Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

A Man Walked into a Bar

by BooMan
Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 12:13:29 PM EST

If you walk into a bar and tell someone that we can spend a trillion dollars and cover thirty million uninsured Americans and the effect on the budget will be to save $1.3 trillion over the next twenty years, you'll probably get told that you're crazy, But that's exactly what the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says the health care bill will do. According to DCCC chair, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, those numbers mean that the health care bill is the biggest deficit reduction bill since Bill Clinton's 1993 Economic Plan. That bill, known as the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993, didn't win a single Republican vote in the House or the Senate. In fact, the Senate vote was 50-50 and vice-president Al Gore cast the deciding vote. Notice, also, that it was a budget reconciliation bill, which is why it could pass with only 51 votes.

The people you meet in that bar might not believe that Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are the two presidents to enact major budget reduction legislation, or that the Democrats have a good record on budgets while, despite their rhetoric and branding, the Republicans have a disastrous record. They might not believe the CBO numbers because they can't imagine that it will save money to pay out hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies to the uninsured. But that is how screwed our health care system is. And that's why it's so important that we reform it.

A Man Walked into a Bar | 30 comments (30 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 1)

great, when do we start?
what I mean by that is when do we change it substantially, not by tinkering aroudn the edges at the expense of reproductive rights, and in a way that doesn't force people to buy the product of a private company?

i realize i'm the resident firebagger, but you yourself think the bill is largely a piece of shit.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??

by brendan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 12:40:59 PM EST

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (4.00 / 2)

Yeah, it is basically a piece of shit if you compare it to what a sensible person would come up with, or even a Congress that valued women as equal. It will still be the most important and progressive bill passed in my lifetime.

Causing a bit of cognitive dissonance, I know.

by BooMan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 12:54:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

guess what?

i can't afford it. i just did the math, using the kaiser family foundation calculator.

if for some reason my employer decided to cut back on our insurance or drop it altogether, the insurance exchange would force me to buy a policy that cost 7.8% of my income. That's nearly $300 a month, on top of the mortgage, the utilities (during winter, gas heat is as much as $400/month), the child support, auto insurance, and my student loans. Oh, and my student loans have been in forebearance for the past 2 years because I can't afford to pay them.

Now, if i can't afford to pay my student loan, how am i expected to afford $300/month for insurance with no subsidy (i wouldn't qualify) and no cap on my premium.

that's progressive? sounds like a recipe for bankruptcy to me. can you afford it? can cabingirl?

now i know they're promising to fix it later, but it seems that's what they said on NAFTA too. And FISA. And PATRIOT. I'm still waiting for those fixes, and i don't have faith that this will be fixed either.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??

by brendan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 02:27:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

Maybe it's because I'm from the South and have never really had to rely on gas for anything other than cooking, but, still, $400 on utilities sounds like an absurdly high figure. I've never spent more than a hundred and fifty bucks on utilities.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:09:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 1)

it's because you're from the south. I don't live in a big house; I live in an apartment in the duplex I own with my sister- my combined Gas/Electric run averaging 300/month, with only a break in April, May and possibly June. They switch off...from Late-June to Mid September, the electricity bill is the higher one, and since you usually have to turn on heat around mid October [if I'm lucky] - from Mid-October -March [today is the first day I was able to turn off the heat], the gas bill is the breaker. Gas is ridiculous. I feel lucky when the gas bill is below 300 dollars.

by rikyrah on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 04:01:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 1)

I don't think my area's climate is much different than Brendan's. Our house is a 15 year old 2 story.. During the very cold February this year, my utilities ran about $350. And we do everything we can to conserve. Programmable thermostat, set it way back overnight and during the day when we're at work. Hi temp kept about 68 when we're there. If I calculate level billing all year round, it runs about $250-260 a month.

Yeah, being in the south has its advantages. Count yourself lucky.

by Richard Bachman on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 04:08:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

you probably pay more than $300 for your insurance right now. And there are caps on your premiums, as you note.

by BooMan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:17:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

I'm self-employed and pay my own insurance now. No, I can't afford it. I just used the same calculator you did, choosing the Obama plan, and found out I'll pay about $70 more per month than I do now.

On the other hand, the minimum insurance under the bill is better than what I have now, which is a joke. I get a letter every year from my insurance company saying they don't cover the following conditions that are required to be covered in my state - followed by a two-page list. I'm pretty sure paying $70 per month to fill in the loopholes is a good deal for me.

I think what you're really complaining about is that you won't be able to choose to go uninsured without paying a penalty. That's right, you won't. You and a lot of other people will complain about that, but the price of expanding coverage is that everyone needs to be in. It took me a while to accept this - I was all in favor of Obama's no-mandate plan in the primaries - but once I realized that people WILL free-ride, I gave it up and realized everyone needs to be in. Including you.

