To whatever extent the poll reflects reality, I think indicates something that is obvious to us all: the more Democrats act like republicans, the less the public likes Democrats.

"Rarely do we see any analysis of what is causing this erosion in support."

I can't speak for everyone in the party, and pardon me for sounding like a broken record, but i will give you my point of view as someone who has voted for the democrats in every election except one (clinton, second term).

i am seeing a Party that isn't leading. I'm watching decades of promises about health care become one watered down compromise after another.  that makes me feel like i was lied to. when i get emails from OFA telling me to say "thank you to Jim Cooper", i feel like party doesn't really understand.

I'm seeing bailouts of big banks, and very little for main street. In fact, i watched congress shrink the stimulus (and wasn't that supposed to be for us regular people) while there seemed to be nothing the banks wanted that was too much. That makes me feel like corporations are more important than my community.

Not everyone pays attention to the civil liberties stuff, and maybe that's my bete noir, but I'm not seeing the restoration of the rule of law that was such a prominent feature of the campaign. That makes me feel like the Democratic Party maybe isn't that concerned with freedom and liberty.

I could go on, but you get the gist.  Meanwhile, you have the Republican rump and their enablers making a big show of protesting all this "government over-reach", in effect riling up the independents the way Obama did in 2008.

I'm as happy as anyone that grampa and the crazy lady didn't win, but I am damn disappointed that that seems to be all my vote accomplished.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??

Economic downturns trump everything else, and the party in control earns the lion's share of the blame. There also should be a rebound effect, which normally afflicts the party in power. And I expect that Republican obstructionism has dragged the Democrats down, much as negative campaigning does, and this hurts both parties although it hurts the Democrats more by 'evening' the results.

I don't know what to make of Gallup's results. I strongly suspect they're an outlier, and Gallup has come under criticism for methodological problems in recent times.

Even though I don't discount the idea of some movement, a large portion of these results is the result of likely voter models. Obama's 2008 victory was partly attributable to high turnout, which means that polling done under likely voter models had him doing worse. The 2008 results were as much about the intensity of support for Obama and the weakness of support for McCain as the capturing of support from members of the Republican coalition.

The current political climate is not going to be favorable to the party in charge, and results are going to be depressed overall. Any candidate who does not attend to bread & butter + local issues is going to suffer at the polls. What was missed about the VA & NJ gubernatorial results was how little tolerance voters have at this point for inattention to problems at home. And this often exhibits itself as an anti-incumbent vote, which is subtly different that blaming the party in control. Voters will punish an emphasis on ideology if it's seen as inattention to pragmatic concerns.

As you put, the problem is there are more conservatives than liberals, and always has been and there are very few ways to bring them over. Independents are generally leaners though, so a base mobilization combined with the political suicide of republicans might work.

________
The Raptor of Spain: A Webserial
From Muslim Prince to Christian King: An Alternate History

I believe the one issue most responsible for this situation is the economy, and in particular, the way the administration is handling -- or not handling -- the banks. Here's my theory: of course Obama understands the political negatives, but, as with the military, he simply can't fight the banks head on. He's stuck with Geithner and Summers for the time being. He evidently decided a long time ago that he'd have to build up his political capital to the max, by proceeding to the largest possible successful outcomes along the paths of relatively least resistance. (It's sobering to think that health care reform is a walk in the park compared with bank reform and reform of military policy.) He'll go after the tougher nuts if and only if he has increased his grip. Otherwise -- it's just not possible, so why kill your existing political capital? I see the steady hand of a realist in all this. I wish more on the Left would realize, it's not a question of what he wants to do, but of what he CAN do and exactly how he can do it. And this being the situation, the Dems in Congress -- all of them -- need to support him. That's why I'm a little more optimistic about HCR than you seem to be lately.

If the poll screened for "likely voters", I think there are lot of Democrats right now who would say they are not likely to vote in 2010.

And the reason is the betrayal in Congress of the Democratic platform, up to and including the Stupak-Pitts amendment to an anemic House healthcare reform bill.

