Booman Tribune

Deep Thought

by Steven D
Mon May 4th, 2009 at 07:12:30 AM EST

There is nothing to worry about regarding Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Pakistani militants. Nothing you hear me!

[T]he United States does not know where all of Pakistan’s nuclear sites are located, and its concerns have intensified in the last two weeks since the Taliban entered Buner, a district 60 miles from the capital. The spread of the insurgency has left American officials less willing to accept blanket assurances from Pakistan that the weapons are safe.

Pakistani officials have continued to deflect American requests for more details about the location and security of the country’s nuclear sites, the officials said.

Some of the Pakistani reluctance, they said, stemmed from longstanding concern that the United States might be tempted to seize or destroy Pakistan’s arsenal if the insurgency appeared about to engulf areas near Pakistan’s nuclear sites. But they said the most senior American and Pakistani officials had not yet engaged on the issue, a process that may begin this week, with President Asif Ali Zardari scheduled to visit Mr. Obama in Washington on Wednesday.

“We are largely relying on assurances, the same assurances we have been hearing for years,” said one senior official who was involved in the dialogue with Pakistan during the Bush years, and remains involved today. “The worse things get, the more strongly they hew to the line, ‘Don’t worry, we’ve got it under control.’ ” [...]

But that cooperation, according to officials who would not speak for attribution because of the sensitivity surrounding the exchanges between Washington and Islamabad, has been sharply limited when the subject has turned to the vulnerabilities in the Pakistani nuclear infrastructure. The Obama administration inherited from President Bush a multiyear, $100 million secret American program to help Pakistan build stronger physical protections around some of those facilities, and to train Pakistanis in nuclear security.

But much of that effort has now petered out, and American officials have never been permitted to see how much of the money was spent, the facilities where the weapons are kept or even a tally of how many Pakistan has produced. The facility Pakistan was supposed to build to conduct its own training exercises is running years behind schedule.

[President] Zardari heads the country’s National Command Authority, the mix of political, military and intelligence leaders responsible for its arsenal of 60 to 100 nuclear weapons. But in reality, his command and control over the weapons are considered tenuous at best; that power lies primarily in the hands of the army chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the former director of Inter-Services Intelligence, the country’s intelligence agency.

That sure gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling. How about you? I guess ignorance is bliss. Just ask all those people who were riding the real estate bubble to vast, unstoppable riches. I bet they felt a whole lot better before they discovered that all their investments were artificially inflated by the big shit pile and the Federal Reserve money tree. So, I think we should keep taking those assurances from Pakistani officials at face value. I mean, what's the worst that could happen?



Display:
The "untold" story here is nuke tech/components may have been given to Pakistan during the first bush administration- total violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act.

used to be info out there on this on the web, but "oddly" it;s not there anymore.

by Superpole on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 08:19:47 AM EST
Very True.  I wrote a diary several years ago about this very point, that it was the Reagan and Bush I administrations that gave Pakistan the means to build its bomb.

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt
by Steven D on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 08:31:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
.
This is an old comment of mine, I'm not sure all links still work. Support of Pakistan during the cold war to offset Soviet support of India. Note today that Australia wants to police Asia to counter the China threat with a large investment in miltary gear.

Nuclear Spy AQ Khan - CIA/America Refused Arrest in 1975 & 1985

The former Dutch Prime Minister, Ruud Lubbers, revealed in early August 2005 that the Netherlands knew of Dr. A.Q. Khan stealing nuclear secrets but let him go on two occasions after the CIA expressed their wish to continue monitoring his movements. [2]

Lubbers: CIA asked Netherlands not to arrest Pakistani nuclear spy

AMSTERDAM (RNW) -- Aug. 9, 2005 Mr Lubbers' revelations are highly embarrassing for the current Dutch government, which said earlier this year that there was no evidence of the CIA having played any role in the decision by the Dutch public prosecution service not to bring new charges against Mr Khan. Current Justice Minister Piet Hein Donner said that when AQ Khan twice visited the Netherlands in 1988, there were no longer any grounds to detain him because the criminal case against him had already been closed. [AQ Khan dossier missing - Oui]

