Booman Tribune

Banks Hoarding Cash Worldwide

by Steven D
Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 08:33:32 AM EST

Actually, "banks" in the title above is a term one can apply to any lender, including insurance companies, venture capital funds, etc. And yes, they are hoarding cash and refusing to lend money, leading to speculation that the central banks of the richest countries in the world will be coordinating a cut of their respective interest rates this week to spur banks and other lenders to come out of hiding because the money must flow:

TOKYO (Reuters) - Central banks and regulators scrambled on Tuesday to relieve the strain on financial markets frazzled by another hefty blow to confidence, this time from the rejection by U.S. lawmakers of a $700 billion rescue plan.

Global central banks more than doubled the amount of dollar funding to $620 billion, but the move showed no signs on Tuesday of thawing the freeze in money markets where banks are hoarding cash and bracing for more trouble ahead in the deepening year-long credit crisis.

Analysts said central banks may now be forced to cut interest rates in a coordinated move because their massive fund injections have done little to ease strains that are threatening to become a bigger systemic breakdown that could endanger the global economy.

Hey, I'm no economist, and I didn't sleep in a Holiday Inn last night, but even I can see that what we have is the equivalent of the proverbial "stuffing cash under the mattress," only this time it isn't your nutty old Uncle Tim or Aunt Lucy burying jars of Benjamins in their backyard, it's every lender on the planet, scared to death that by putting their money in the hands of other lenders they could lose their proverbial shirts, pants, belts and suspenders. And so we have the bizarre experience of foreign leaders and finance ministers publicly begging our Congress to pass a bailout bill, any bailout bill, ASAP, just to keep the world's economy from running out of cash:

Australia, Britain and Europe are working to convince U.S. lawmakers to pass the $700 billion rescue package, which would allow the U.S. Treasury to buy up bad debt from banks, Australia's prime minister, Kevin Rudd, said on Tuesday.

"What's important is that all people of good will around the world act in concert with our friends in the United States to see the right measures taken through the U.S. political process to stabilize the global financial system," he told a press conference.

And that's not all they are doing. They're pumping money like crazy into the system. Japan's central bank, to cite just one example, just made available in a record 28 billion dollars because its banks are refusing to lend money to "foreign" banks. South Korea has banned short selling in its markets, and Taiwan and Hong Kong are placing limits on short sellers in theirs. Despite these actions, many lenders are foundering, looking for any cash they can find.

In what some analysts have called Black September, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the nationalization of insurance giant AIG and demise of big banks like Washington Mutual have shattered institutions' confidence in dealing with each other. The strains have had a ripple affect in the commercial paper markets used by companies for short-term cash needs that threatens to cause a broader hit to economic activity. Banks have had a hard time coming up with the dollars they need to fund their positions and operations, leading to a rush for dollars wherever institutions can find them. [...]

The Federal Reserve more than doubled reciprocal swap lines with the European Central Bank and eight other central banks on Monday to $620 billion from $290 billion previously.

The actions by the central banks have left banks with more than they need. But many are still clinging to the funds.

"No one wants to lend at the moment because there's too much fear," said a senior money market trader at a European investment bank in Singapore. "Most banks are keeping a nice cash buffer for themselves at the moment."

This isn't a phony crisis, it's very real, and no one should be taking delight in seeing financial institutions fail, simply assuming that a few greedy speculators and gamblers are merely getting their just desserts, or that the free market is merely correcting itself. When financial collapses and panics occur, they might start with hurting lenders but they never stop there. One relevant historical period to consider is the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the so-called "Gilded Age" when lack of regulation of the markets led to speculative bubbles that periodically burst leading to a series of depressions that destroyed the livelihoods of millions of people in America.

(cont.)

The Great Depression of the 1930s was called "great" for a reason. It followed a long series of depressions which afflicted the American economy throughout the 19th century. [...]

Panic of 1873

* The investment firm of Jay Cooke and Company went bankrupt in September 1873 as a result of rampant speculation in railroads. The stock market dropped sharply and caused numerous businesses to fail.

* The depression caused approximately three million Americans to lose their jobs.

* The collapse in food prices impacted America's farm economy, causing great poverty in rural America.

* The depression lasted for five years, until 1878

. * The Panic of 1873 led to a populist movement that saw the creation of the Greenback Party.

