(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Oregon, along with Kentucky, will be the states that help put Barack Obama over the necessary number of pledged delegates needed to attain a majority of them - and thus nullify and serious argument Hillary Clinton can make about deserving the nomination. With the movement of pledged delegates from John Edwards to Obama following the former's endorsement, Kentucky will actually be the state that officially vaults Obama over the number - even though it will be in Oregon where he will triumph.

Although Bill Clinton had been hitting the rural areas of the state heavily in support of his wife, as has been his habit lately, the Clinton campaign seems to have given up on the state - both of the Clintons are campaigning in Kentucky today, futilely hoping that the media narrative will focus on her big win there instead of the reality that winning the nomination becomes impossible for her after Tuesday. Obama has spent the entire weekend in the state, capping his visit with a monstrous rally in Portland. Below the fold, I give my predictions for what will happen in the state's primary.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Kentucky is a state similar to West Virginia - it's one where Hillary Clinton has focused a great deal of attention and is likely to win by one of her widest margins over Barack Obama. While she and Bill Clinton have campaigned vigorously in the state, Obama has only held one rally in the state (last week in Louisville) and doesn't appear to be returning before Tuesday's primary. Like West Virginia, the state (and the Democrats in particular) are rural, working-class white voters who have favored Clinton. Throw in the fact that a good swath of Kentucky, particularly the eastern portion of the state, lies in Appalachia, and you have the makings of another rough election night ahead for Obama. Luckily for him, Oregon is also voting the same night - a state which he will almost certainly win - and will therefore counterbalance the negative results here.

Follow me below the fold for a district-by-district analysis of the likely results on Tuesday...

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

After last week's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, the media narrative shifted dramatically against Hillary Clinton. She lost big in North Carolina and barely held off Barack Obama in Indiana. Not even a week later, and she lost her long-standing lead in superdelegates as well. That being said, tomorrow's primary in West Virginia is going to be a blowout for Clinton. Both Clinton and her husband have toured the state fairly extensively, while Obama has made only 3 stops in-state (he visited Beckley and Charleston in March, and he came back to Charleston again today). The polling averages show Clinton leading Obama between 30-40 points, which is likely where the final result will be.

While many folks are worried that an extremely bad result affecting Obama's chances tomorrow, the truth is that Clinton will recoup roughly half of the superdelegates that Obama has netted during the past week. It's going to be his second-worst loss after Arkansas, but the math isn't fungible at this point such that the media narrative will flip against him.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

About a week ago or so, I made my preliminary estimate of how the North Carolina delegate breakdown would be. I gave Barack Obama a net margin of 11 delegates (63-52), with a net margin in the popular vote of 16%. This was before the media wasted more of everyone's time over Reverend Wright and the increasingly one-sided discussion over the merits of a 'gas tax holiday'. Suffice to say, the latest polling average for North Carolina shows a race that has tightened a bit. As a result, I still think that Obama will win the state in double digits, albeit by a lower margin. However, I don't think that his margin of victory in the delegate count will change.

Follow me beneath the fold for an analysis on my updated prediction...

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Almost a month ago, I did a preliminary analysis of how the Indiana election would break down. It was something of a shot at the dark at the time, given the relative lack of polling that had occurred in the state at the time. Based on some of the feedback in the diary, along with my own observations (from Pennsylvania, albeit) of how the race has shaped up in the past few weeks, I still think that Hillary Clinton is going to win the state despite the disproportionate amount of time Barack Obama has focused on the state (when compared to North Carolina, the other state voting on Tuesday). That being said, even though I think the popular vote margin I predicted last time (an 8% victory for Clinton) will only shrink slightly, she is likely to net out only 4 delegates (down from my initial prediction of 6) over Obama as a result of Tuesday's primary.

Follow me below the fold for my updated analysis on the district breakdown...

Now that Pennsylvania has gone to the polls and voted (and seemingly validated my 85-73 prediction in favor of Clinton), I'll be taking a stab at predicting the delegate allocation in North Carolina, the state that has the most delegates remaining. Looking at the polling average from the state, it's obvious that Barack Obama has been leading in the polls by double digits over Hillary Clinton for some time now. While the most recent polls show some tightening - mostly as a result of Clinton gaining strength among white voters - Obama still holds a double-digit victory and should still win the state handily.

Below the fold, you'll find by district-by-district breakdown of how I think the delegates will be allocated, accompanied with my commentary...

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

A couple weeks back, I made a preliminary estimate of the results of the Pennsylvania primary. Now that we have arrived at the weekend before the Tuesday election, I'd like to revisit my initial prediction and adjust it, taking into account some of the feedback I received on the entry, as well as some observations as to what has happened since then. I still believe Hillary Clinton is on track to win the primary here, but the margin of victory will be decreased from my initial estimate. Instead, she'll only pick up 12 pledged delegates (as opposed to 18), and I do think that her margin of victory will fall into the single digits.

