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Gaming Sotomayor's Confirmation Vote

by BooMan
Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 05:22:41 PM EST

The Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Jeff Sessions of Alabama, announced today that there will be no filibuster of Sonia Sotomayor. Of course, demanding a vote on cloture (which is what a filibuster really is) is the prerogative of all 100 senators, so it's quite possible that a filibuster will still happen. But it won't be sustained. That means that Sonia Sotomayor will breeze to confirmation, and the only questions will be over how many votes she gets, how much this process has damaged the Republicans among women and Latinos, and how many angry whites have been weaponized by the Glenn Becks of the world.

We'll get an answer on the first question shortly. Doing a little envelope math, I predict that McCain and Graham will vote for her because they've long talked about the need to stop alienating the Latino community. I am sure Mel Martinez of Florida will show a little Caribbean solidarity. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are probably 'aye' votes. I think Richard Lugar will probably give her the thumbs up. Murkowski and Voinovich are definitely potential yeses. In fact, I think somewhere between a third and a half of the Republican caucus will vote to confirm Sotomayor. Make it thirteen to twenty votes for and twenty to twenty-seven votes against.

The Democratic caucus should be unanimous, although Ben Nelson and Bob Casey will be under pressure from pro-life groups to vote against her. So, my prediction is 75 votes to confirm (73 if Kennedy and Byrd are absent) and 25 votes against.

What say you?

Gaming Sotomayor's Confirmation Vote | 23 comments (23 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Gaming Sotomayor's Confirmation Vote (none / 0)

Off topic

by BooMan on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 05:33:26 PM EST

Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

if only enough GOP Senators vote to confirm Sotomayor to get her confirmed, but the rest of the GOP voted en masse against her.

Do you think the elected GOP are that stupid?

I would not be surprised if the 1 of the Texas Senators vote for Sotomayor. Kay Bailey is running for Governor of Texas, and the Hispanic vote is pretty important in parts of Texas right???

by lamh31 on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 05:37:10 PM EST

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

she has to win a Republican primary first against an incumbent governor who wants to secede from the union and it up on her in the polls. how do you think Kay is going to vote?

by BooMan on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 06:55:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

She has to vote for Sotomayor or she's driftwood against any Democratic opponent for Gov.

by americanforliberty on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 07:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

Really? Look at the last Governor's election in Texas. Perry couldn't even get 40% of the vote against a crappy Democrat, Kinky Friedman and Scott McClellan's mom.

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 08:21:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

Voting for Sotomayor could be fatal in the primary and she's trying to catch up. She doesn't have votes to spare.

by BooMan on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 08:26:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

But she's getting donors dollars that once went to Gov. Perry. The best thing for the Texas is for both of them to beat each other so much a Dem. is elected.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/legislature/stories/DN-govmoney_16te x.ART.State.Edition1.4bc51b9.html

by americanforliberty on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 09:15:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

Voting for Sotomayor could be fatal in the primary and she's trying to catch up. She doesn't have votes to spare.

But voting against Sotomayor could be fatal in the general if she manages to make it that far.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hutchinson somehow just doesn't show up at all that day. A "not voting" on the record is less easy to flog in Spanish-language commercials than a "no" vote with images of her juxtaposed with Rush Limbaugh. She just needs to come up with a compelling excuse for not being in DC that day and pray to Grod that any filibuster that any of her mouth-breathing colleagues tries to mount doesn't fail OR succeed by just one vote...

by nonynony on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 09:17:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

that won't work.

they'll ask her how she would have voted if she had been there, and she'll be compelled to answer.

she might avoid the problem by resigning now, but I think even that would fail.

she has to choose, and in politics, you choose to put off your own death as long as possible.

There is a small chance that she'll vote for Sotomayor, but she'll want as much company as she can get before she makes that decision.

by BooMan on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 09:32:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

She's between a rock and no place. No way out when you look at these charts with reference to Texas.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1024/exit-poll-analysis-hispanics

by americanforliberty on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 09:38:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

Yes. She is between a rock and a hard place. But, remember, winning in Texas is possible for a Republican even when they do poorly with the Latino vote. It won't be possible for much longer, but it is possible now. So, given the necessity of winning the primary to even get a chance in the general, it makes political sense to oppose her nomination on strictly ideological bounds that have nothing to do with her racial identity or comments she has made about race.

Say that she doesn't agree with her approach to the law, and be done with it.