Panic of 1893

* The depression set off by the Panic of 1893 was the greatest depression America had known, and was only surpassed by the Great Depression of the 1930s.

* In early May 1893 the New York stock market dropped sharply, and in late June panic selling caused the stock market to crash.

* A severe credit crisis resulted, and more than 16,000 businesses had failed by the end of 1893. Included in the failed businesses were 156 railroads and nearly 500 banks.

* Unemployment spread until one in six American men lost their jobs.

* The depression inspired "Coxey's Army," a march on Washington of unemployed men. The protesters demanded that the government provide public works jobs. Their leader, Jacob Coxey, was imprisoned for 20 days.

* The depression caused by the Panic of 1893 lasted for about four years, ending in 1897.

Sound familiar? While the current crisis does not the result from the exact same conditions that triggered these earlier "depressions" there are enough parallels to give one pause. Lack of regulation of financial and securities markets. Speculative bubbles that burst, financial firms collapsing, stock markets plummeting, and banks failing. And the end result? Millions of jobs lost and severe poverty for the little people (i.e., you and I). The major difference is the potential scale of this crisis, and the increased complexity of the financial markets in the 21st Century, but the underlying causes are remarkably the same.

Financial panics are not misnamed, nor is the term an oxymoron. They are at heart, an emotional reaction to market conditions. Markets, whatever economists might say, are not rational, at least not in the short term. And these periodic emotional frenzies in the markets, the irrational exuberance which creates speculative bubbles followed by the equally irrational fear which follows the collapse of those bubbles, have been well known to anyone who studies the history of our economy. What is surprising is that so many economists and business people believed that under our current global economic "free trade" regime we had transcended history, and that markets would now act, as they had never acted before, to self-regulate and self-stabilize themselves without government oversight. This misguided vision by these arguably intelligent, but still not completely rational, economic ideologues of the right, these cult followers of Ayn Rand and Milton Friedman, are responsible for what we see happening to our "global economy" as I literally type these words. Which is why during the Great Depression FDR and a Democratic controlled Congress created so many government agencies, and strengthened the powers of existing ones, in order to regulate financial institutions and permit the Federal Government to intervene in our financial markets during times when panic in the markets reared its crazy, ugly head. Those agencies and the control they imposed were not always employed to create optimal results, but the fact is that under the regulatory framework established by Roosevelt's "New Deal" we had an extended period of relative financial stability which lasted until Republicans began dismantling those controls during the Reagan years.

What we are seeing now is the inevitable result of that de-regulation agenda, one that has come to fruition under President Bush and the Republican Party, but for which many establishment Democrats, particularly President Clinton and other DLC Democrats who enabled the efforts of corporate lobbyists and the Republicans in Congress, bear responsibility as well. Over the long term we need to re-impose that regulatory framework that FDR created, and provide new oversight powers to the Federal agencies to meet the demands of the global financial marketplace. we also need to encourage a similar effort abroad in other major economic powers such as China, Russia, the Asian countries and the Economic Union.

Until that can be accomplished, however, we will remain at the mercy of the turbulent economic tides which these libertarian economists and their willing disciples, with their dreams of an unregulated "free" market have unleashed. Tides that are driven less by reason and logic and more by emotions such as greed and fear. To the extent we can take any responsible action in the short term to create a perception of stability and thus tamp down the fears that are raging through the brains of bankers and investors around the globe, we should do so. It might not be enough to prevent a lot of misery, but it might help limit the fallout until our political leaders can undertake the heavy lifting to right our economy which is so sorely needed, and which for so long they have actively shunned.



Display:

I can't say that I can blame the banks for deleveraging.  I have been doing it myself for a couple of years now, and now I have no debt.  No mortgage, no car loan, and no credit card debt that isn't paid off every month.

There is a dilemma here though.  The bailout bill that was just voted down was still a flawed bill.  Better than the original Paulson plan, but still highly flawed.  So the question is how best to proceed.

My guess is that they will take another crack at it later this week.  Whether or not anything passes or not remains to be seen..

by ericy on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 08:57:30 AM EST
If you read this article, it sounds like the GOP leadership refused to twist the arms of their members to get a deal done:

A dejected Boehner huddled with Hoyer, Blunt and Emanuel, who delivered a possible deal. If Blunt could round up a handful of GOP votes, Democrats could do the rest.

But Boehner couldn't find enough, and he said it wasn't his style to "break arms."



