Booman Tribune

Reading the Tea Leaves

by BooMan
Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 12:23:18 AM EST

On July 20th, I was on a conference call with the president that I described here. Fortunately, Ezra Klein produced a transcript so that you don't have to take my word for what the president said.

The House bills and the Senate bills will not be identical. We know this. The politics are different, because the makeup of the Senate and the House are different and they operate on different rules. I am not interested in making the best the enemy of the good. There will be a conference committee where the House and Senate bills will be reconciled, and that will be a tough, lengthy and serious negotiation process.

I am less interested in making sure there's a litmus test of perfection on every committee than I am in going ahead and getting a bill off the floor of the House and off the floor of the Senate. Eighty percent of those two bills will overlap. There's going to be 20 percent that will be different in terms of how it will be funded, its approach to the public plan, its pay-or-play provisions. We shouldn't automatically assume that if any of the bills coming out of the committees don't meet our test, that there is a betrayal or failure. I think it's an honest process of trying to reconcile a lot of different interests in a very big bill.

Conference is where these differences will get ironed out. And that's where my bottom lines will remain: Does this bill cover all Americans? Does it drive down costs both in the public sector and the private sector over the long-term. Does it improve quality? Does it emphasize prevention and wellness? Does it have a serious package of insurance reforms so people aren't losing health care over a preexisting condition? Does it have a serious public option in place? Those are the kind of benchmarks I'll be using. But I'm not assuming either the House and Senate bills will match up perfectly with where I want to end up. But I am going to be insisting we get something done.

Here's my paraphrase:

In the end, Obama made an observation that I have made many times before. The House is going to introduce several different bills from different committees (Health & Education, Energy & Commerce, and Way & Means) and so is the Senate (HELP & Finance). All of those bills will eventually be combined into one, so it doesn't matter tremendously if one of them lacks the public option. The whole thing is going to go down after the House and Senate have each passed their bills, when those bills have to be reconciled in a Conference Committee. It is the Conference Committee that will produce the final product. What Obama wants right now is for the House and Senate to each pass a single bill before they go into the August recess. That will be the completion of the first step.

When they come back in September, they will have the vote on the reconciled bill. If the Dems can get 60 votes in the Senate, then Obama will sign it, and it will become law. If the Dems can't get 60 votes in the Senate by October 15th, then they will revert to the budget reconciliation process that only requires fifty votes. The latter process is inferior for a variety or reasons that I will not go into right now, but it can get the job done if it becomes necessary.

The bit about using reconciliation was gleaned from the president's response to a question from Jonathan Singer of MyDD.

Unfortunately, the president's message wasn't absorbed by many of the people on that call. As it turned out, the Finance Committee stalled in July and could not report out a bill before the August recess. Honestly, the president made it plain that he didn't give a shit what was in the Finance bill just so long as it finished its work so the process could move to the next step (where we are now). That's what I reported to you at the time and have been reporting ever since.

I didn't spend a lot of time on the intertubes today, but it was clearly a day when the leaks were flying and everyone was trying to read the tea leaves.

Let me tell you something. If Harry Reid went up to the White House with a plan to pass a public option and the president did not like the plan, you never would have heard about it. Reid never would have taken the step to float putting the public option in the base bill if he didn't already have a green light from the White House. The truth is that the administration never believed they could pass a public option through the Senate on the first pass. That was what Obama was telling us on that conference call back in July. But things changed when Kirk replaced Kennedy and Byrd regained his health. We have 60 senators now, and if Reid thinks he can get 60 votes for cloture that changes the plan.

The original plan assumed that the Senate would fail to pass any bill, and was based on making sure all the blame for that fell on obstructionist Republicans. Then they would go to the budget reconciliation process. However, with 60 senators it's impossible to put all the blame on Republicans if the bill stalls in the Senate. Now it is worthwhile to cut a deal. But it has to be a deal that gets the president what he said he wanted all along. He never cared about the details so long as he could get what he wants in the Conference Committee. So why do we have to freak out everytime someone leaks something that sounds an off note?



Display:
Thank you, AHIP, for rescuing the public option.


Washington Post tells readers, "Prognosis improves for public insurance; Momentum shift is dramatic." It seems like "dramatic" is the right word, given that the public option seemed like quite a long-shot up until quite recently.

And what's behind the "momentum shift"? It seems, this week, a key turning point was Wednesday's meeting between Reid, Baucus, Dodd, and White House officials, when the leadership reportedly decided to go ahead and pursue a public option.

But let's not overlook the role of America's Health Insurance Plans (AHIP). The insurance lobby published a deceptive report on health care premiums two weeks ago, and the WaPo report today suggests it quickly changed the policy landscape.



