No, we're not screwed.  If HCR is passed in some form, Democrats will have delivered on their primary mission of governance, regardless of any mid-term consequences, making any electoral reverses temporary if anything.  Furthermore, just getting some kind of health care reform passed which expands state participation (even without a public option) will be a seismic shift in the health care policy terrain and be almost impossible to reverse.  It puts us as a country on an entirely new path of deliberation regarding who gets what in our society, and the focus will quickly change from excessive profits in private insurance companies to excessive profits by health care providers, a group that can't even be touched in the current health care policy terrain.  There is no way for Democrats to lose by passing even a watered down HCR bill of the kind in the Senate, and now is finally the time for HCR proponents to do or give on anything to get the few extra votes needed (Stupak concessions included).

My fear is that at this point the dissonance on the health care issue is so entrenched that I don't expect anything like a sigh of relief.  I expect full blown hysteria.  And I think that is what we will get.  

All one has to do is think back to the health care town halls. Where one person after another, many of whom were directly benefiting and in many cases being kept from bankruptcy by the fact they or their families were recipients of government run, single payer health care, standing there and tearfully decrying this "government takeover of their health care".  

These people have no grounding in reality.  And they are well past the point of being swayed by something as inconvenient as facts.  I have a hard time seeing enough short term benefits in the lead up to November to prevent what Nate has outlined.  If the Dems had been able to pass HCR in a more realistic time frame and given themselves a chance to make the case for the tremendous benefits that will occur as a result, I think they stood a chance of starting to turn the narrative for November.  As it is, I think they are simply left to hope that people see through all the right-wing sturm und drang that is coming down the pipeline.  They will be left to fight the battles of perception which should have occurred months ago.  That is why the GOP goal was to drag this out as long as possible.  They knew they could at least have a chance at making the political outcome for Democrats as costly as possible.  And they might just succeed.

Bi-partisanship.  Bi-partisanship.  Bi-partisanship.  Bull Shit.

Obama wasted a whole year on health care instead of just steamrolling the Party of NO.  Can't the administration do more than one thing at a time?  Jobs.  Jobs are what is needed.

In a rational world/country, there would be nationwide celebration. Where we live, that's unlikely to happen on its own. Everything depends on the Dems leading the cheering with the facts and without apology. If they own that this is only a first step toward building something even better, they'll do well this November. That's kind of a fragile reed to cling to, but they've been doing better lately, and it's what we've got. I think there's potential for a triumphant surge -- but everything depends on how well the Dems and their allies communicate the magnitude of their achievement, and what it means to every American. I think there's still more inclination out there to give Obama and the Dems the benefit of the doubt than the polls indicate, but they absolutely have to do the marketing.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

we are MORE screwed if HCR doesn't pass -- MUCH more.

Sigh of relief, indeed -- but I wish I saw that light at the end of the tunnel as you do. It still has knives to its throat seven ways to Sunday, as far as I can tell.

It will give the Dems something to point to as an accomplishment, a "historic achievement" or something.

Swing voters and dejected progressives will rally and give the Dems a bump in the generic ballot.

Ultimately, however, the Dems are going to lose seats, with the extent of the damage primarily determined by the public's perception of the economy.

Now that the Dems have gotten smart about working alone, however, anything less than losing their majority is probably okay.

I don't think we can know just yet - hoping of course. Partly by now it's I'll believe it when I see it. That's why I think Nate's analysis of Halter's primary need not be a guideline for how it will play out.

Viva Obama

I was just saying yesterday how I'll be so glad when this is over.   It has been agony and it's gotten sort of same old "shit", different day.   It'll be a big relief.   More importantly, the media narrative will change, I think, from the sausage-making to the "brilliance of Obama" to get something done that's not be achievable for decades ... and to the changes (ie., benefits) that this will have for ordinary people.  Count 30,000,000 more Democratic votes.

we're screwed. it didn't have to be this way, but there it is.

The democrats decided to pursue a waaaay too long policy of "bisprtisanship". now, i want to make clear that I supported this when I thought it was window-dressing and just for show.  But once it was clear they meant it, I lost a lot of faith. and then when "change you can believe in" became "watered down incrementalism" and "backing down from every fight", i lost a bit more.

most of the people i know, from hard left liberals to the normal "i-don't-pay-much-attention-to-politics" crowd are unenthusiastic. and why should they be anything but? they see the banks get bailed out and see nothing for them. no jobs. no mortgage cramdown. HAMP hasn't worked out. and they see that the rhetoric is out of sync with actions.

my vote this year will be a write in candidate.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??

It's only March. The primaries aren't even over yet. There is lots and lots of time for the narrative to change.

I think HCR will help turn out the base if the President can sell it to the base. They didn't their public option, but they're getting a lot, and he's a good salesman.  I think he has a fighting chance to fire up his base if it passes.  If not, not so much.

For the general electorate, though, I think health care is a side show we're too focused on.  What'll matter is unemployment.  And unemployment.  And unemployment.  On that front, I think Dems will be terribly vulnerable.

I think the White House's new "by the numbers" campaign is going to win some converts. Are you all getting these emails? Yesterday, the number was 8, the number of people who lose health insurance every minute. Today, the number is 625, the number who lost health care every hour in 2009.

I'll be curious to see if this gets out beyond the faithful. I hope so.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

Atrios has said it over and over and over again- this has to be popular.  You can't just pass anything, declare Mission Accomplished, and expect the American people to be with you.  This thing called "Health Care Reform" has to be, in fact and/or perception, good for the American people.

To a certain extent, the Health Care bill as it's known to Americans now is not actually that popular.  That's the bad news.  The good news, however, is A) it's March and there's still time to sell it (once it's passed), and B) there are still some more (albeit dwindling) opportunities to make the bill more popular before it's up for passage.