If were brought in as a mercenary advisor, that is what I would counsel. Live to fight another day.

by BooMan on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 09:44:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

She could actually pick up more African American votes here in Texas if she did vote for Sotomayor. I'm an African American from New Orleans (a decidedly Dem city in a sea of Red) and as you are probably already know we tend to vote Democratic (and in New Orleans, we voter overwhelmingly Democratic) but I've just recently moved to Texas and I have noticed that some of the Black voters actually vote Repub quite often, even if it's by recognition alone. So if the Dem challenger is not someone they know, Kay Bailey has a good chance of getting some of their votes, if she can porve that she might be (or just pander) sympathetic to minority voter concerns. Admittedly, this is probably not an issue in during the Republican primaries.

by lamh31 on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 10:08:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

A vote for Sotomayor would be a big help in the general election. I agree with you. Hutchison has a lot of cross-over appeal to many Democratic groups and ethnicities. She'd probably win the general in a walk. But she has to get that far.

by BooMan on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 11:15:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wouldn't it be something... (none / 0)

At least she could be happy Immigration Reform isn't on the schedule at this time.

by americanforliberty on Fri Jul 17th, 2009 at 11:04:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gaming Sotomayor's Confirmation Vote (none / 0)

75 seems high to me in a world where the Republicans have already abandoned common sense and attacked her as a racist in the first place. Going to be a lot of pressure to vote no on her to try to cast her as illegitimate and partisan.

I'm gonna say 62-35.

More at Zandar vs. The Stupid.

by Zandar1 on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 05:54:26 PM EST

Re: Gaming Sotomayor's Confirmation Vote (none / 0)

I say 68-30 .. and i'll go out on a limb .. and say Casey will vote no .. cause his vote won't mean anything(except to the Randall Terrys) and Obama will need his vote on the health care

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 08:23:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gaming Sotomayor's Confirmation Vote (none / 0)

The White House sent me this via email:

Lugar statement on Judge Sotomayor
U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar released the following statement on the nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to be Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court:
"I have listened to the testimony of Judge Sonia Sotomayor before the Senate Judiciary Committee, carefully reviewed her public service record, and reviewed recommendations from Indiana constituents and colleagues here in the Senate. Judge Sotomayor is clearly qualified to serve on the Supreme Court and she has demonstrated a judicial temperament during her week-long nomination hearing. Judge Sotomayor has had a distinguished career of public service. She is well regarded in the legal community and by her peers. I will vote to confirm Judge Sonia Sotomayor's nomination to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States."

by BooMan on Fri Jul 17th, 2009 at 12:19:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OT: American Medical Association endorses House De (none / 0)

American Medical Association endorses House Democrats' health care bill

WASHINGTON -- House Democrats are picking up a big endorsement for their health care bill from the American Medical Association.
The executive vice president of the doctors' group, Michael Maves, said the bill meets the AMA's goals of expanding coverage while providing patients with a choice of health plans.
Maves said in a letter to the House Ways and Means Committee that the AMA appreciates the bill and supports its passage. He said the bill protects doctors while making sure that patients with existing illnesses aren't denied coverage...

by lamh31 on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 06:05:07 PM EST

Re: AMA endorses (none / 0)

If the AMA likes it, it can't be good.

by The Voice In The Wilderness on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 06:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AMA endorses (none / 0)

Howard Dean endorsed the same bill yesterday.

The country we hold in our hearts is waiting Bruce Springsteen

by Davis X Machina on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 08:06:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AMA endorses (none / 0)

Touche'

by The Voice In The Wilderness on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 09:28:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gaming Sotomayor's Confirmation Vote (none / 0)

I say the republicans are a bunch of crackers.

nalbar

by nalbar (nalbarsatgmaildotcom) on Thu Jul 16th, 2009 at 06:07:30 PM EST

Re: Gaming Sotomayor's Confirmation Vote (none / 0)

I came up with a count of 69 - the 60 Democrats and Independents (I think Casey will vote for her.) plus 9 Republicans: Hatch and Graham from the Judiciary Committee and Collins, Snowe, Lugar, McCain, Martinez, Hutchison, and Voinovich. Of course, without Byrd and Kennedy, it would be 67. I entertain mild hope for Murkowski and Bennett, and Bunning could be angry enough at McConnell to defy his edict.

by Mum on Sat Jul 18th, 2009 at 03:39:06 AM EST

Gaming Sotomayor's Confirmation Vote | 23 comments (23 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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