Reid's original inclination was to leave the public option out of a final bill he is writing from measures passed by the finance and health committees. But his liberal colleagues began urging him two weeks ago to reconsider, after insurance industry forecasts that premiums would rise sharply under the Finance Committee bill, which lacked a public option. The report had the effect of prodding Democrats to look for better ways to control costs, and the public option -- strongly opposed by the insurance industry -- reemerged as a possible solution.

Because a government-run plan would be dedicated to holding down costs and would lack a profit motive, congressional budget analysts predict that it could reduce the cost of expanding coverage to people who don't have it by as much as $100 billion over the next decade.


by Destiny on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 11:06:22 AM EST
The reason I myself freak out is because so far, since Obama has been president, everything he's done has been badly watered down - giving too much to the corporations and falling short of the dramatic change that each situation has called for.

If it weren't for the multiple despicable moves by Geithner, Holder, and Emanuel, the inadequate stimulus, the corruption in the bailouts, etc. etc. etc. I wouldn't be so edgy about healthcare.

Everything depends on this bill being strong - the future of the progressive movement, the future of my own personal health and finances, the 2010 and 2012 elections, etc.

I have no confidence in the current leadership. To put it another way I am 100% confident that Emanuel and at least half of the democratic senators are crooks who are battling daily to make my life and my country worse.

by obsessed on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 03:15:21 AM EST
.
Industrial Revolution and Sheffield, England

The village of Sheffield dates back to before the beginning of the last millennium. It grew around a fortified building (later a castle) located at the confluence of the rivers Sheaf and Don. A number of hamlets and villages grew up in the surrounding area, many around the fledgling industries that utilised the area's five fast flowing rivers, along with locally mined coal and iron.


River Sheaf in Highfield, flowing between
Victorian factories.
(Wikipedia)

The villages steadily grew around this industry. By the 18th century Sheffield had become a thriving market town and was already the country's leading cutlery producer.

What to expect from today's crooks (pure form of capitalism) based on self-interest. Eisenhower warned for the military-industrial complex. Since we have seen the creation of health and drugs complex, and many other monopolies by argument of resizing companies to fit globalism. Thanks to the permanent state of war in the US after World War II, the economic growth has multiplied fortunes of the wealthy. Correction to labor rights and income through high inflation of the seventies, unemployment of the eighties, union opposition by Reagan, unwinding government corporate regulations of the nineties and sending our sons and daughters to fight the endless war on terror in Bush's decade. The spending spree initiated by the Iraq War knows no boundaries. The US is in peril on health care and social security.

Capitalism has exploited

  • raw materials
  • labor rights
  • social infrastructure
  • community responsibility
    ... and given in return
  • poor health
  • pollution
    ... and in the end
  • transfer of jobs to low-income countries where the cycle starts all over.

    "But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

  • by Oui on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 05:43:30 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Eisenhower -- still a very underrated president, in my opinion.

    Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.
    by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 09:09:54 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    it's a complex, multi-faceted situation of entrenched interests. I'm not one for abstraction (e.g. that it's the fault of capitalism) since the issues are so complex. but for that reason not to underestimate the pushback vs. change. imo items must be addressed one by one in their specificity, and change requires patience and participation of many.

    Viva Obama
    by Errol on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 11:35:44 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    .
    A concerted effort for major change is needed. Old Europe seems to have transformed through the Enlightenment, Industrial Revolution, 2 major World Wars, communism, socialism to a regulated capitalistic economy showing a social responsibility. Look at the more recent change and development in Russia, it's satellite states, Southeast Asia and China.

    The manifestation of the European Union of 27 countries is a mighty feat that took nearly sixty years.

    However, if you don't recognize there is a major structural problem in the US, change will be too little and too late. It requires a major sustained effort of all parties involved and decision making. A two party system of Republicans and Democrats does not seem to provide advancement. It's more like the pendulum of a giant clock swinging back and forth, while time is ticking away at decades of political stalemate. The effort of the Obama administration is colossal, don't expect the change in two terms of office. He could only offer a change in direction, which would be huge by itself.

    The fall of the Berlin wall two decades ago gave Eastern Europe its freedom and chance to recover. The US in pursuit of globalism and more personal wealth forgot its domestic priorities of providing jobs, income, health care, social security, infrastructure of roads, bridges and mass transportation. Private corporations and states alone cannot meet the challenge. Look at green energy as another example, Europe leads and the US is nowhere to be seen. The Bush administration preferred the bible text above modern science. The fundamentals of the Republicans won't change.