Good luck to you.

by Rachel Q on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:23:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

I think the calculator is dishonest anyway, as it won't produce any outcome where there is a subsidy. I either get Medicaid or nothing.

Not surprising coming from that source.

Also, it's based (supposedly) on the Silver Plan. If you want cheaper you can get Bronze or Catastrophic.

by BooMan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:27:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

Is there an "honest" calculator available? I'd really like to see how this legislation is going to affect us. Or is it impossible for someone to code that applet because too many details are still up in the air?

by sjct on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 04:52:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

see that's a bad assumption rachel q.
i need to be insured, because i have asthma and need meds.

but look, no one's gonna give me a raise if they don't have to pay my insurance, contrary to booman's predictions from last year. i'll get the same salary and be out $300/month.

rude awakenings on the way. you don't have to believe me, but it's true.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??

by brendan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:32:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

brendan,

it's not that you'll necessarily get a raise to compensate you for the loss of health care, although you might be at least partially compensated. It's that you won't have $300 taken out of your paycheck before you get it for health insurance.

by BooMan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:39:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

um yeah. You mean it won't get taken out my paycheck by my employers: I'll take it out myself. And I'll take out a LOT more.

Today is payday, so i decided i'd look at my insurance costs that my employers take out:

every two weeks, I pay:
$17.12 for dental
9.50 for medical
and $2.98 for vision.
grand total? $29.60 every paycheck. At 2 paychecks per month, that's a little over $60/month.

I only go to the doctor a few times a year, with a $20/copay. So maybe 60/year. My presicription inhalers are $20/each. I buy the emergency inhaler every 2 months, and the flovent every 3 or 4.

we get paid biweekly, so multiply that by 26 weeks:
$769 and change.

Obama's plan costs me that much in 2 months.
so yeah, i won't have $300 taken out my paycheck anymore, but then i never did anyway. And the president's proposal is a lot more expensive than that should my employers drop our coverage.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??

by brendan on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 01:04:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

My apologies if I misunderstood you.

If you have a pre-existing condition, you'd be lucky to get meaningful insurance on the individual market now for less than $300.

by Rachel Q on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:43:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

Case in point, me. My employer before he folded the doors used to pay $400 a month to insure me, then I got cancer & he folded his doors. Now I have to go into a high risk pool and pay $727 a month (and that's with a $3,000 deduct), no COBRA because COBRA is company based so doesn't exist when the company itself closes its doors.

And as for the utilities, yes I'll agree I pay even a bit more than you if you consider utilities to be electric, gas & phone....

But like Boo commented, it's preloaded with the Silver, and unlike today, tomorrow offers not a slim chance at better coverage. It all comes down to if your preexisting condition doesn't kill ya your health care company will step up to the plate and finish ya off.

by mainsailset on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 04:11:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

I'm uninsured because insurance refused to pay for doctor-prescribed treatments, and I couldn't afford to keep paying for both.

Not everyone is trying to find a 'loophole'.

by shaej on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:41:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

The difference in opinion seems to come from whether you think the piece of shit bill pretty much accurately reflects the country it lives in. Change the system at its root, you get better healthcare. In the meantime I don't quite get why you keep ranting about the best apple that the rotten dying tree could produce.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 02:57:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

funny that you mention that.
first of all, i don't think it's the best apple the rotten dying tree could produce. at all. we're the wealthiest nation on earth, and the best we can do for our people is "better than nothing"? really? that's quite an american dream to strive for.

second, who wants to eat the fruit of a rotten diseased tree? that pretty much ensures sickness.

you know what this all reminds me of? A simpsons episode, the one where mr. Burns lost his fortune and Lisa turned him onto recycling. as it turned out, mr. burns horribly perverted the whole idea, and fashioned an enormous purse-seine net out of six-pack holders and began making "little lisa's slurry" out of all the fish he's catching (including of course dolphins, whales, etc). the money quote is when lisa says "when you're good you're even MORE evil."

that's like health care reform. they made something good into something even its supporters loathe. that's quite a trick, and no way to win elections.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??

by brendan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:20:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

You're still assuming this tree could produce something better. To me, watching it all go down pretty well proved that at least right here, right now, this was pretty close to optimal. It's hateful that that's true, which I suppose explains all the conspiracy theories about how Obama and the Dems never wanted anything any good in the first place.

And yeah, it sucks that we have to eat the apple from the sick tree. Welcome to America. We may (or may not) be the richest country in the world, but our real standard of living is among the very worst in the developed world. The New Deal, The Fair Deal, the Great Society were all revolutionary for America, but still produced social policies that are downright stone-age compared with what the citizens of Europe, Japan, and elsewhere gave themselves. But at least we have a "free market economy" and religious lunacy.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 06:48:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Every possible solution (none / 1)

forces someone to buy the product of a private company. There are no government offices making drugs or MRI machines. There are no government doctors, or government hospitals (at least none for private citizens). Someone has to pay for healthcare, and it is 100% certain that payment will enrich some CEO, some board of directors, and some set of stockholders.

