Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

Yes. Democrats aren't so retarded as to shoot themselves in the foot this close to victory.

Plus, apparently donors are calling the holdouts and the unions are playing hardball. This is crunch time and in a year when cash is necessary a lot of folks will find the mother's milk of politics run dry if this doesn't pass.

by Rhoda on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 04:58:18 PM EST

just got a call from a Feingold fundraiser; told him I'll donate after hcr passes. Instead of yelling and screaming (the usual routine for the past few months) he laughed and thanked me. guess his outfit thinks it will pass.

Viva Obama

by Errol on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 06:33:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, by a wider margin than expected. (4.00 / 3)

A lot of those Dem "no" votes are going to switch once they realize it's going to pass anyway. Expect a wider margin than any of us expect.

Up until that moment, however, this is going to look very sketchy. I'm still surprised at how many Dems are planning to vote no on this- they are going to pay a huuuuuge price for that, from both sides of the spectrum.

by cfaller96 (cfaller96@gmail.com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:00:21 PM EST

Re: Yes, by a wider margin than expected. (none / 0)

A lot of those Dem "no" votes are going to switch once they realize it's going to pass anyway. Expect a wider margin than any of us expect.

This right here.

More at Zandar vs. The Stupid.

by Zandar1 on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 07:50:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, by a wider margin than expected. (none / 0)

Seconded Zandar, nice blogging these past few weeks btw.

by Paul W on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 07:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'd like to think so, but knowing Democrats' capacity to screw things up, I'll believe nothing unless that 216th Yay is recorded.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:36:39 PM EST

Re: Place Your Bets (4.00 / 3)

I believe it's going to pass...and it's been hilarious watching Stupak become irrelevant with every passing press release from this national Catholic group and that one IN SUPPORT of the bill.

by rikyrah on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 06:33:16 PM EST

95% yes.

by gideon on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 04:27:41 PM EST

Ditto.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 07:19:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Running the numbers through my HAL 9000, I come up with
92.6875% yes. (+/-0.3125%)

by Richard Bachman on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 04:33:04 PM EST

I'm giving it a 'Yes.'

The more control, the more that requires control. This is the road to chaos. -Frank Herbert, The Dosadi Experiment

by chimneyswift on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 04:42:07 PM EST

Hell to the yes.

by eclecticbrotha on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 04:53:20 PM EST

Hispanic Dems will vote yes on healthcare

Yes. There's a whole lot of whippin' goin' on. The President is (finally) deeply involved, meeting a bunch of the reluctants. Labor is stepping up and telling Blue Dogs that they got their last independent expenditure if they vote 'no.' Colleagues are pushing colleagues. A trickle of urine is visible along Republicans' pant-legs.

In the final analysis, whatever fantasy world they may live in, Democrats in tight districts can vote 'no,' and still get no help from the Republicans, or they can vote 'yes,' and get whatever help the party in power can bring. It's not that hard to figure out, even for those who over-calculate.

by CrapIsKing (CrapIsKing) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:14:42 PM EST

Hispanic Dems Will Vote Yes (none / 1)

(The Hill) - The critical bloc of Democrats said an impasse over immigration language was not worth sacrificing President Obama's top legislative initiative.

Half a dozen members of the CHC held a news conference to announce their support. They were unhappy with language that barred illegal immigrants from accessing the public health insurance exchanges and more than a dozen had threatened to vote against the Senate bill and its companion reconciliation package. The House healthcare bill, which passed by two votes, won the support of every member of the Hispanic Caucus.

WHIP COUNT: House Democrats' positions on the healthcare reform bill

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

by Oui on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:19:53 PM EST

Re: Hispanic Dems Will Vote Yes (none / 0)

Thanks for the clarification. WGN-TV reported that the Hispanic Coalition was opposed because immigrants were barred from benefits under it. The critical word "illegal" was omitted, leaving the impression that legal immigrants were barred.

by The Voice In The Wilderness on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 06:11:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Great comments, all. Hell yes.

by Lodus on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:24:15 PM EST

Yes. (none / 0)

But with a little audacity it could have been a much better bill.

by Ed J on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:26:07 PM EST

My vote yes!!!!!!

Click here to step into the Village Blue2

by diane101 (dianed101 @ yahoo.com) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:44:42 PM EST

Yes it passes.
No, I don't get a policy til 2014.

by obsessed on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:45:08 PM EST

Based on the fact that Heath Shuler has moved from a No to an Undecided (according to Sam Stein), I think the answer is Yes. If Shuler votes Yes, a lot of the Blue Dogs will also vote Yes.

Bart Stupak has been left alone holding the bag after trying to enforce the will of the Catholic Bishops and James Dobson. He has been sputtering, but if enough folks sign on, he's likely to cave too. He has supported healthcare reform in the past, but is caught up in the C Street House crowd.

I give a substantial or even unanimous Democratic vote a 50-50 chance. Finally, with Kucinich and Gutierrez having decided to vote Yes, the Blue Dogs and undecideds are feeling the pressure.