Please see below the fold for the particular congressional districts that I made adjustments to...

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

While most of the political attention these days is aimed at Pennsylvania's April 22nd primary, perhaps the more important date is May 6th - when both Indiana and North Carolina hold their primaries. With a combined 187 pledged delegates at stake, it is the day that has the most pledged delegates remaining. After those two states (along with Guam, on May 3rd) have voted, 61.7% (349) of the remaining 566 pledged delegates will have been allocated. With North Carolina shaping up to be a blowout for Barack Obama, most of the attention is being focused on Indiana, which is shaping up to be a swing state in the primary.

The most recent polls show Hillary Clinton with a lead in the single digits - which is my starting point for my analysis of the state. Please find my district-by-district prediction for Indiana below the fold...

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

As I promised in a previous diary, I would go into further detail about the predictions that I made above. My analysis is largely based off of the county-by-county breakdowns of the vote given at CNN, while any demographic data is from what I have found at the U.S. Census Bureau. I recognize that a lot of my predictions may be largely based on generalizations and historical observations, but I think that, for the most part, they will hold up.

For the first part of my series, I will start off chronicling my predicted results in Pennsylvania, the next state to hold a nominating contest (on April 22nd). Below the fold, find my district-by-district delegate projections...

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Although many of us would like the presidential primary to be over sooner rather than later, it doesn't appear that Hillary Clinton will withdraw from the race before Montana and South Dakota - the last two states to vote - have had their say on June 3rd. With that being said, I'd like to post my projections of what will happen in the last 8 states to vote. In the next couple of weeks, I will go about chronicling each district in each state and my reasoning behind my apportionment of delegates. All of my delegate numbers are based on the allocations that appear at The Green Papers. Furthermore, as I have no idea what may occur in Guam or Puerto Rico (or have accurate numbers on delegate apportionment in Puerto Rico; TGP is missing some districts, it appears), I won't venture guesses as to their results.

So below, please find my preliminary estimates for delegate apportionment, followed by a conclusion of where the delegate numbers will stand at the end of the voting season. Note that all of my estimates may change in my state-by-state analysis, as this is something of an incomplete analysis as of now.

(cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Almost 5 months ago, I wrote a diary explaining that Hillary Clinton was indeed an electable candidate for the presidency. Much has changed since that time: John McCain resuscitated his campaign and is now the presumptive nominee on the Republican side, while Clinton and Barack Obama continue to battle for the Democratic nomination - although it is becoming increasingly likely that Obama will be the nominee. I decided to do a quick-and-dirty assessment of potential general election results would be if either Obama or Clinton were the nominee against McCain.

The results? Barack Obama would defeat by a large margin in the Electoral College - more than 100 electoral votes - while Hillary Clinton would barely clear the 270 electoral votes required - and that is by giving her the benefit of the doubt in Pennsylvania, where current polling shows her in a statistical tie with McCain. Follow me below the fold...

I know that Senator Russ Feingold is a hero to many of us. He was the only senator to vote against the Patriot Act, and he has been a voice of strong opposition to the invasion and occupation in Iraq from the beginning. That's why I was heartened to read this article from The Nation, where Feingold plainly expresses who he supported when he voted this past Tuesday:

Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, a progressive icon who briefly considered seeking the Democratic presidential nomination himself, said he voted in Tuesday's Wisconsin primary for Barack Obama.

Asked directly about his choice, Feingold answered directly.

"I voted for Barack Obama," said the senator, who indicated that he was "extremely likely" to cast his superdelegate vote at the Democratic National Convention for his colleague from Illinois.

Even if he doesn't formally endorse Obama before the convention, voting for someone in their capacity as an American citizen is about as close as one can get. I'm happy to see Senator Feingold support the most progressive candidate in this election.

(cross-posted at Daily Kos)

I didn't have a chance to watch the second GOP presidential debate - aside from not having cable television at my home in New York, I don't watch Fox News on principle. Nevertheless, the now-famous exchange between Rep. Ron Paul and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani was quite telling. It's also a sad state of political discourse in our country, particularly on the Republican side.

(cross-posted at Daily Kos)

I have been one of the more ardent supporters of the new congressional Democratic majority since they took office in early January. In my opinion, their first week on the job was quite successful, particularly in how unified the caucus was. And when there was criticism at Daily Kos of the week-old Democratic majority about their lack of action on Iraq after 10 days on the job, I defended our congressional leadership, noting that they had already accomplished a great deal and were beginning to talk up various plans for how to put an end to our involvement in Iraq.

It's been 2 months to the day that Democrats were inaugurated into the majority. At this point, the embarrassing lack of leadership from congressional Democrats needs to stop now. The more they fiddle while Baghdad burns, the more the Iraqi conflicts becomes our war - just as much as it has been George Bush's war.