John McCain hates my wife because she's a "gook."

by Steven D on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 09:07:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Stock markets are looting corpses this morning, looking for deals.

But the LIBOR is still through the roof.  Banks aren't playing ball with each other.  It's an untenable situation.

The market is now pricing in the bailout being passed on Thursday.

More at Zandar vs. The Stupid.

by Zandar1 on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 10:24:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Admittedly, the Rescue Bill was flawed. But as the NYTimes suggests let's ask ourselves What's worse than a flawed bailout? - the failure of leadership

Some within this community suggest the economists should be consulted to write an alternative plan. Well, they should drop by The Financial Times where over 70 economists are contributors. There are multiple views. Two have alerted those of us who enjoy the failure of the Bailout Bill should prepare ourselves to enjoy the depression to follow:

People do not understand the seriousness of this crisis. There's a unique run on the bank in progress. Banks are running from each other. And the remaining goldens are in peril. It's also global.

Last night I was reluctant to link to this piece by Nouriel Roubini as you'll see why. But it's been made public. Roubini is one of two Economists who alerted in 2005 (on timeline basis) this crisis would play out starting in 2007-

The US and global financial crisis is becoming much more severe in spite of the Treasury rescue Plan. The risk of a total systemic meltodown is now as high as ever

selected excerpts

After the bust of Bear and Lehman and the merger of Merrill with BofA I suggested that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs should also merge with a large financial institution that has a large base of insured deposits so as to avoid a run on their overnite liabilities. Instead Morgan and Goldman went for the cosmetic approach of converting into bank holding companies as a way to get further liquidity support - and regulation as banks - of the Fed and as a way to acquire safe deposits. But neither institution can create in a short time a franchise of branches and neither one has the time and resources to acquire smaller banks. And the injection of $8 b of Japanese capital into Morgan and $5 b of capital from Buffett into Goldman is a drop in the ocean as both institutions need much more capital. Thus, the gambit of converting into bank while not being banks yet has not worked and the run against them has accelerated in the last week: Morgan's CDS spread went through the roof on Friday to over 1200 and the firm has already lost over a third of its hedge funds clients together with their highly profitable prime brokering business (this is really a kiss of death for Morgan); and the coming roll-off of the interbank lines to Morgan would seal its collapse. Even Goldman Sachs is under severe stress losing business, losing money, experiencing a severe widening of its CDS spreads and at risk of losing most of its values most of its lines of business (including trading) are now losing money.

Both institutions are highly recommended to stop dithering and playing for time as delay will be destructive: they should merge now with a large foreign financial institution as no US institution is sound enough and large enough to be a sound merger partner. If Mack and Blankfein don't want to end up like Fuld they should do today a Thain and merge as fast as they can with another large commercial banks. Maybe Mitsubishi and a bunch of Japanese life insurers can take over Morgan; in Europe Barclays has its share of capital trouble and has just swallowed part of Lehman; while most other UK banks are too weak to take over Goldman. The only institution sound enough to swallow Goldman may be HSBC. Or maybe Nomura in Japan should make a bid for Goldman. Either way Mack and Blankfein should sell at a major discount of current price their firm before they end up like Bear and be offered in a few weeks a couple of bucks a share for their faltering operation. And the Fed and Treasury should tell them to hurry up as they are both much bigger than Bear or Lehman and their collapse would have severe systemic effects.

When investors don't trust any more even venerable institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs you know that the financial crisis is as severe as ever and the fear of collapse of counterparties does not spare anyone.

[.]

The next step of this panic could become the mother of all bank runs, i.e. a run on the trillion dollar plus of the cross border short-term interbank liabilities of the US banking and financial system as foreign banks as starting to worry about the safety of their liquid exposures to US financial institutions; such a silent cross border bank run has already started as foreign banks are worried about the solvency of US banks and are starting to reduce their exposure. And if this run accelerates - as it may now - a total meltdown of the US financial system could occur.

[.]

Imho, The $700 billion requested will not be enough. How it's to be deployed is debatable. Small businesses' lines of credit, including business credit cards, have been notified these facility are impaired. Banks are out of their own credit lines with each other. What is little known is that banks maintain accounts with each other.

Pain will soon be observable.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 09:29:41 AM EST
You know, much of this is over my head. It's just hard to think that the people who have been accumulating a greater and greater share of the nation's wealth mostly through speculation and at times borderline criminal behavior while the rest of us have been suffering, will lead us out of this crisis that they created if we just give them more money with no strings attached is just hard to swallow.