Frankly, the pens and paper that will be used to sign the bill will make some private company a tidy profit.

Obviously there are significant flaws in this approach, but the "private company" criticism has always struck me as either naive or disingenuous. Trying to avoid enriching private companies, in America, is like trying to outrun your own shadow.

by Darkmoth on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:23:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

Boo:
Have any comment on Glennzilla's post today? And with that, if Rahm is proven correct(at least in a sense), what do you think will be the effect on voter turnout? I am curious about something else to. Just curiousity sake. Say the Democrats suffer a blood bath come November. Do you really think Obama will govern farther to the right then he is now?

You know why this is, right? Because both think highly of that crook named Bob Rubin and his "let them eat cat food" views.

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 01:04:57 PM EST

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

Well, I went and read Glenn's post and it is something I responded to yesterday or the day before in discussing Nate's post.

There are two sides to the puzzle and Glenn focuses on only one.

Progressives are the people who generally represent the urban areas where the majority of the uninsured live, although there is no shortage in rural areas or even suburban. Progressives care more about health care for the uninsured than anyone else. They are going to support any legislation that offers huge subsidies for their at risk constituents to buy health insurance. You have to know that going in. Rahm knew it. Baucus and Conrad knew it. I knew it. And anyone listening to kill-the-bill bullshit ought to have known it too.

Hamsher made a decision to work very hard to try to get progressives to commit to something that there was no chance in hell they would honor. I could credit her effort, but I'd rather focus on her betrayal to her followers who donated hundreds of thousands of dollars as a reward for a pledge that meant nothing and Jane ought to have known meant nothing.

Glenn says the exercise made progressives weaker, and it probably did, marginally. We lost credibility in Congress and with our constituents, we got nothing, and hurt the party and the president in the process.

It's stupid to argue for progressives to start doing things that they simply aren't ever going to do. There are certain things you can rely on progressives to cave on, and the biggest health care bill in forty years is certainly one of them.

I advocated for a public option on the grounds that was good policy and good politically. But I always said it was a long-shot to get into the bill, and that it could probably only happen in reconciliation. I didn't say that reform should be opposed if the bill wasn't to my liking because I knew I would support it almost no matter what. And I knew that almost every other progressive would, too.

If you value honesty in blogging, you should take note of who was consistent and a straight shooter throughout the process.

by BooMan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 01:50:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

But what about turnout for the mid-terms? Did Rahm win the battle but lose the war?

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 01:59:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 1)

Eighty-nine percent of progressives/liberals disagree with Jane Hamsher and support the bill. Democrats are going to be ecstatic when this thing passes. Picture Clinton's presidency with a successful health care bill.

by BooMan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 02:02:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

And not just Clinton's presidency as it was, but gaining back all the potential that was lost when their bill collapsed, Gingrich & Co. won back the House, etc. It would have been a different political landscape more favorable to progressive ideas.

by Lodus on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 02:19:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

yeah but wait until people start getting bills they can't afford, and realize who's to blame.

it's gonna be a short-lived victory.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??

by brendan on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 02:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Most people (none / 0)

probably won't get bills they can't afford. You have the roughly 80% who are already covered by their employer. At the other end, you have people who are completely to partially subsidized. Those groups are by far the lion's share of the populace.

Then you have people who are going to continue to go uninsured and pay the fine (95 bucks I think). That group could potentially produce some malcontents, but even some of them will realize that they can now just apply for insurance after they get sick.

The people who really get stiffed are the ones that:

a) absolutely need insurance
b) weren't prevented from buying it before
c) can barely afford what they have

Because individual plans are so restrictive as far as pre-existing conditions, "b" alone makes this last set of people much smaller than you'd imagine. I, for example, could easily afford private insurance, but I have a pre-existing condition. I can only get approved when I work for an employer.

Granted if you do meet all three conditions, you're going to be pissed - and rightfully so. But to be fair, any healthcare that wasn't completely free would be unaffordable for some segment.

by Darkmoth on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:35:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

We'll see ... I'll believe it when we see people like Richard Burr start lagging in the polls ... or other close races start turning the Democrats way ... I'd love to see it .. I'm just withholding judgment till we see actual numbers

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 08:38:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 0)

Given the title, I expected to see some shtick. But this is almost as good.

Oh, there you are, Perry. -Phineas -SLB-

by boran2 (blogistan@yahoo.com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 01:11:02 PM EST

Re: A Man Walked into a Bar (none / 1)

the bartender says, "I can't serve you unless you're wearing a tie." Guy goes to his car and ties a set of jumper cables around his neck, goes back in and asks, "How's this?" The bartender says "Okay, but don't start anything."

by Ed J on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:21:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A Man Walked into a Bar | 30 comments (30 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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