The paradox is that the larger the Democratic vote the more the fraidy-cats have cover to vote Yes.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 05:54:40 PM EST

I kind of hope it passes without Stupak. A No vote from him will make for a much stronger primary campaign to dump him.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 06:56:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Have you seen Stupak's dissing of the nuns of various orders (59,000) who came out and supported the bill. On Maddow's show she had a clip where he said that he only listened to the Bishops and Focus on the Family

by Heart of the Rockies on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 08:06:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I expect it to pass, I suspect the question will then become ... which parts of it will actually roll out before the 2010 elections?

by shaej on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 06:08:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The good parts.

Poster child is ending denial of coverage for children with pre-existing conditions.

Transitional risk pool for high-risk (i.e. pre-existing condition) patients.

Beyond that, the reconciliation package fixes will probably have something.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 07:33:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Never unanimous, but I agree, it will pass. And God help us all, maybe in ten years we can get real reform.

However, I fear the backlash from the deep crippling cuts in Medicare reimbursements. The 65+ group will vote Republican when they find out that their doctor will no longer take Medicare because he isn't paid enough because of this law.

It was great fun arguing with a wing nut this morning about "deeming" and telling hum that R's used in three times as much as D's especially under Bush. He was reduced to literally foaming at the mouth and shouting,"CAN'T YOU GUYS EVER FORGET BUSH!" To which I riposted calmly, "Can't you guys ever forget Clinton?"

They hate this so much, I'm starting to hope this POS passes just to see their heads explode.

by The Voice In The Wilderness on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 06:18:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Place Your Bets (4.00 / 4)

The "crippling cuts in Medicare reimbursements" is misunderstanding where the savings come from. They come from the elimination of Medicare Advantage plans in which insurance companies get payment for little but administering them. The actual benefits will not be cut. Seniors might be surprised that they have be lied to about this.

Another source of savings is beginning to reduce the information processing costs of Medicare by changing the way that providers bill (making it simpler and more oriented to solutions than procedures) and how quickly the Feds pay providers (reducing providers' collection costs from Medicare).

The Medicare parts and the community health clinics are some of the best parts of the bill.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 07:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks, TarHeel. You are on the money. The Medicare savings come out of the insurance companies pockets, not the docs'. This is one more part of the bill our media discuss freely while seldom mentioning that it's not actually in the bill. We have spent a great deal of time talking about parts of the bill like death panels that do not exist. What if we had a free media in this country that informed citizens about what is actually in pending legislation instead of gauging the emotional reactions to lies? How cool would that be?

by CrapIsKing (CrapIsKing) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 08:04:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks TarHeelDem. Network News says that reimbursements will be cut 22%. Oral Surgeon that operated on me last week was quite upset about it.

So it is "Part C" reimbursements that are being cut then?

BTW, my GP takes Part B but she refuses to join any "Advantage" Plan. I gather the advantage is all to the insurance companies.

This is what is fueling all the negative polls, half-info and mis-info coming from the corporate media.

I really have to remember Mark Twain's advice to only belief half of what I see and none of what I read in the newspapers. It's hard not to believe the TV for one raised on Walter Cronkite, Chet Huntley and David Brinkley. Still astonished that they tell baldfaced lies.

by The Voice In The Wilderness on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 10:32:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm not sure if it's still in the final bill, but one of the Medicare savings was forcing hospitals to pay for treating hospital-caused infections -- instead of letting them bill Medicare for it. I don't see how anybody can argue against that.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 01:03:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What TarHeel said, but:

They hate this so much, I'm starting to hope this POS passes just to see their heads explode.

I asked a friend of mine yesterday if he thought it was wrong that this was my favorite part of passing this bill. I asked, "Shouldn't the fact that millions will get coverage be my favorite part? I feel bad but at the same time, my favorite part of this will be the right-wing going nutso after it passes..."

We both agreed that it's not wrong. It will be glorious. LaFeminista pointed out this video, and it made me smile:

by seabe on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 08:00:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

100% yes (none / 1)

There are too many VERY LARGE egos invested to have this fall apart now. In that vein, a potential "no" vote can probably name their price for a switch to "yes". This is a sellers market if I've ever seen one.

by Darkmoth on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 06:11:11 PM EST

Pelosi is good. If she moves it to the floor, it'll pass.

by Rachel Q on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 06:25:35 PM EST

Re: Place Your Bets (4.00 / 3)

I just want to second what Rachel Q said. Nancy Pelosi knows how to count as well as any politician in living memory.

P.S. I'm waiting for the realization that the real "tough pols" today are Obama (the skinny, even-tempered law school professor) and Pelosi (the San Francisco liberal grandmother)---and not chickenhawk blowhards like Bush, Cheney, DeLay, Gingrich, etc.---to dawn on the Washington pundits (Chris Matthews, I'm looking at you, and you're not alone) who worship at the altar of "toughness".

by massappeal on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 09:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

yes, waiting for the day

Viva Obama

by Errol on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 11:09:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama's sense of timing requires nerves of steel. I really don't know how he does it without going mad.

by Rachel Q on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 02:13:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I think the hysteria on the right is both a predictor of success and a strong motivator for wavery Dems to vote for it. Even the most Broder-infested Dem has to know that aligning himself with the crazies will cost them in the end. Plus there's the scenario of it losing and having to listen to the hyenas across the aisle howl their bloody idiot triumph.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 07:06:56 PM EST