I hate to paraphrase Darrell Issa, but why does the U.S. have to give more money to the players at the casino? Why not put more money into real banks who aren't into speculating? Why is buying speculators' bad paper good for the rest of us? How does creating a system where predatory lenders get rewarded while the common folk lose their houses make any sense?

By the way, years ago political researcher Dave Emory, conspiracy theorist if you will, claimed that there was a fifth column in the U.S., represented by the Bush family, which was working for the Germans to destroy the U.S. as a major power. As wacky as it sounded when I first heard it, I cannot think of any family that has done more to destroy America militarily, culturally and economically. After the dust settles the EU will be the primary beneficiary of this mess. Maybe it's just a coincidence.

Here's what they're saying in Berlin:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080925/ts_nm/us_financial_germany_steinbruecknews

by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 09:41:54 AM EST
They have a housing bubble and bank failures over in the U.K. as well.  Someone came up with these gems.  It is only slightly U.K.-centric - the humour in it is universal.

 The two are essentially the same - one is office-safe, the other one is decidedly not, but the foul language is only in the captions.  The audio is German..

Here is the one with the foul language:

And here is the cleaner one:

Someone with some time to kill could fix the captions to make them more fun for those of us over here.  I am thinking of McCain as the "star" of this instead of Bush - mainly because of his legendary temper.

by ericy on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 10:03:19 AM EST
What you are seeing is a true 'liquidity trap', which occur less frequently than a total eclipse of the sun.  The money the Fed and other central banks are pumping into the economy is simply being sucked into the black hole of cash hoards, and will stay there until the uncertainty about the economic future subsides.  This is exactly what John Maynard Keynes was writing about in his General Theory.  Those chapters, much misunderstood because they were excessively systematized, hold the keys to today's crisis.  The last such crisis was in Japan, and that one is a piker compared to what is going on right now.

Happy Great Depression, everyone.

Knut

by Knut Wicksell (b_didnn@hotmail.ca) on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 10:25:50 AM EST
Then why can't the U.S. act as banker to the public? You know, do mortgages, etc. If the banks just hold onto their money, then why not bypass them? Seems to me that a bank holding onto money that sees the U.S. getting business while they just sit on the sideline moldering away will quickly jump back into the water.

How about lowering the interest rates again? That makes holding onto money unprofitable?

And because all the "wealth" of property values has evaporated and the general public doesn't have that to finance big purchages, how about our next President make some fundamental changes in the economy, like boosting the power of Labor to enable people to negotiate decent wages where they can once again afford to buy things? And a health plan which gives wealth (in the form of lower healthcare costs) to everyone while disbursing the wealth from the healthcare business more evenly throughout the populace.

Why not? Because the richest sliver of people don't want to give up any of their booty. In an economy that requires people to buy things, people have to have money to buy things. The proximate cause of this current crisis is the loss of wealth from the property value balloon. But the greater problem began back during the Reagan years, as the balance of wealth began getting knocked out of whack.

Sure, deregulation allowed for the criminal class to foist their confiscatory mortgages on the working class. The reason why working class people were gambling on these balloon mortgages was because they were otherwise priced out of housing because their salaries were being depressed by Republican economic policies.

At some point if you rely on the bottom ninety percent of the people to buy things you've got to let them have money. Otherwise the whole thing shuts down and there's panic in the streets.

by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 11:02:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you think they would do something like that with AIG or Freddie and Fannie, if the banks won't lend, use one of those 3 institutions..and make a profit.

I don't want a tax cut, I want a job.
by americanforliberty on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 12:22:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"...At some point if you rely on the bottom ninety percent of the people to buy things you've got to let them have money. Otherwise the whole thing shuts down and there's panic in the streets...."

What the parasites forgot was that you have to allow at least enough nourishment to get to the host to keep it alive or you endanger even your own life.  The ultra-greedy always forget that lesson and they ultimately always rue the day.

by VizierVic (VizierVic@hotmail.com) on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 03:33:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the difference between a parasite and a virulent virus - the virus, left unchecked, will run rampant until it kills the host...

The Underground Railroad
by Oscar In Louisville on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 08:04:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I beg to differ with a poster above that "this isnt a phony crisis".  

