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Late Friday Chaos

by BooMan
Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 10:35:38 PM EST

Rumors are swirling like crazy tonight and the stuff is so deep down in the weeds that it's over my head. Pelosi is having a lot of success in rounding up members, but it looks like Stupak still has a gun to her head. What I can't tell you is whether she'll be able to get Stupak's support without Stupak actually getting his extreme anti-choice language in the bill. The reason I can't tell you that is because the parliamentary gamesmanship that is going on is too opaque for me to be certain of whether Stupak might be able to prevail if given a separate vote on his language. It might pass the House, but I don't think it can pass the Senate. And I can't tell you for sure whether it failing in the Senate would sink the entire health care reform effort, or simply mean that the reform passes without the Stupak language. I wish I could help you out on this, but it's above my paygrade. It depends on the differing interpretations of the House and Senate parliamentarians, and I don't really understand the process under discussion or the likely outcome.

Basically, the Senate parliamentarian has ruled that the Senate cannot use reconciliation on a bill unless that bill is already signed into law. So, the House has to pass the Senate bill and then the president must sign that bill, and only then can the Senate take up reconciliation. But the House parliamentarian is allowing the House to concurrently pass the Senate bill and the reconciliation bill. So, if Stupak gets a stand alone vote on his anti-choice language and it passes the House, it would seem that the Senate could simply ignore it or defeat it. But I can't be sure about that. If this is a clever way to let Stupak and his small gang save some face, I guess I am reluctantly okay with it. But if this is a cave-in that will either sink the reform effort or result in the Stupak language becoming law, then I am not okay with it.

I wish I could do better, but I honestly don't understand the details here.

Late Friday Chaos | 24 comments (24 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 1)

Stupak language becoming law could have the effect of mobilizing pro-choice voters to be single-issue voters for candidates. If this actually happens, good news for Connie Saltonstall.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 10:58:26 PM EST

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 1)

that's like trying to put a cherry on a pile of dogshit and calling it a sundae.

by BooMan on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 11:03:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

Perzactly.

But that might be the sorry state that this Congress is in.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 11:53:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

Every other Dem voting no (or threatening to) is empowering Stupak at this point. Lots of blame to spread around.

by Rachel Q on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 12:41:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

Unlike Stupak, most of them don't have primary challengers -- yet.

It will be interesting to see if there really is a political cost in terms of White House or DCCC campaign support for Democrats voting No.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 07:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

Michael Moore is in Stupak's district? Connie Saltonstall should not want for campaign cash.

Viva Obama

by Errol on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 10:23:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

We need to pass health care. And if Stupak is holding the needed votes, we gotta live with it and fix it all later. It's ugly but 32 million...

by forus50 on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 11:52:57 PM EST

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

Just to be clear, that 32 million people don't magicly have coverage immediately. Between now and 2014 it depends on what the insurance companies do with the high-risk reinsurance pool. And what employers do with tax credits and....it might not be affordable coverage immediately even if it occurs.

The folks getting immediate benefit are those currently having insurance, who no longer have to worry about rescissions or caps on benefits.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 11:57:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

agree. But until we elect better Democrats we have to pass the bill that we can pass. Crap, there are already 30 some Democrats voting NO with or without the Stupak deal! So it's an obviously really lousy group of Dems that Obama, Reid and Pelosi are stuck with.

Here we have the minority party voting 100% no and yet we have 30-50 Dems going to vote no also. It's just a lousy, lousy situation we find ourselves in with so many not supporting the Democratic platform so I'm going to totally support Pelosi on whatever she has to do on this one.

by forus50 on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 12:07:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

Here we have the minority party voting 100% no and yet we have 30-50 Dems going to vote no also.

And yet the DCCC will defend those 30-50 to the death. And why are three committee chairs voting against it? Those three should have their chairs revoked.

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 12:38:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 1)

President Obama, at least, said that he would withhold support for people who voted against the bill.

Or am I forgetting something?

by MrPlow on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 04:09:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

Watching for him to deliver on this promise.

And, oh yes, validating that he actually has said this.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 07:28:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

But a lot of Blue Dogs wouldn't want him to come visit their district anyway. They only way to really stick it to the Blue Dogs would be to dry up their non-corporate campaign cash.

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 10:31:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

No, you aren't. lol

by freakofsociety (libbylalala@gmail.com) on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 11:10:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

The work on this bill, the position we're in today, even though there's been any number of screw ups when you put it up against what LBJ achieved and how he is touted as the great arm twister, hey, what he had to deal with was kindergarten.

by mainsailset on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 12:21:42 AM EST

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

A little off-topic, and it's a little late for me, but if the Rate Authority is no longer in the bill, and if Congress therefore has no direct control over the cost of premiums, and if subsidies of premiums don't begin until months/years later, then either the cost or the number of people covered may vary greatly. In other words:

How can the CBO score the bill when we have no idea how much the government will have to pay to subsidize 31 million new members

or

How can the Democrats claim how many people this bill will cover when they have no idea how many policies it can afford to cover with the stated budget?

by blue moon on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 12:54:42 AM EST

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 1)

The CBO score on this is like any CBO score, given the fact that they must estimate 10- and 20-year budget impacts: a SWAG. Businesses can't anticipate where they will be in 5 years, much less 10 or 20. Congress is asking CBO to do the impossible just to give Congress a narrative for political cover.

