow (none / 0)

We have a speculative chance of hitting 60, and what is the response?

What happens if they do not vote like we wish?

Why not discuss HOW to get to 60 instead of whining immediately about how terrible it will be once we are there?

by dataguy on Thu Aug 7th, 2008 at 12:24:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road to 60 (none / 0)

I'm less worried about the filibusters, providing the Democrats reach 58 votes or so. Reid can force them actually to filibuster, and keep holding cloture votes until the Pukes break ranks. A few losses on that score will force them to hold their fire. It is important to send that message right away, so that Obama can get his Court and other nominees through the hoop. The Dems should start playing hardball. Based on what I've seen of Obama's campaign so far, he will be giving them all the support they need to cut the Thugs' filibusters off at the knees.

Knut

by Knut Wicksell (b_didnn@hotmail.ca) on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 11:13:01 AM EST

Re: The Road to 60 (none / 0)

if only Jim Slattery had some money, he could put Sen. Pat Roberts away. Remember it was Sen. Roberts who rubber stamped the Pre-Iraq war intelligence from the CIA.

by americanforliberty on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 11:35:47 AM EST

Re: The Road to 60 (4.00 / 1)

Slattery doesn't need that much money. I talked to him about that. He can run ads in Kansas for a month for the cost of a single spot in Philly. Donations to Slattery will go a long way towards victory.

by BooMan on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 11:58:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road to 60 (4.00 / 1)

Sounds like an excellent use of donation power!

http://www.slatteryforsenate.com/?home

Share. Share resources, share delight, share burdens, share the healing. Sharing will bring us back from mass suicide. www.share-international.org

by Isis on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 12:30:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road to 60 (none / 1)

the same is true for Andrew Rice in Oklahoma, Scott Kleeb in Nebraska, Larry LaRocco in Idaho, and Mark Begich in Alaska.

by BooMan on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 12:39:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Road to 60 (none / 0)

I was going to make the same comment about Jim Slattery needing more money to defeat Pat Roberts. Roberts has been running ads that are laughably bad in my opinion, but they've been running non-stop for the past month. Slattery needs to answer Roberts' ads with new ones of his own, but that hasn't happened yet. I don't know if he was waiting for the primary to be over or if he's waiting for the Democratic convention and Olympics to be over, but he needs get things going soon.

by KansasVoter on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 05:18:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Road to 60 (none / 0)

it's interesting to note that 4 of the RATs facing tough re-election campaigns have decided to skip the RATfest convention:

Six Republican senators to skip GOP convention
...Sens. Ted Stevens of Alaska, Gordon Smith of Oregon, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Susan Collins of Maine all face tough re-election campaigns. Two others, Wayne Allard of Colorado and Larry Craig of Idaho, are retiring.
AP

dick "dick" cheney may stay home as well, and chimpy's only staying one day.

they're running away from the past 8 years as fast as they dare.

the revolution will not be televised...Peace

by dada on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 01:18:27 PM EST

Re: The Road to 60 (none / 0)

One of the problem with overly optimistic projections is that they generate pessimistic responses. It's one of Newton's laws or something.

I see the Democrats gaining zero to 2 seats. I'll take the first three pickups on your list, and only those. Begich beats Stevens, but I don't expect Stevens to be on the ballot in November. Against the three pickups, I think you lose one if Reed, Dodd or Bayh is VP and you lose another if Lieberman caucuses with the Republicans. I see Landrieu as only slightly favored to keep her seat. I expect the Dems to have 51-53 seats in the next senate.

I really like some of the candidates the Democrats are running. I would love to see Andrew Rice in the Senate. I just don't see it happening.

by JLG on Wed Aug 6th, 2008 at 01:27:08 PM EST

The Road to 60 | 16 comments (16 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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