I believe it is a phony "crisis" because no one has proven to me that it is a "real" crisis.

I have been inundated with "the sky is falling" from the Bush administration much in the same way we dealt with the "mushroom cloud crisis" of Sadaam Hussein, so why would I want to believe as Mike Whitney calls them "an ex Wall Street bankster" who tells me the economy will collapse and we will all be sorry if we dont give him unlimited power to "fix" the problem.

Well you first have to ask yourself do we have a problem?

Yes as Tom Hanks said in Apollo 13 "Houston we have a problem", or as any other competent leader would have said to his people "My fellow Americans we have a problem".

So how does a competent leader respond to a problem? You calmly inform the ppl of the problem and assure them that you are doing everything possible to resolve it and I will get back to you on how we are making progress.

Will the problem become a crisis? No not if clear heads prevail.

So, as we all know none of the above happened.

What really happened is the same thing that happened with the "problem" with Sadaam in the runup to the invasion of Iraq. The "problem" quickly turned into a "crisis". A lot of hysteria that there is a "mushroom cloud about to fall out of the sky" was spewed out from our leaders whom we than trustingly gave blanket authority and a blank check to "solve" the crisis.

And as they say the rest is history.

So children have we learned a lesson from this?

Methinks not for you are all about to repeat the same mistake again so if you think I am wrong then go ahead and give Paulson and Der Leader everything they want and guess what history will say?

They fooled the ppl yet again but for me I will end my rant with paraphrase of the old quote......

FOOL US ONCE...

SHAME ON YOU..

FOOL US TWICE...

SHAME ON US

 

by keyman12 on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 01:47:07 PM EST
Keyman, as much as I hate to say it, this truly is a crisis at this point.  The proof of the crisis is in the jump that LIBOR, the interest rate which banks charge one another, saw overnight.  Usually, LIBOR trades maybe a half percentage point above the rate the Fed makes funds available to member banks.  Yesterday, it had drifted to a full percentage point higher.  Today, it had jumped to 5 full percentage points higher.  Banks and corporations aren't lending money to even their best colleagues, clients or customers.  

The Bush administration isn't making this one up.  That jump stems from the thousand of decisions being made by the various bank traders around the globe.  The credit market is dying without something to jump-start confidence in the ability of banks, corporations and individuals to borrow and repay loans.  The real market won't die quickly, but without the circulatory system of the credit market to keep it alive, even the real market will die, with lots of commercial gangrene along the way.

Is this the best possible legislation?  No, I don't think so, but it might be the best that can be implemented at this time.  This truly is a case in which doing nothing is the wrong option, unless one is a nihilist or Trotskyite who wants to bring down the whole system.

by VizierVic (VizierVic@hotmail.com) on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 03:28:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My remarks are somewhat tongue in check as you will note I did said there is a problem, but it only became a crisis after the Bush officials said it was one.  Now whether it was a conspiracy or not we will never know, but if clearer heads prevailed then the thousands of traders around the world would use some common sense stop trading until things settled down and then and only then maybe the heads of all the Central banks around the world could get together to figure out how to proceed. In other words panic breeds panic breeds more panic breeds more bad decisions which breeds more panic etc.

If you are trying to save a drowning man the first thing you have to do unless you want to be drowned yourself is to calm him so you can rescue him.  

When Paulson, et al finally realized what Mike Whitney and others having been saying would happen indeed was just over the horizon they should have devised a public relations strategy to prepare the public of what the believed was a "crisis" and then presented it in a way to keep people calm.

They didnt and we have the mess we have today which will still be a mess no matter how much money we put into it or when. We are following old the adage that says when you have a problem throw some money at it.

The bottom line is simply...there is NO WAY out of this mess.

This is like ignoring that the fact that a dam is going to break and failing to get out of the way before it does. Then as you are being swept downstream after it breaks you look to the shore to see if someone is going to throw you a life line.

This phoney bailout is not even a life line since no on has even the foggiest idea whether it will work because it is unprecedented in he history of mankind.

The simple truth is that it is too little too late and a lot of people will be hurt and lose their life savings etc because of the greed of a few.

So anything is better than nothing? In this case I dont think so.

Sometimes in life you simply have to as they say cut your losses and get out while you can or get all you can, can all you get bury the can in the back yard and sit on the can (not the crapper LOL)

 

by keyman12 on Tue Sep 30th, 2008 at 04:23:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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