And in my conversations locally, it is not just the netroots Dems who feel this way.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

What's driving the polls?!  You can't be serious?!  As a Democrat, (or someone who votes Democrat because of an untenable alternative) when I saw the new generic congressional Gallup poll I was shocked--that the gap wasn't larger. As fair as the 'do nothing' charge against the GOP is and as crazy and racist as the teabaggers are, Independents are increasingly supportive and appreciative of them for focusing on issues that most Americans care about RIGHT NOW: Jobs and the Economy. Even if it is just lip service.

With a 10.2 unemployment rate what has the majority Party impassioned? Abortion, Gay Marriage and the Public Option! As recipes for disasters go, that's on par with giving Al Qaeda keys and the code to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. If asked, IF ASKED, most Americans or a plurality support reproductive choice (in the first trimester at least), Gay rights (short of marriage) and the public option (as an option), but they are NOT issues that are keeping Americans up at night. They are not issues defining the quality of lives for most Americans right now. Instead of focusing on jobs and the economy (and getting health care passed and off the table to focus on jobs and the economy), Democrats are self-destructing over issues that most Americans don't give a damn about right now!

While parents are struggling to house, feed and cloth their living and breathing kids, "progressives" have been apoplectic for almost a week about an abortion funding amendment in a health care bill that will NOT limit access to abortion and has little to NO chance of surviving in the Senate.  At least the manufactured outrage over the public option can be somewhat defended because the overarching goal, shared by most Americans, is to end the immorality and unamericaness of millions of uninsured Americans.   But abortion?! Gay marriage?!  Right now?!

That gap should be bigger!

Simple. Democrats suck at the moment.

caving in on hcr
handing out zillions to banksters
forclosures still happening
no jobs and nothing on the table much to get any
middle class is sinking into poverty
Blue Dogs
680B for more war (we didn't see the Blue Dogs raise hell about that little expenditure)
a weak WH
credit card "bill" that did NOTHING for consumers
Senate sucks, Reid in particular
huge anger at Wall St. and Obama still handling them with kid gloves
Pelosi even allowing Stupak amendment to come on the floor for vote
economy

It appears to many that even with majorities and the WH democrats STILL continue to cave into the rethugs and can't get anything accomplished for we the people.

I was thinking about this issue last night and today, and one thought was that it's a lot easier to say 'throw the bastards out' when you're a year away from actually having to pull the trigger and you're comparing a known entity vs a generic candidate.

In addition, most of these polls are pre-House vote on Health Care Reform.  (Even Gallups captured only one day after the 11:00 PM Sat Night passage of HCR bill by House).

What is driving the polls? Aside of course from those that are rigged in favor of one or another viewpoint...which is the majority of them, truth be told. Find out who their owners/supporters/controllers are and you will then know what each poll is supposed to...subtly...tell the great unwashed masses who believe them.

That said?

Even the subtlest and most crafty group of  poll-pushers cannot totally disguise a sea change in public opinion.

And here it is.

Again.

The beginnings of (yet another) "Throw the bums out" movement.

Why?

The real reason?

Because the problems that are facing America are largely unsolvable unless truly drastic actions are taken, and if a politician were to actually seriously considers the taking such drastic actions...all of which would threaten the ruling PermaGov...then the PermaGov's wholly-owned media would take care of said politician within a period of several months.

Bet on it.

Career over, back in the "I wish" blogs w/the rest of us.

Catch 21 (21st Century), over and out.

So...given the plain fact that unless the entire corporate structure of the US is razed from the top down and the entire foreign policy system that has been supporting that corporate structure with both overt and covert wars of economic imperialism for well over 60 years is turned back around on itself, there will be no real "change" in how things are operating here. End of story. Cosmetic changes will work short term...as have those put into place by the Obama administration in the financial area due to the necessities of sheer emergency...but two months, six months, a year after the cosmetics are applied the veneer of the new will wear off and the same nasty old cannibalistic hag of a system will start to become visible once again.