The disclosures are also embarrassing for the CIA. It's not unusual for an espionage or terrorism suspect to be allowed to remain at large so that, for example, his conversations and communications can be monitored and his network of contacts traced, but if that did indeed happen in the case of AQ Khan, then it did not produce any useful results. Indeed, the knowledge he obtained led to the development of Pakistan's nuclear bomb and that knowledge - together with materials - was later passed on to other countries, including North Korea, Iran and Libya.


Ruud Lubbers new job at ECN  

Dutchman jailed for selling nuke parts to Pakistan

AMSTERDAM (Pakistan Facts) Dec. 18, 2005 -- Slebos' company, Slebos Research BV, sold the equipment to the Institute of Industrial Automation in Pakistan, which has links with the research laboratories of scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, dubbed the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb.

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

by Oui on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 08:31:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
1975 - Kissinger at State; Schlesinger and Rumsfeld at Defense
1985 - Schultz at State; Weinberger at Defense

Check. It figures.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 10:55:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep. I think the reluctance to arrest/prosecute Khan is the rather large smoking gun.. indicates the U.S. was likely involved in the transference of nuke tech/components to Pakistan... again, in violation of the Non Proliferation Act.

I'm guessing Sam Nunn is a bit upset about this.

by Superpole on Tue May 5th, 2009 at 09:19:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So do I get this right then: bleeding heart librul wants his college-town comfort-zone maintained and is thus demanding application of the Bush doctrine to Pakistan, a country he clearly knows absolutely nothing about. Is that right? And stupid me thought we just had eight years of this shit and had moved past it ...
by Guthman on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 07:55:10 AM EST
What is the Bush Doctrine with respect to Pakistan?  It seems to me that it was "here take our billions for your military and pretend you're with us on the war on terror business."

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt
by Steven D on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 08:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Bush Doctrine (soon the Bushama doctrine?) with respect to Pakistan is the ever same thing: American Exceptionalism + "sovereignty is for those who can defend it." If Dick Cheney were to read your post he would laugh out loud and rightly so.
 
by Guthman on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 08:36:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Cheny had no interest in Pakistan for the simple reason that they had no oil.  That was why Cheny push for an invasion of Iraq and later Iran.

As for the Obama policies being a continuation of the Bush policies, I think engagement with the regime is vastly different than benign neglect and support for a dictator.

I also believe you are assuming I support a military intervention in Pakistan.  I do not.  But if Islamic militants gain control over Pakistan's nuclear weaponry or materials we are very screwed.  At that point Inida might very well launch a first strike.

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

by Steven D on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 08:45:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well what was your post about then? "Engaging" in itself is diplo-speak i.e. a deliberately empty phrase. Besides rumors are flying that the Obama administration wants a new military dictatorship in Pakistan and is pushing the "militants getting their hands on nukes" meme for that reason. So you may well get your wish plus you'll get to wash your hands of it.
by Guthman on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 08:58:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The point of the post was obvious.  Pakistan is a powderkeg waiting to explode and its going to take more than luck or wishful thinking to avoid what many see as a looming catastrophe.  I'm not sure what is the point of your objections to the post.  That it is about Pakistan?  That it paints Pakistan as a country in a dangerous and unstable political condition, which instability threatens the prospects for peace in the region and which pose a threat to the security of its nuclear armed neighbor, India as well as a possible security risk to the United States?  What exactly is so bothersome to you about pointing out these concerns?  The fact is that many, many experts have been warning about the situation in Pakistan, and to pretend the problem doesn't exist is beyond foolish in my humble opinion.