The Democrats like all other politicians use "studies" to cherry pick estimates.

But the fact that they don't know how much the policies will cost means that inevitably Congress will have to come back and deal with cost control--just like they are having to do with Romneycare, which is what the bill in Congress is modeled on.

That means that contrary the skeptics, Congress will have to fix the law and probably in the next session of Congress. The only question will be who will be in Congress to do the fixing and whether "fixing" is a mechanical or a veterinary term in this case.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 07:35:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 1)

The usually authoritative (in my experience) David Waldman discusses this at http://www.congressmatters.com/storyonly/2010/3/19/2200/-Stupak-takes-us-into-the-weeds-under-the-we eds-of-reconciliation but does not seem to add anything beyond what we have here.

Maybe it'll just go away.

How did American democracy get like this?

by Roger Lamb on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 01:22:23 AM EST

Pelosi Going for Broke (none / 0)

.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Shoots Down Rep. Bart Stupak's 'Fix'

ABC News' Jonathan Karl reports: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi was asked about Bart Stupak's suggestion that there could be another bill to address abortion funding and she said, "I haven't heard any of that."

"If you don't want federal funding for abortion... and you want to have a health care bill," she said. "This is it."

She said members may be talking about various things and dismissively mentioned Stupak's name, adding, "But right now we are just getting votes to pass a bill."

"This bill is about health care and not about abortion," Pelosi said. "There will be no further changes in the bill."

h/t CatholicVoteAction

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

by Oui on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 08:45:44 AM EST

Pelosi Will Get the Votes (none / 0)

.

House Democrats see momentum on health bill

(Reuters) - The House will vote on Sunday afternoon on President Barack Obama's top domestic legislative priority, which picked up fresh momentum by winning four new converts after receiving a good report card from congressional budget analysts.

"I feel very sure that we will vote sometime after 2 o'clock on Sunday and the bill will pass," Democratic Representative James Clyburn, the top House vote-counter, told reporters.

Three new supporters were picked up when Representatives John Boccieri, Allen Boyd and Suzanne Kosmas announced they would switch from "no" votes last November to "yes" -- bringing to six the number of House Democrats to do so in the past three days.

« click for vote count

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

by Oui on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 08:57:58 AM EST

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 1)

Ellsworth says he'll vote yes.

The decision by Rep. Brad Ellsworth, D-Ind., to support health care reform legislation pending before Congress drew more than two dozen people Friday afternoon Downtown to the Federal Building to demonstrate their support for the congressman and the legislation.
They carried signs announcing their support and waved at passing motorists on King Boulevard.
"We're also out here standing up for our Constitution," said David Jones, 63, vice president of Local 808 retirees. "Health care for all citizens is part of their general welfare. This is the only industrial country in the world where if you lose your job you lose your health care. It really shouldn't be attached to employment at all."

Local freepers' panties in a wad this morning over it. I'll spare you the spewings.

"I never trust people who don't laugh." Maya Angelou, March 5, 2009

by Indianadem on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 08:58:58 AM EST

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

Since Ellsworth is a Blue Dog through and through, I wonder if Obama said no campaign cash for you unless you vote yes. I mean, lets face it, Obama did win Indiana. So a Democrat to the left(however small) of Bayh can win there.

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 10:34:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 0)

And as heir apparent to at least the nomination, Ellsworth is facing an expensive fight to succeed ~~Senator Bland~~ Evan in November.

"I never trust people who don't laugh." Maya Angelou, March 5, 2009

by Indianadem on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 11:10:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Friday Chaos (none / 1)

This is the first time in this debate that I, too, have felt at sea understanding the legislative maneuvering.

But my gut instinct is that, if a deal with Stupack is made, it will look like this:

(1) Final "passage" of the Senate+reconciliation sidecar will NOT be dependent upon Stupack language passing muster (from the parliamentarians and legislators);
(2) The main purpose will be to enable Stupack to save face;
(3) Pro-choice groups will raise hell until they realize the #2 point.
(4) A final, final, final resolution of all of this (in the House) will occur on Sunday. In other words, the House will not need to take additional action, even if the Senate doesn't approve of whatever the Stupack deal is. Sunday's vote in the House is the last the House will need to take for the foreseeable future.
(5) Alternatively to points 1-4, Pelosi will magically peel off the last several votes needed to avoid further discussions with Stupack.

I'm still confident we'll be proclaiming victory a week from now, just not sure how we get there.

by gideon on Sat Mar 20th, 2010 at 09:31:22 AM EST

Late Friday Chaos | 24 comments (24 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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