  • The EU at a glance and the founding fathers.

    "But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

  • by Oui on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 12:22:44 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    we're in the midst of a concerted effort for major change - and imo sane people recognize that it's a major structural problem in the usa.  hence there are no quick fixes to the dismay of many. disagreement is on how best to proceed, not on what the problems are. I completely support Obama, who is, so far successfully imo, avoiding the errors of JFK (being too upfront about what he is doing and not living to tell the tale) and Clinton (too timid and lacking in the altruism to go all out).

    Viva Obama
    by Errol on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 01:17:50 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Did you yell at your parents on Thanksgiving when you didn't receive your Christmas presents?  When they told you that they hadn't even shopped for them yet?  

    There is a line between policy criticism and personal criticism that is being crossed by a lot of people.  

    And then there is another thing that gets me.  This idea that Obama is breaking a transparency promise.  Perhaps he is, but any fair and honest person who understands congressional process would know that you can't facilitate the process by telling everyone what your bottom line is up front.  If you are going to have to settle for less than for your bottom line at points in the process, you have to just go with the flow until the time comes to ask for what you want.  In the meantime, you only have to keep the parameters within close enough proximity to your goal that the thing doesn't go off the rails.

    by BooMan on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 10:26:28 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    I read you every day and I rec'd today's DKos diary.

    And I hope you're right, but I have to ask you: of the issues on which we've already trusted Obama as you counsel we should trust him now, are you really satisfied?

    -torture?
    -cuba travel?
    -TARP?
    -extent of stimulus?
    -wall st. reform?

    What would you use as an argument against the notion that the Obama Administration is working behind the scenes to help corporations continue to destroy the middle class?

    by obsessed on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 03:18:47 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    I think you have the right approach. Patience may be the best way to handle what will be a very difficult compromise. However,I'm sure that the Insurance industry is in a near panic and will be dropping some bombs concerning the what ifs about the public option.
    by donmyers on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 03:40:14 AM EST
    is leading the charge:

    Prognosis improves for public insurance
    MOMENTUM SHIFT IS DRAMATIC Top Democrats push option in health-care legislation

    By Shailagh Murray and Lori Montgomery
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Saturday, October 24, 2009
    Democratic leaders in the Senate and House have concluded that a government-run insurance plan is the cheapest way to expand health coverage, and they sought Friday to rally support for the idea, prospects for which have gone in a few short weeks from bleak to bright.

    The shift in momentum is so dramatic that many lawmakers now predict that President Obama will sign a final bill that includes some form of government-sponsored insurance for people who do not receive coverage through the workplace. Even Democrats with strong reservations about expanding government's role in the health-care system say they are reconsidering the approach in hopes of making low-cost plans broadly available.

     Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) and  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) sought support Friday for expansive versions of the public option as they prepared to send reform legislation to the Senate and House floors. Their goal is to pass bills with similar versions of the public insurance option so that final talks between the two chambers can focus on other issues that could prove more difficult to resolve.

    Snip:

    "He's knows what he's doing is a gamble," Reid spokesman Jim Manley said. "But more and more, he's convinced it's the right thing to do."

    Reid's calculation is that it could be more difficult to add a public option through amendments on the Senate floor than to include it in the bill and force opponents to try to find the votes to strip it out. Manley said Reid would spend the weekend canvassing Democrats on the opt-out idea and would probably decide Monday whether to include it in the Senate bill.

    The Democratic leader pitched the opt-out idea to Obama at a White House meeting Thursday night and received a noncommittal response. Several senior Democratic sources said Obama is wary about alienating Snowe -- the only Republican so far to support a Democratic health-care measure -- and had already concluded that her plan for a "trigger" that would create a public option if private insurers don't offer affordable rates represented a satisfactory compromise.

    Fuck the "compromise". Make Snowe vote to reject a meaningful reform and let's see how the Mainers like it.

    A "noncommittal response"?

    If Obama doesn't want to lead he should get out of the way.

    by Ed J on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 10:21:28 AM EST
    A benefit of the way things have played out: insurance cos were lulled into complacency, thinking the admin was not pushing the PO and the senate didn't have the votes for it. Now they're scrambling and their pressure is heavy handed, obvious, and hurting them.

    Viva Obama
    by Errol on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 11:27:45 AM EST
    "why do we have to freak out everytime someone leaks something that sounds an off note?"

    Well, if you ignore all of those who never really liked Obama, but pretended to for a short while, you'll see there's not that much freaking out.

    :)

    by sherifffruitfly on Sat Oct 24th, 2009 at 03:26:20 PM EST


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