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt
by Steven D on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 09:10:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I understand that it's very important not to get one's hands dirty. So pray tell us: what exactly is "it's going to take more than luck or wishful thinking to avoid what many see as a looming catastrophe" supposed to mean? Stop dealing in opaque euphemisms and get real with your arguments.
by Guthman on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 09:21:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I see.  Your problem is that I don't have a solution to this.  And I freely admit I don't.  My desire would be some sort of economic aid package that goes to solidify the civilian government and allow it to better provide essential services to its citizens, combined with sanctions (i.e., a cut off of further aid to the military) in exchange for greater accountability and disclosure of Pakistan's security measures re: its weapons programs, but I have no idea if that would work or to what extent it is feasible government under the current circumstances.

 What's your solution/proposal or do you simply criticize others who comment on these issues based on your own assumptions and prejudices about them without having any alternatives to suggest of your own?  If you have something constructive to say, say it.  So far I haven't heard anything but attacks from you  based on your own presuppositions about what those of us who report on this issue are seeking (a concern the mainstream media is not covering very well I might add).  Your principal assumption seems to be that we are all warmongers itching to employ the military option, though what you base that on other than your own imagination I can't discern.

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

by Steven D on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 09:48:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Constructive: respect Pakistani sovereignty. Constructive: stop destabilizing Pakistani sovereignty by putting an end to the neo-colonial adventure in Afghanistan. Constructive (this one is for you): stop writing hysterical posts that equate the situation in Pakistan with the housing bubble. I guess it is a good thing that you are backtracking as best as you can from the subtext of your original post: What do you establish after all by equating the housing bubble with the situation in Pakistan? That "the authorities" were asleep at the wheel and didn't "intervene" and cut short the madness and thus let the bubble debacle happen --- just like in Pakistan (note that this neo-colonial logic in that it assumes the US is Pakistan's ultimate authority). Your post is about "intervention" no matter how much you are tying yourself in knots about it now. Just like economic intervention has a way of taking shape in certain ways (raising interest rates, regulation of financial institutions) so superpower intervention has a way of taking shape in certain ways, see Vietnam, see Iraq, see Afghanistan, see Chile, see Indonesia, see Hungary, see Cyprus, see Somalia, see...
by Guthman on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 10:24:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"...rumors are flying that the Obama administration wants a new military dictatorship in Pakistan and is pushing the "militants getting their hands on nukes" meme for that reason..."

Guthman, why would the Obama administration support a new military dictatorship if the concern is "militants getting their hands on nukes"?  Everything I've read would indicate the military has the closest relationship with the folks we'd rather not have nukes.  Unless, of course, one were to conclude the Pakistani military itself is threatening to allow nukes to fall into terrorist hands in order to have its way.

by VizierVic (VizierVic@hotmail.com) on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 09:15:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The human species has quite a problem in controlling those infernal atomic weapons. But, if it doesn't develop such control, through the UN or treaties rigidly enforced, then the perils of nuclear wars just grow and grow.  

I wonder if we can evolve beyond national states and traditional religions while there is still time or maybe just the survivors of atomic warfare will change the way of doing things cuz the present system is too fraught with danger to all of us including unborn generations.

Coupled with the threats from global warming, the planet might not be able to sustain many more threats from its human components.  I wonder if other planets in the galaxy have similar problems.

Suppose you scrub your ethical skin until it shines, but inside there is no music, then what? Kabir

by Dongi 2 on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 09:42:19 AM EST
I mean, what's the worst that could happen?



What part of "international war crimes" do you not understand?

by budr (budr at hughes net) on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 10:22:31 AM EST
The US might not know where all of Pakistan's nuclear sites are located (oh, what constitutes a "nuclear site"?) but, dollars to donuts, India and China know.  BTW, they are the nations most at risk from poor control of nukes in Pakistan.

The US is starting from a position of powerlessness and blindness, brought on by Bush profligacy.  Reckon what Valerie Plame Wilson and her colleagues were up to? Wonder who wanted it stopped?

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 11:00:51 AM EST
Let's not forget the infamous and still-on-the-table Afghanistan/Pakistan pipeline


by mainsailset on Mon May 4th, 2009 at 12:10:52 PM EST


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