Witness this little piece of info, among literally thousands of others:

Of Bailouts and Swaps

The Crafting of a Loophole

By ANDREW COCKBURN

Those who respect the law and love sausage should watch neither being made.

--Mark Twain.      

AMENDMENT TO THE PETERSON SUBSTITUTE FOR H.R. 3795 (a) OFFERED BY MR. PETERSON OF MINNESOTA (b) Page 21, after line 25, insert the following:

(19) by adding at the end the following:

``(50) ALTERNATIVESWAP EXECUTIONFACILITY. (c).--The term `alternative swap execution facility' means a service that facilitates (d) the execution ortrading of swaps between two persons through any means of interstate commerce, but which is not a designated contract market (e), including any electronic trade execution or confirmation facility (f) or any voice brokerage facility (g).''

Now let's see what went into this legislative sausage.

(a) Everyone agrees that the unregulated "dark markets" of  Wall Street's trading in over-the-counter derivatives such as credit default swaps moved the financial crisis from major problem to total disaster.  Currently, most trades in these "products" are privately negotiated on the phone, dealer to dealer.  It's appallingly risky - that's why we have a multi-trillion dollar  bailout.  But because the dealers at major banks can quote different prices to different customers, with huge spreads between buy and sell quotes, the banks are making huge profits and want to keep it that way.

So while congress is busy working on reform legislation, Wall Street's  lawyer-lobbyists in Washington are working hard to neutralize such efforts.

Who's winning?  Over lunch across town from Capitol Hill,  I recently asked that question of a very smart attorney endowed with deep experience in keeping Washington safe for Wall Street.  In answer, he pointed to this seven-line paragraph buried in a 26-page amendment to "HR 3795, Over-The-Counter Derivatives Markets Act of 2009," passed in a voice vote by the House Agriculture Committee the night before. Following the vote, the committee had issued a press release hailing their vote for  "strengthening" regulation.

On the contrary, said my friend, "I guarantee you that not a single member, and almost certainly no one else, apart from the traders on Wall Street and the lobbyist who inserted it on their behalf,  understood the significance of this paragraph.  It means that nothing will change."

---snip---

There's more.

Read it and weep.

Same ol' same ol'.

New front.

But...no matter how TV/Culture/News hypnomediaed-out the slithy majority may be, they do get the drift eventually.

How?

Their wallets tell 'em.

If there is no way that an administration can change things on a basic level here without:

1-At least temporarily ruining the so-called "economy".

and/or

2-Being run out of town an a corporate-sponsored media rail before any real effects begin to appear.

Then there will be no change.

And if there is no change then the sleeping toves will vote da bums out.

Back and forth, back and forth from RatPub to DemRat, DemRat to RatPub until the entire system collapses of its own internal rot.

Watch.

I am.

I wish that I could do more.

But when the so-called best of the best believe what they are told by such entities as ABC News?

I can only watch.

And wonder.

Have fun...

AG

P.S. I am headed for Turkey, Croatia, Bulgaria and Hungary in early December. Why? Because as one wiseguy told me recently "Dey got da money now an' we don't."

Hmmmmmm...

Simple, eh?

Hmmmmmm...

Wish me luck.

I'm gonna need it.

So are we all.

Bet on it.

Goodness had nothing to do with it, dearie.-Mae West

"It's the economy, stupid".

Nothing over rides a persons worry about a paycheck, NOTHING. The incumbents always get blamed for a bad economy, ALWAYS.

There is one glimmer of hope for the Democratic Party, and that is for the Republicans to nominate a bunch or wackos for office. IMO that is the ONLY way the Democrats don't lose the house. And if they lose the house the immediate result will be that the Republicans and the media will call it a referendum on impeaching Obama. And he WILL be impeached. The Republicans play for keeps, the Democrats just play.

When any 'type' of person only goes amongst people like themselves, they get deluded into believing everyone is like them, not just those they hang with. The fact is most American's don't really care all that much about gay rights, or even abortion. They pay very little attention to the on going madness in Washington, no matter what the subject.

THEY CARE ABOUT THEIR PAYCHECK.

That is all.

nalbar